Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 27/11/2021 13:12

https://vietnamnews.vn/opinion/1086803/viet-nam-to-focus-more-on-covid-19-hospitalisations-deaths-rather-than-case-counts.html

[exotic] 24/11/2021 19:20

Bit of a surprise to see VOF and VEIL close down -0.6% and -0.7% respectively today, while both NAVs increased, the VNI closed up +1.13% the previous session and +1.72% last night, setting another new stock market all-time-high. Nothing to sweat over of course; it's a long journey.

[dickbush] 24/11/2021 11:35

This may explain the performance over the past two days. https://en.vietnamplus.vn/german-journal-highlights-vietnamese-stock-markets-prospects/215964.vnp

[dickbush] 16/11/2021 09:14

I'm not complaining, but after today's market decline of 0.7% I'm surprised that VOF is unchanged following yesterday's big rise. Assuming market performance today, VOF's discount to NAV is 15.5%.

[hydrogen economy] 15/11/2021 13:20

That rise is more impressive noting that the dollar has risen ~5% against the USDX index over 12 months. The VND is at the highest level vs USD since 2016. Historically the VND has always got weaker, this year saw the first sustained rise against the dollar since the current Dong was adopted nationally in 1978. The Government intervene to manage the currency, trying to balance competitive exports and inflation, particularly energy and major capital goods. Higher inflation, especially in energy may have tipped that policy balance. The US investigation of currency manipulation may be a factor, they removed the finding but the threat still stands and VN wants to keep on the right side of USA. Several SEA currencies were strong through the early 2000s as their economies grew rapidly, (although some have since weakened). Arguably VND is due a similar period of strength, which should be supportive due to translation of VN Assets to GBP.

[dickbush] 15/11/2021 09:28

Not the most important variable for the NAV but I see the Dong has gained 2.3% versus the Dollar over the past 12 months. That's pretty impressive considering the strength of the trade weighted Dollar. More importantly, with commodities, generally, priced in Dollars, that should help reduce domestic inflation somewhat. I haven't seen any details but I keep reading that the government is preparing fiscal stimulus. The size, I guess, will depend on the extent of the economic rebound in the 4th qtr. https://hanoitimes.vn/without-raising-public-debt-vietnam-would-miss-opportunities-for-growth-investment-minister-319255.html

[exotic] 08/11/2021 19:10

Also Peter Hames, Non-Executive Director, today bought another £41,822 worth. Interestingly, just before his purchase I see another 3 large transactions of the following values: £130,250 £260,500 £390,750

[shaker44] 08/11/2021 09:49

Exactly. I am certainly not 2nd guessing the vn govt. Let the market decide

[dickbush] 08/11/2021 09:13

Infections have doubled in the last 16 days, but the deaths in the last week are 450. The switch to emphasising the economic recovery appears to be what the market, at least, wants to see, as judged by its recent recovery and another all-time high again today.

[shaker44] 05/11/2021 13:25

I guess this only matters if you plan to sell should the govt adopt a covid strategy you disagree with?

[exotic] 05/11/2021 12:37

Well, I agree with all of the above. The strict lockdown brought cases right down, and since it ended there's a feature on the WHO chart. My question is really aimed at anyone in Vietnam, does the gov intend to implement another or let vaccines be the way out, as in the UK? Https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/vn See the 'Daily' view

[hpcg] 05/11/2021 10:04

It is also a fantastic hedge versus a plummet in Sterling, an event that is certainly not out of the question.

[lageraemia] 05/11/2021 10:01

I must say I'm really comfortable with holding VOF right now..... Vietnam is aurguably a much lower risk geopolitically than the 'main' markets, and demographically its a diamond, with little to drive its younger population to emmigrate. The market is on a sensible PE, they produce things and there's a big discount to NAV for VOF. Holding for the win and adding on dips!

[shaker44] 05/11/2021 01:31

Exotice: actually covid is well contained now and cases are very low for a 95m population country. And yes, Vax rates are accelerating. The bigger challenge may be to staff up factories etc again

[rochefort17300] 04/11/2021 23:20

This morning I listened to the VINA presentation, very professional, Andy Ho is om the ball with his info ,this young nation of 95 million with 60% under 35 have a wish to see their standard of living rise quickly.. The nations reaction to the virus has been draconian with total lockdown in the cities. The aim today is to get the economy up and running again. Their new found friends the UK & USA are shipping large stocks of vaccines out to them. Containment of Chinese expansion in the South China Sea is a priority. Next year the economy should grow by 7%

[exotic] 04/11/2021 14:43

Any idea what Vietnam plan to do about rising Covid cases? Just live with it and focus on accelerating the vaccine rollout?

[dickbush] 28/10/2021 12:42

Understood, hydrogen. Infection numbers have stalled after declining substantially but, like almost everywhere else, Vietnam has switched from a target of zero infections to getting the economy up and running again (while they vaccinate a million-plus a day). After the 6% GDP decline in the 3rd qtr, we should see a major snap-back in the 4th qtr. I'm hoping evidence of that will be forthcoming before year-end to give us further upside. This website is very timely with the data: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/indicators

[digitaria] 28/10/2021 09:49

VOF seems to have recovered from a period during which its NAV discount was languishing down at almost 25%. Don't understand what happened there, since the other Vietnam trusts seemed to rerate. VOF discount now at 19% or so. Historically, it was more like 15%. I topped up yesterday, as the market looked buoyant, but this did not seem fully reflected in the share price. Looks good for the medium term.

[hpcg] 27/10/2021 14:53

Excellent monthly update, some good growth documented.

[shaker44] 27/10/2021 09:14

I am in both and hope that vnh may repeat the recent tender exercise, delivering cash back to holders.

[ceaserxzy] 27/10/2021 08:38

This used to trade at a lower discount than vnh but it is now on a much higher discount than vnh. On this basis I have switched out of vnh into vof.

[dickbush] 27/10/2021 08:10

hydrogen, I don't see a new high on the 18th, but we hit a new closing high today at 1423.02. At £5 VOF's discount is circa 19.5%. If it sold at the same discount as VEIL it would be over £5.30.

[hydrogen economy] 19/10/2021 03:40

Good rise in recent weeks, new all time high yesterday. Discount currently still over 20%, but sentiment seems to have shifted so we'll see. Happy to be holding here and VEIL. © H2 áp phích tuyên truyền

[amt] 14/10/2021 19:40

Like every country in the world. Market pe of 16 looks too cheap for the fastest growing economy in the world.