Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 10/6/2024 13:36

608p NAV is highest for a long time. We must be benefitting from VOF's "unlisted" holdings, which are actually traded like AIM. The unlisted index is up around 15% in the last 4 weeks in almost a straight line. Plus the main VN index closed up slightly today to finally set a new 25-month high.

[hpcg] 06/6/2024 20:50

It is very sad. Though this sounds mercenary good on the company for having a succession plan. This is one of the events they exist for.

[donald pond] 06/6/2024 18:51

Very sad to read that. Puts things in perspective for sure.

[spangle93] 06/6/2024 17:53

Yes, indeed - very unexpected - such a young age. Sympathies to anyone related, staff and colleagues, and anyone else that knew him

Citywire's lead item

[aleman] 06/6/2024 14:12

Wow. Some from the company, or maybe even relatives, might look in here, possibly. Sympathies to them if so.

[aleman] 06/6/2024 08:15

UPCOM "unlisted" index up yet again. It's been going up quickly in a straight line for 6 weeks and is hitting repeated 2-year highs. The Main VN index of large caps was slapped down again in last hour. It's the 4th consecutive day it's been trying to close above resistance only to get knocked back in the last hour. The Hanoi index of small and midcaps is behaving similarly to the main VN index - stuck at resistance rather than bouncing off it or progressing. The local price of gold fell again.

[aleman] 05/6/2024 07:22

Up again. New 2-year high for "unlisted" index and main index will be, too, if it holds for an hour. The local gold premium is now just under 10% from 23% a few weeks back. Bursting the gold bubble helping stocks?

Edit - main index knocked back in last 45 mins to close marginally up, so still no "breakout" even though it's clearly been trying for a few days.

[aleman] 04/6/2024 16:20

Has anybody any insight into why share buy-backs have restarted after 2 months off? Is it likely to be because the recent rising share price made it difficult to meet the parameters set?

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited (LSE: VOF) commences share repurchases on December 7, 2023, under the program mandated by the shareholders in the Annual General Meeting held on December 6, 202. As per the mandate, the company is authorized to repurchase up to 14.99% of its issued share capital. The minimum price which may be paid for an ordinary share is $0.01 and the maximum price which may be paid will not exceed the higher of 105% above the average of the middle market quotations for the five consecutive dealing days ending on the dealing day immediately preceding the date on which the purchase is made and the higher of the price quoted for the last independent trade and the highest current independent bid.

[aleman] 04/6/2024 06:28

NAV made it over £6 at last, yesterday, plus the main index is flirting with a new 21-month high just before the close. (0.1% off.) Can it do it after about 2 weeks of trying?

The UPCOM Index of smaller "unlisted" stocks is hitting repeated 2-year highs. VOF own a few of these.

[aleman] 03/6/2024 14:51

It's trying for a 21-month high.

[aleman] 03/6/2024 09:10

Main index closed up 1.5%.

This article just appeared about the gold local price. Vietnamese are a bit faddish with investment so maybe they'll look for another horse to back now.



Vietnam gold price has been dropping in over a week and is now 13% higher than the global rate, a smaller margin compared to 23% a week ago.

[amt] 03/6/2024 08:39

Asian stock markets surging this morning.

[aleman] 03/6/2024 07:29

Gold down 3% today in Vietnam. Looks like steps to calm the local gold bubble are finally working. Shares are up strongly today - well over 1% up just before the close. Will the stockmarket and/or property become favourite destinations for investment again?

[aleman] 31/5/2024 09:04

More signs property is going from bust to boom again (as planning restrictions ease).



The Hanoi index (more small and midcaps) squeaked to a new 9-month high yesterday and the Unlisted index (a bit like AIM?) also edged to a new 2-year high. They don't seem to affect VOF NAV much but will encourage a positive outlook amongst Vietnamese stock investors, while being another sign that the domestic economy is improving. Volumes of shares traded across all indices look to be on the rise and are not so far off from the highs of late 2021 again. Also, attempts to calm the frothy local gold market possible seem to be starting to see a little success which might encourage investors back out of gold into other assets like shares and property.

