Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 23/2/2024 08:10

VOF could benefit from a predicted 13% rise in total market Vietnamese earnings in 2024 (flat 2023) and a rise in the lowly P/E of around 10 - two standard deviations below normal. This ignores and closure of the near-record (outside of Covid) 25% discount to NAV. This is all beginning to sound very positive. Q4 update:

[arja] 22/2/2024 16:23

PINT is the one which is not a SD stock but not a great looking shart like PIN which sadly attracts SD and hence no good for a quick trade :)

[aleman] 22/2/2024 10:23

India Capital Growth Fund IT fell to a 40%+ discount in March and April 2020. Discussions to solve the problem pushed it back up to more like 20% but it was implementation of a series of tender offers at 6% under par that brought the discount back to normal. I think just the offer being there was enough to restore confidence, without many actually taking it up. It now trades nearly at par and the shares went from a low of 32p to 184p now so a great success story. (The Indian bull market might have done it anyway in time but the first tender offer did genuinely look to be why the gap closed considerably in the short term.) That experience possibly highlights a significant opportunity here for the patient.

Looks like Vietnam is booming now:

Industrial output was up 18.3% in January (from 5.8% in Dec.) - the 8th highest month in a series going back to Jan 2009 and the 9th consecutive rise since April.

As well as tourism and agricultural exports booming, it looks like the tech sector is exploding:

[dpmcq] 22/2/2024 09:58

martincc

Said the same thing myself a few post ago.
Since Jan 22 there has been over 10 million shares bought back by the company.
If there was not enough shares on offer and an appetite for them with the buybacks this would be higher and a tighter NAV.
Can only hope the seller or sellers are done soon.

[hpcg] 22/2/2024 09:44

Many years ago now there was a private equity B series issue that traded 40% below the identically ranked original listing. Primarily it was just illiquid. I'm pretty sure that it was Pantheon PIP and PIPR, though it doesn't matter. I held that for about a year, and then sold out of boredom. Some time after, but not such a long time after that I didn't notice there was a significant corporate action that closed the gap entirely (see RNS below). My thesis was correct, that I would collect both the simple gain from the rising asset price, and also the big alpha upside from the discount closing. My strategy was incorrect though, I assumed the market would solve the inefficiency rapidly as the Pantheon NAV and share price were rising after a correction.
This is a somewhat similar case. It seems likely that after a correction in 2022 the Vietnamese stock market is in a new up-phase, with the next hurdle the late summer 2023 intermediate highs. If that is so then in the medium term VOF investors will capture both the beta and the alpha from the discount closing.


It was indeed Pantheon -

[martincc] 22/2/2024 09:39

Added a few, can buy 5k @441.925p, cheaper than yesterday yet nav up another 4p
NAV slowly rising, share price still dropping, 24.84% dtnav now.
Must be a seller here pinning the price down, or just unloved?

[aleman] 22/2/2024 07:38

588p is a 17-month high for NAV, I think.


VNH's monthly update suggests the economy got off to a good start in 2024.

[arja] 21/2/2024 16:28

you are probably wiser than me Donald and chart does show a bottom of 441 in the tramline pattern . I sold today when it hit 445 seller but can alwaya re-enter if no better opportuniry . I quite like BME short term chart but it has a very high debt/equity ratio !!

[donald pond] 21/2/2024 15:53

I've bought in. Chart shows why, right at bottom of trend and tends to keep moving once it bounces

[arja] 21/2/2024 14:37

thinking about selling today as only have a very modest loss . Probably will then pick up which will benefit holders :) . Wish I had more patience as no ovious opportunities in other stocks at the moment with US indices falling today

[arja] 21/2/2024 13:12

wonder how VOF will react if Vietnam indices have a really bad day - maybe VOF would rise ! :) .

[dickiehh] 20/2/2024 20:50

I agree with these observations Donald. However what seems especially odd to me I that VNH is at hardly any discount! But VOF which is a much bigger and more liquid fund and invests in bigger companies/assets is at nearly 25 percent!! The opposite of what we see across the rest of the IT market? And anomalous to previous big discounts for VNH. Rather odd, no?

[arja] 20/2/2024 16:15

XFVT has quite a nice looking chart and looks like it could get to 2300 resistance levl in coming weeks bur certainly not a good day or overnight trade unless lucky and vietnam index rockets next day. Let's see how it performs compared to VOF

[aleman] 20/2/2024 11:25

I have doubts about all this China doing badly news. (I remember all the China doing badly news after Q1/2008 GDP figures just before it roared ahead again.) GDP rose from 4.9% to 5.2% last time and recent months have seen record car sales and a very big rebound in tourism after Covid. They might actually be cutting rates again into the early signs of a decent recovery (that we're also seeing in some other Asian countries).

I agree that fund flows drive stockmarkets and often swamp news from individual companies. The good ones tend to only shine after the tide has stopped going out and the tide in the UK shows no sign of turning yet that I can see. It could well be that UK investors are overselling VOF simply because many of them are skint.

[hpcg] 20/2/2024 11:15

Agreed wholeheartedly Aleman. Predominantly it is simply fund flows in the London market, as evidenced across almost every corner of the market. There is nothing the company can do about this. It can't make middle aged people have money, it can't stop old people with assets dying. In general it can't make the world invest in EMs while China is decaying and the dollar is high. What it can do is buy back its stock at a significant discount adding value to shareholders every day.

[aleman] 20/2/2024 09:40

Dividend yield nearly 2.7%. This is going to be an income stock soon!

Whilst the discount is near a non-Covid record, it has actually been around this level 5 times before and quickly bounced back. There might be no need to overthink reasons why if it just repeats previous history, though I will not be dismissing suggestions offered if the discount does not close. Switching to an ETF at what could well be the bottom for the discount here does not appeal to me.

[arja] 20/2/2024 09:30

actually I have just found one - XFVT. Has a wide spread of 13p which is offputting and RSP quote is only a penny less than offer price on L2 ticket

[arja] 20/2/2024 09:25

is there an ETF covering vietnam listed in UK and free of stamp duty when buying Pyemckay? I can not find any .

[pyemckay] 20/2/2024 09:21

the trust then need to rectify this by announcing a tender offer for the shares. The performance has been so poor that I’m considering an ETF myself.

[arja] 20/2/2024 09:08

good observatiions Donald . Again today VOF is struggling even though Vietnam indices up a touch and in a lovely short term uprtrend . Still hoping it will up to about 458 in next week or so being the top of the tramline range :)

[donald pond] 20/2/2024 07:58

I think what is likely happening is wealth managers are selling VOF and buying ETFs. Hence the discount is wider here than at smaller entities because there is more slack for other buyers - the company itself and private investors - to take up.
Wealth managers and IFAs are selling because of cost disclosure rules which are pushing them away from investment trusts in general. There is a huge industry campaign against the stupidity of these rules and everyone knows they are misleading, but it makes an age to change regulation.
VOF is clearly at a stupid discount. But so is most of the PE sector and funds like PSH, CHRY etc. It seems that the only investment trusts at small discounts are small, niche ones that are mainly held by long term holders (like BOOK or RKW) and equity income trusts.

[arja] 20/2/2024 07:52

if so and seems likely, the NAV for VOF can not be relied upon as hatd to value such investments .

[dickiehh] 19/2/2024 21:20

Is VOF on such a wide discount (esp compared to much smaller VNH) because of its unlisted investments?

[arja] 19/2/2024 15:41

amazing that VNH almost trades at NAV !VOF picking up a touch from that 441 support level .

[hpcg] 19/2/2024 15:27

VOF is 9 times bigger than VNH on a NAV basis, 7 times on a market cap basis.