Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 27/11/2024 11:58

The National Assembly's (NA) recent resolution on the socioeconomic development plan for 2025 set an objective for next year to be a year of acceleration and breakthrough to achieve the highest results of the five-year development plan between 2021 and 2025. The NA has set next year’s GDP growth target at 6.5-7 per cent, asking for efforts to achieve 7-7.5 per cent.

[aleman] 27/11/2024 11:13

An interesting RNS on 25th shows Gates Foundation increased large stake in VEIL.



Foreign investors were net buyers Of Vietnamese shares for a 4th consecutive day on Wednesday.

[aleman] 27/11/2024 09:10

For any newbies looking in, a tender offer was discussed and rejected last year after the biggest shareholder voiced discontent by voting to wind up. Since then VNH's tender offer has been so successful at shrinking the discount that it has traded recently at a premium. Since the VOF discount has continued to expand, maybe VOF will revisit this subject and possibly consider a partial tender?

[riskvsreward] 27/11/2024 08:38

Perhaps more micro than macro as Vof underperformed both veil and Vnh. Needs bigger buyback or tender offer.

[aleman] 27/11/2024 08:04

The recent weeks' foreign selling was reported as being down to Trump's election as per my next sentence you did not quote - not property and bond markets which have been improving this year as per numerous articles I've posted on this thread previously. Reports suggested it was not really anything wrong with Vietnam so much as repatriating funds to invest in US investments with improved outlooks on his election.

[amt] 26/11/2024 20:28

Aleman.
Has the tide turned after months of selling down in the wake of the property bond crisis and prosecutions?

When I wrote about that many months ago, posters here told me that had nothing to do with it since it was old news.

[aleman] 26/11/2024 11:58

The VOF discount shrank to -3.7% in early 2021. After a 12-month VNI bear market the 2022 peak discount was -25.6%. I take the current bull market as starting from the low of 1/12/22 and rising +24% and yet the discount is bigger now than at its worst in last bear market!

h ttps://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/I161/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-ord-$001

Edit - discount was 432.5/587 mid-morning = 26.3%. The share price has risen since but VNI also closed higher again. Foreigners were net buyers for a third consecutive day. Has the tide turned after months of selling down in the wake of the property bond crisis and prosecutions? We had a false dawn before more selling on Trump's win but that further selling now seems to have faded. Maybe investors are now thinking that a 10% Trump tariff on Chinese goods pushes business to Vietnamese exporters even more quickly?

[dickbush] 26/11/2024 10:33

Updating for the increase in the market overnight and decline the in the Dong v Sterling I get to a discount of 25.7%. Normal range 10-20% but can be over 30% at bear market lows.

It was only a few years ago that the discount got to less than 10%. My fading memory says 7%. That's the sort of discount we can expect to see if/when the Vietnam market is announced as moving to the Emerging Market Index/Indices. In fact, it will be doubly good news as the markets itself is driven up by Index buyers. So, with that in mind, my shares are locked away to endure whatever downside occurs in the short run. Ditto my holding in VEIL.

[31337 c0d3r] 26/11/2024 02:46

"kenmitch25 Nov '24 - 09:32 - 2311 of 2324
0 0 0
31337 CoDcR

You’ve misunderstood my post. [...]"


I'm not sure why you've convinced yourself my post was about you. I never mentioned your name. Guilty conscience or just PPD Syndrome I can only assume. Anyway thanks for the negative, it seems QuePassa was right about you.

[quepassa] 25/11/2024 17:49

ken,

"Too many ADVFN threads are ruined by similar idiots."

Own goal - there , ken.

As you are the biggest idiot of all.

Your rudeness , pontificating self-rightousness , talking down to everyone combined with your nauseating sanctimonious attitude is well-known and despised by all.

If ADVFN is not good enough for you, yes please do everybody a favour and stick to the other "quality subscription site" because you are really not wanted or liked here on ADVFN.

[foetus in your brain] 25/11/2024 17:17

I can vouch for ken. I've let my stocko sub lapse but the investment trust thread he set up there was excellentWe really need to be a bit more tolerant. There are few enough people looking at the trusts sector without unnecessary bickering.

[kenmitch] 25/11/2024 17:08

That bile from Que Passa is typical of him. He did the same on the Cavendish thread and then deleted all his posts when rumbled except the one where he told me to GFY! Where’s the evidence for his claims? I post mainly on Stockopedia, a quality subscription site, and if anyone else here does then have a look at my posts there to judge for yourselves.

