Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[31337 c0d3r] 16/4/2024 21:11

GB News reports the largest proportion of illegal immigrants arriving in the UK on small boats... are from Vietnam. Surely prospects are not so bad in Vietnam?

Freeview CH 236
FreesatHD CH 216

[milesy] 13/4/2024 15:47

Momentum seems to be building around the relocation from China to Vietnam (and India) of manufacturing operations by a number of industry giants, particularly in IT and electronics.

As long as government is broadly supportive, long term economic prospects look good:



Good to see the share price breakout this week.

[brucie5] 13/4/2024 12:28

VOF on a tear this week. Gap goes up to 5.20; and then it's in BO.

[31337 c0d3r] 12/4/2024 10:58

Aleman - also the prospect of Emerging Market status, what would that add to the £8 prediction?

[aleman] 12/4/2024 10:21

So the discount is finally closing. 510p would be about normal. Then we just need the Vietnamese Market to return to a normal rating but EPS should grow strongly over the next couple of years, too, with GDP growth of 6% or more expected. So, in two years, GDP +12%, earnings +20%(probably more if GDP right) and rating +20%. I'd guess VOF shares at 800p or so in two years.

Now what will the next black swan be?

[arja] 12/4/2024 10:14

but nice breakout shown on VOF chart and more in this one

[arja] 12/4/2024 10:13

yes , sad that Vietnam still regards itself as a communist country and never moved to a democracy .Ironically , Russia is not a communist country but just run by a murderous thug with him and his fellow mafia thugs being rich while the indoctrinated masses are poor with most admiring Putin !

[31337 c0d3r] 11/4/2024 13:58

I won't be comfortable with my investments in Vietnam if they join Russia, China, Iran, and the rest of the world's corrupt scum in the BRICS.

[aleman] 11/4/2024 08:18

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[aleman] 10/4/2024 09:03

Vietnamese March electricity production of 24.1k GWh is a seasonal record and +9.5% on the 22.0k GWh of March last year. It looks like power consumption might be returning to strong growth again after a slower spell in 2022 and 2023.

[aleman] 09/4/2024 14:51

Discount finally closing? Allowing for today's market rise, it still looks to have recovered to under 20%. That still leaves quite a bit to go to the more normal 15% area - and lower in a bull market, which might be under way.

Is there any Vietnamese business sector left not firing on all four cylinders?

[aleman] 06/4/2024 21:00

Vietnamese car sales are about 250k+ per year so this is a big deal

[arja] 04/4/2024 14:49

VOF at last taking off as indices in Vietnam fell - beats me as FX movement not helping . Stupid me sold my modest holding at 464.5 on tuesday :)

[aleman] 02/4/2024 23:05

Could be a very interesting year for property exposure.

[aleman] 31/3/2024 13:44

Q1 GDP growth ahead of forecasts in HCMC.



International trade is booming:



Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of US$8.08 billion, up 63.9% year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2024, reported the General Statistics Office (GSO) on Friday. In the period, total export-import turnover hit $178.04 billion, up 15.5% from the same period last year.

[arja] 28/3/2024 14:09

disappointing performance again today after Vietnam indices rose again modestly .
Elbrus55- capitalism is far from perfect especially under the Tory clowns as is democracy but far better than communism which you seem to be a fan of . just look at China and North Korea or are you a fan of Kim Jong Un too:) ?

[aleman] 28/3/2024 09:24

All time high is starting to come into view:

[elbrus55] 27/3/2024 15:41

Yes keep in mind that IN isThe world's most populous countryThe world's third largest economy by GDP PPPAn MSCI EM consistent country VN is none of those things. Mostly known for having a communist government which successfully beat the scourge of Western capitalism in a war when all the odds seemed against them and at terrible human loss . The government nationalized 100% of the land and has still never sold a single square metre.... But great investment potential!

[mancman1] 27/3/2024 14:52

I think the real problem here is the private equity.
RCP has an even higher discount than VOF, and the main factor appears to be market suspicion of the valuations given to private equity. RCP protests that most of its holdings are near coming to market, but so far this has not worked. Ironic that not so long ago RCP always traded at a premium.

Not long ago Scottish Mortgage had a similar discount, but it has narrowed it considerably, partly because of a large share buyback. So far though the share buyback hasn't worked for RCP. Another private equity trust with an even bigger discount is ICGT.

[aleman] 27/3/2024 09:35

Partial tender offers at IGC went extremely well. Perhaps it depends on the individual details. Meanwhile, buybacks continue to fail here in their main objective, with NAV at 602p and the discount nearly 24%.


Another VN Index 19-month high and up again today (just).

[hpcg] 27/3/2024 08:29

elbrus - agreed on all of that. The point of an IT is that there is always a market for the shares semi independent of the liquidity of the underlying. No one in an IT ever got gated.

[elbrus55] 27/3/2024 06:14

Tender offer involves them selling a large quantity of assets over a few days, say $100m worth. This doesn't seem very efficient where assets are illiquid. It is very difficult to do this with unlisted assets. Even listed assets arent all that liquid in VN. It means that they don't get a very good price when they sell in any volume - it will be a lot less than the current so called market price.If they tried to reduce this problem by mainly selling the big-cap stocks then the remainder portfolio becomes concentrated toward small companies and unlisted.Better to do what they doing, gradually realizing assets and using cash inflows and repurchasing their own shares a few $100k each day, or as the opportunity arises. They could maybe start doing this a bit faster as the discount grows.

[hpcg] 26/3/2024 19:55

70% of the companies I own, trading and ITs, are buying back at the moment. They represent a transfer of value to patient holders above and beyond trading results. The ITs buying back are all at big discounts and unfairly so. Trusts with big similar discounts unable to buy back fairly priced. We have the Great British investing public (sarcasm) to thank as they cream themselves over 4% bank account interest. Tenders are a waste of time. Like dividends they cause a point in time support that immediate collapses post rights. If anything moving to 4 dividends a year, completely standard in the US, which still has a stock market, encourages longer term holding and less of a drop in momentum on each ex-date.