Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 16/2/2024 09:41

not sure why buying in shares is a good thing as it normally means the management can find no better use for surplus funds . maybe this does not apply to ibvestment trusts . I must check VOF chart again today to see if it hold out any hope in near future . Vietnam indices still creeping up but that might mean a sharp correction is on the horizon .

[hpcg] 15/2/2024 14:04

Aleman - easy answer for that, the London market is broken. There are huge discounts in trusts all over. It is VNH which is the anomaly, and just goes to show how attractive momentum is over value. Meanwhile the company continues to buy in shares at this attractive discount, so I'm not hugely bothered.

[arja] 15/2/2024 14:04

yes , very disappointing Aleman and hard to understand and even down today with Vietnam indices up a bit and a weaker cable ! I still have a modest holding after selling half at about 453 ( wry smile ). VNH is a MM stock and I usually avoid such stocks

[aleman] 15/2/2024 11:37

After rises in Vietamese shares and the Dong on return from the Tet holiday, the discount here should be up to nearly 24% when it is announced tomorrow - close to record levels. VOF have completely failed to respond to rising markets and NAV in recent months. Can this continue? In the last 3 months, NAV is up about 24p while the shares are down pushing 30p. VNH is going up in line with NAV. Why are VOF going down to reach a near record discount? A reversal to the norm here could be very profitable. Interestingly, this should make VOF more attractive to other Vietnamese investment trusts than buying Vietnamese shares directly in the market.

[31337 c0d3r] 09/2/2024 17:25

arja,

I don't think so.

Seems you're forgetting about VNH

Look at the blue line in the chart Aleman posted.

[arja] 08/2/2024 07:17

31337,
not true and you must be looking at the wrong chart as both VOF and VEIL finished on low for the day and well off all time highs . :). Vietnam index is again up modestly today but not yet helping VOF and VEIL .

[aleman] 07/2/2024 17:07

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[31337 c0d3r] 07/2/2024 16:41

By comparison, Vietnam Holding is storming away, setting a new all-time-high today.

[arja] 07/2/2024 16:05

very disappointing today after Vietnam indices rising but maybe a weaker $US is the reason ?

[aleman] 06/2/2024 07:45

NAV jumped from 574p to 585p yesterday, taking the discount to over 22%, and the Vietnamese market was up again this morning. Discount has risen to over 22% - extreme by historic standards. Meanwhile VNH are flying on a discount of only 9%. It's time this one caught up. It looks to have broken its 2-year downtrend.


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[robow] 05/2/2024 10:53

ifShaker-if you read on down the email you get sent there is a place to click to remove the alerts

[aleman] 05/2/2024 09:14

VOF looks to be trying to break out of its 2-year downtrend today?

Another timely and useful indicator is electricity consumption. It's always growing in Vietnam but the rate of annual growth has been notably quicker in the last 5 months. There will be a little fluctuation with weather but it fits in well with GDP growth where the last 4 quarters have been on a strongly rising trend of 3.4%, 4.3%, 5.5% and 6.7%.

[aleman] 02/2/2024 11:45

Ho Chi Min City economy booming?



According to the people’s committee, retail sales of consumer goods and services surged by 24.4% year-on-year in January.


Property prices rose strongly in Hanoi in Q4 but not yet in HCMC.



The average primary prices of apartments in Hanoi have increased for 20 consecutive quarters amid scant supply while those in Ho Chi Minh City have cooled down, according to the latest Savills Vietnam report.

Primary asking prices of VND58 million ($2,363)/m2 net sellable area (NSA) in the fourth quarter of last year increased 7% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year.

[tournesol] 01/2/2024 15:58

There must be. I don't get such emails. Check your a/c settings

[shaker45] 01/2/2024 11:41

Although I filter aleman and his flow of comments, irritatingly I still get emails notifying a new VOF post. Is there a way of stopping that?

[aleman] 01/2/2024 10:52

Vietnamese stocks up and £ down today could (should?) see NAV jump and VOF shares break out of the 1-year wedge and 2-year downtrend. Or will the discount just keep getting bigger?

[aleman] 01/2/2024 10:09

Vietnam Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.9 to 50.3 in January, with modest rises in import and export orders driving a slight rise in production. Lack of confidence in future prospects saw staffing flat and backlogs continue to build.

[aleman] 31/1/2024 10:04

Testing all three moving averages now. Would be 482p and a 15-month high if it had its historical average discount of 15%.

[aleman] 31/1/2024 08:59

NAV of 566p is highest since mid-November, I think. Shares are about 15p lower than then, though. If the shares had kept up with NAV, the downtrend would have broken.

Where will local investment money go this year? (Probably gold and stockmarket rather than cash as rates fall.)

[milesy] 29/1/2024 11:36

The chart suggests a breakout may be imminent. As to direction....

[aleman] 29/1/2024 11:33

Continuing large tourism increases see Vietnam expect normal levels in 2024 after 70% of pre-Covid in 2023.

[aleman] 25/1/2024 15:37

Nguyen Duc Lenh, deputy director of the State Bank of Vietnam’s HCMC office said the booming labor market, services and tourism in Asia and its political and economic stability helped increase remittances.





+84%

[aleman] 23/1/2024 11:17

Earnings growth in Q4 accelerated to 7.7% from Q3's 6.7%, and 5.2% in Q2.

Maufacturing output rose to an annual +7.6% in December from 6.3% last month, 4.5% in October and some negative numbers in the Spring.

Car registrations in December were about 20% up on last year and highest for 19 months.

Foreign direct investment was slightly up to a new record Of $23bn last year with the increase in H2 being slightly larger than the H1 rise.


The latest figures to come out in December seem to suggest Vietnam is booming.

[aleman] 22/1/2024 12:08

NAV 561p. Discount still just over 20% despite the recent slight rise in share price. It's not keeping up, but reversion to the mean occurs eventually.

[aleman] 19/1/2024 13:41

Looking forward to 2024, we expect that interest rates will remain stable and domestic investors will be likely to continue diverting money away from bank deposits (owing to much lower deposit rates compared to 12 months ago) and back into the stock and real estate markets. Earnings growth and valuations will be an area of focus for investors, given the flat earnings growth for 2023, while valuations remain very attractive and below historical averages. This should be supportive for the stock market. Specifically, our Research team expect the earnings growth of Vietnam’s stock market to recover from no growth in 2023 to 10-15% earnings growth in 2024, although our team’s forecast tends to be slightly more conservative than market consensus. Furthermore, public equity valuations are at a 30% discount to regional peers, and with a PEG ratio of 0.7x, Vietnam continues to offer valuation appeal while delivering reasonable growth.

In addition, it is widely anticipated that implementation of the stock exchange’s new KRX trading system in 2024 will help solve certain technical problems, which in turn could lead to Vietnam being upgraded from a Frontier Market to an Emerging
Market by the FTSE-Russell Index later in the year. Expectations of an imminent market upgrade tends to attract more foreign inflows and will push daily liquidity past the current ~USD800 million daily level.

The SBV has set a 15% credit growth target for 2024 and announced its allocation of full-year credit quotas to banks right at the beginning of the year rather than staggered quarterly as in the past. A key factor in the Real Estate sector’s recovery will be how fast regulatory approvals for projects are obtained and the effectiveness of new laws to give clarity on real estate regulations. Hopes are high that a special session of the National Assembly in January will help solve some of the issues that have impeded real estate development, and we will report further on this once we have more clarity.