[my retirement fund] 30/5/2024 16:33

Fair point amt and if your in it for the long run shouldn't really matter

[amt] 30/5/2024 14:21

Yes Aleman on the surface it doesn't make sense but I suspect it's foreigners like me who have only realised the extent of the risk involved investing in Vietnam. Very high risk so would expect a discount. If they can win the battle against corruption then it should become less risky.

[aleman] 30/5/2024 09:24

Vietnamese industrial production rises again to an annual increase of +8.9% in May, from +6.3% last month and +0.5% a year ago.



International trade continues to boom.



Vietnam’s trade surplus hit $8.01 billion between January and May, with $156.77 billion in export revenue and $148.76 billion in imports, up 15.2% and 18.2% year-on-year, respectively.

The export figure for May was a record for that month of the year and the import figure for May was an absolute record for any month.




Full steam ahead, then. It's bonkers that foreigners continue to sell out of Vietnamese shares when the economy is looking like one of the strongest in the world at the moment as booming trade drives strong recovery in the domestic market. Where would the stockmarket be if foreigners were buying?

Remember that the Vietnamese stockmarket is on a lower than average P/E, despite the return of strong growth, and VOF is on a considerably higher discount than normal. There could be a big swing here if and when ratings return to normal if strong growth continues.

[amt] 30/5/2024 06:56

If we knew when the top of the market was investing would be easy.

[my retirement fund] 30/5/2024 06:48

Buying at a market top is never a good idea. I've recently only been able to take profits in a few companies, some that I've had to hold for multi years to get a small profit out of. Lloyd's, Ebox and Marston spring to mind, albeit it the former have paid handsome dividends for my pain in waiting!

[amt] 30/5/2024 06:26

I am starting to regret buying back although much lower quantities than I held previously. A lot of volatility in the stock market at the moment.

[aleman] 28/5/2024 09:52

The UPCOM "unlisted public company" index actually hit a new 2-year high a few days ago and it has consolidated since. Technically, the chart looks very enticing, as if poised for the next move up. I believe VOF is invested in some of these.

[aleman] 23/5/2024 09:45

A rise of over 1% today puts the Vietnamese stockmarket just a few points off a 25-month high and means the discount here has probably nudged over 20% again.

[aleman] 21/5/2024 09:32

I thought we'd have been holding above 600p by now but the £ is up by 3% v the Dong over the last month. I suppose NAV of 594p is pretty good if you make allowance for that.

[spangle93] 21/5/2024 09:22

Citywire's new IT manager ratings award VOF managers an A



Very impressive, as only 51 managers make the grade for their 3 year performance, and to get an A you have to be in the top 30-60% of this elite

The only thing that takes the shine off is that VNH managers got a AAA rating for being in the top 10% of the short list

[aleman] 20/5/2024 06:45

It was a weak April stockmarket performance but the market has since completely bounced back on digesting a good reporting season. The outlook seems to be confirming that the recovery is turning out stronger than predicted. (Will VOF's property bias help, after hindering for a couple of years?)

Looking ahead, we anticipate significant improvement as Vietnam’s corporate earnings outlook turns upward, a trend that started in late 2023 and has continued into 2024. We have revised our earnings forecast upward from 10-15% to 15-20% for 2024 and also 2025. The recovery of property launches is expected to boost pre-sales and enhance the profitability outlook for real estate developers. This improvement should also translate into better asset quality for banks over the long term. In terms of valuation, Vietnam remains attractive with a market trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.1x, which remains at a 20% discount compared to ASEAN peers. Considering the potential for robust compound earnings growth over the next two years, we believe the Vietnam market presents an attractive opportunity for investors considering allocating capital beyond other emerging and regional markets.

The stockmarket is up again and on the cusp of a 25-month high today and should see NAV push through 600p when reported tomorrow.