Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 02/8/2020 16:09

A slowly worsening situation here. Now 6 deaths and 193 cases in the last week. However, all stem from the Danang cluster and I do not think the VNI will crash unless it begins spreading uncontrollably and forces cities to lockdown again, which of course could happen. Thin ice.

[digitaria] 31/7/2020 15:49

Thanks for the regular updates andyj. Our Man in Nam ;-)

[andyj] 31/7/2020 15:08

Another 37 announced today. The government updates twice a day at 6am and 6pm. As yet none outside of the Danang cluster, other than relatives. Whether it stays like that remains to be seen.

[shaker44] 31/7/2020 09:55

Sick elderly man with kidney problems. They have done so well to avoid the inevitable for so long

[steve73] 31/7/2020 08:43

Sad news, first Covid death confirmed in VN a few minutes ago...

[shaker44] 31/7/2020 05:49

Now above 800 again. Maybe that is trying to be the floor. We should expect cases in HCM and Ha Noi as tens of thousands of tests are carried out on Da Nang returners and their contacts. I assume negatives will be re-tested to cover false negatives so new cases will arise for 2-3 weeks imo. Sentiment will be uncertain through August even though case numbers are relatively low. Vn govt highly proactive as they pursue containment. Great job

[andyj] 31/7/2020 03:41

VNI back below 800 currently after 45 new cases were announced, totalling 93 in the second wave. All are connected to the hospital in Danang, which along with Hoi An begins lockdown today. HCMC has no closed all bars from today. I reiterate that whilst these numbers might seem low to Europeans, our healthcare system will struggle to cope with a widespread breakout. Fear is ramping up here but so is a steely resolve.

[cfro] 29/7/2020 17:50

None of this is not in the least bit surprising to me. Vietnam cannot be a country in isolation from everywhere else and expect to keep the virus out.

[andyj] 29/7/2020 14:39

12 new cases altogether today, including one in Hanoi and two in HCMC, who traveled from Danang. The authorities are desperately tracing all contacts but the question is how much it has spread from them and the potential economic impact of another lockdown. Further downside remains likely IMO. NEW COVID-19 CASES IN VIETNAM ?The 447th case: Male, 23 years old, Hanoi.From July 12 to 15, he travelled in Da Nang city.On July 23, he had fever and cough.From July 25th to 28th, he self-quarantined.?The 448th case: Female, 21 years old, Ea Tiêu ward, C? Kuin district, DakLak province.From June 22 to July 17, she was working as an intern in Da Nang hospital. On July 20, she had fever and sore throat.On July 27, she was treated at Highlands General hospital.?The 449th case: Male, 57 years old, American, Liên Chi?u district, Da Nang.On June 26, he had fever, cough, shortness of breath and went to Hoan My Da Nang hospital.From July 6 to 20, he was treated at Da Nang hospital.On July 20, he relocated to Ch? R?y hospital, HCMC.From July 21 to 27, he was treated at City International hospital, HCMC.?The 450th case: Female, 46 years old, the caregiver of the 449th case.On July 26, she had runny nose, muscle fatigue and tiredness.

[shaker44] 29/7/2020 12:01

Vn down 2.8% today but I have seen a year end forecast of +15%. The 8 new covid today were all clusters around the same hospital. If you are a trader you might sweat the daily moves bus as an investor, I only want to assess if the upside is greater than the downside over time. So I am a buyer at these levels.

[digitaria] 29/7/2020 11:19

And the announced NAV has bounced up a little today. Discount to NAV now about 18%.

[shaker44] 29/7/2020 02:10

Nice bounce in VN index yesterday +3.6%

[andyj] 29/7/2020 01:28

Now a further 22 cases, currently all in the Danang area. The country is waiting anxiously to see if it spreads outside the region. If it does you will get greater 'bargains' ahead. Personally I would not add at this point.

[shaker44] 28/7/2020 12:00

No intention of selling! More likely to buy at these bargain prices!!

[digitaria] 28/7/2020 11:26

Big drop in the NAV today. I have sold half of my holding, but with a view to buying back in later.

[steve73] 27/7/2020 14:29

htTps://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1174941-vietnam-to-evacuate-80000-people-from-danang-after-virus-outbreak/ Seems a bit OTT, but then this is how they have managed the numbers..

[shaker44] 27/7/2020 12:16

4 cases, 700+ contacts tested-all negative. Vn govt all over this far more so than any other country except China. Of course locals are nervous and of course it affects sentiment, but a drop of almost 10% in VN index looks a tad overdone. Buying opportunity imo, but we will see what emerges over the coming days. False negative tests are common...

[shaker44] 26/7/2020 17:12

We should be grateful the second ripple is only 4 cases. Need to await results of their contacts tests. In Thailand recently one infected egyptian airman in quarantine went rogue, visiting Malls with his party. 7000 possible contacts tested. So far, ALL negative

[royaloak] 24/7/2020 19:54

hydrogen economy Many thanks for that excellent round up, the information is very useful, I will examine it in more detail over the weekend, it's very much appreciated.

[hydrogen economy] 24/7/2020 17:18

royaloak VND is interesting, historically it was seen as very weak, but over last 20+ years Government has had a managed exchange targeted to limit the change against USD (I think to below about 3.5% per year). Since Jan 2000, average devaluation is 2.5%, but much of that occurred during the GFC. VN needs to balance the benefits of low VND for exports against inflation effect for imported goods and risk US calls it out as a currency manipulator. VN has been reducing interest rates like most countries, which would normally cause currency to weaken but many countries have cut further, retail bank term deposits are around 6.5% down from over 7% in Q1. VND dipped Vs USD at start of COVID but has dipped back to Q1 level, currently 23180, that was probably more about a USD safe haven effect. Vinacapital put out an excellent note on Fx during the crisis. www.vinacapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Economist-Note-on-VND-Depreciation-23-March-2020.pdf GBP has been much more volatile than VND, especially since Brexit. Many commentators are predicting USD to weaken having distributed several trillion in stimulus and bail-outs, so VND may if anything strengthen but I doubt Govt would allow that to go too far too fast.

[andyj] 24/7/2020 14:18

I am afraid tonight we just had the first case of what appears to be community transmission in 99 days. Tested positive in Danang and they are tracing all contacts, but he recently attended a wedding...

[caradog] 22/7/2020 10:17

With no immunity in the population, Vietnam has to be extremely vigilant about any imported infection. They have had astounding success when you consider that they have had zero Covid deaths, while the “advanced̶1; UK has probably seen more deaths in 3 months than the number of civilians killed by the Luftwaffe in 6 years of WW2. Hats off to the Vietnamese!

[shaker44] 21/7/2020 15:06

So what isn't true??? Please be more clear!

[andyj] 21/7/2020 14:52

Not quite true. No community transmission for a couple of months now. All cases since have been quarantined on arrival. After a mandatory two weeks, they home isolate and are checked by officials randomly. Please check facts!