More fool me for wasting time on all this including posting here in the first place. Too many ADVFN threads are ruined by similar idiots.

Here’s the link to that Cavendish thread and all the posts Que Passa subsequently deleted. See the posts from November 11th.

[amt] 25/11/2024 12:59

Blimey, It's worse than I thought.

[kenmitch] 25/11/2024 12:21

What is clear is the huge underperformance of VOF compared with VNH for a long time now. VOF is down about 14% from 503p on 26th Nov 2022 to 435p today. VNH is UP 30% from 336p to 402p.

A key reason for the big difference is VNH goimg from a big discount to a slight premium recently while VOF as Aleman is pointing out is still at a wide discount. Even allowing fir that VNH performance has been superior but not by that much.This makes VOF the Vietnam choice for me now,but for my already holding both VOF and VNH and both are big successes in my portfolio.

[yump] 25/11/2024 12:15

In the recent spirit of the thread I believe wind up should have a hyphen, as in “wind-up”;
;-)

[kenmitch] 25/11/2024 12:02

amt.

You’re clearly a wind up merchant.

[aleman] 25/11/2024 11:40

I have been reporting over several months on rises in Vietnamese market predicted earnings for 2024 and 2025 as they have risen, and it's mostly been referenced with links. The most recent 25% rise in consensus market EPS was from London Stock Exchange Group as reported by Edisons. It is not my forecast. I suggest you write to them to see if they stand by their forecast.

Bearish posts are welcome if they provide useful information to consider.

[yump] 25/11/2024 11:14

If anyone thinks this thread is any sort of rose-tinted echo chamber then that judgement is just plain weird and would make me very wary of their judgement on investment in general.

“Glad I sold at xx pence because of my amazing judgement”. Retrospective success statements. As backed up by the low share price presumably, never posted at spikes.

Can’t people just keep their macho egos at bay? Go displace it into something constructive.

[shaker45] 25/11/2024 10:51

Taking offence? Not at all. Just bored with aimless posts, mostly overly negative and not adding anything useful

[amt] 25/11/2024 10:20

If you want to get into market performance the Vietnam main index is down 18% over 3 years.
Ft index up 14%
I think my assessment is broadly correct.
You would have been better of investing elsewhere certainly in the last 3 years and generally over 5 years.
I stand by my statement.
Does Aleman stand by his recent analysis of earnings ?
Do you stand by your assertion Ken that I am posting nonsense ?

[amt] 25/11/2024 10:15

I would say up 20% over 5 years depending on exactly which date you choose which isn't progress in my book. I would have got more in the bank.
Even 30% is a poor return compared to elsewhere. That's debatable and depends on what you think is a good return.
You quibble about that Ken infact you don't quibble you slam my post as nonsense but you don't quibble about the misleading statement about earnings growth that Aleman wrote which was completly contradicted by the VOF monthly report.
That's important because anyone reading this BB could have been mislead.

[kenmitch] 25/11/2024 09:32

31337 CoDcR

You’ve misunderstood my post. I’m all FOR sensible bearish posts and would like to see more of them, including on this thread. E.g a legitimate debate is the underperformance of VOF compared with VNH for a long time now.

What is wrong is when posters like amt post nonsense. E.g on the performance of Vietnam generally.

Yes …for a while now the Vietnam index has been stuck in a narrow 1200 to 1300 trading range.

BUT despite that over 5 years it is up 30%.

In contrast the best performing UK index the FTSE100 is up only 13% over 5 years.

The FTSE 250 is flat over 5 years.

And the awful performing FTSE AIM ibex is DOWN 30% over the last 5 years.

(Yes. Vietnam and everywhere has way underperformed the very high flying US and the likes of India and Japan have done better than Vietnam) but 30% in 5years compares very favourably with the UK which is where a lot of UK posters invest.)

Come on AMT. what’s your reply to those facts? I.e what is your evidence for your claims about Vietnam performance? Please post it for us.

[aleman] 25/11/2024 09:31

Friday's and Monday's gain to add to NAV means the discount could be well over 26% now, though the exchange rate movements sometimes catch me out. One wonders just how far the growing discount can go. Add back the 23p that was wiped off the private investements (but still trying to reclaim some ) at the finals and NAV would actually be close to a 2-year plus NAV high. You would have no idea if you looked at the share price.