Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 20/11/2023 14:20

I make the dividend 5.638p per share.

[shaker45] 18/11/2023 01:43

That average masks a wide range with many around 30% discount to nav

[aleman] 16/11/2023 16:28

The average discount across all investment trust sectors stood at 16.9% at the end of October, the widest discount for a month-end since December 2008, when it reached 17.7%, according to data from Morningstar.

[aleman] 09/11/2023 07:44

NAV starting to look strong again given the ex-dividend last week. (568p after about 6p ex-dividend.)

[arja] 06/11/2023 09:06

I guess the stronger cable has knocked VOF and down today as viernam indices rise !

[arja] 03/11/2023 15:40

surprised it has come off so much today as Vietnam indices held up well - must be the friday blues but mistake not to take profit at close yesterday :) .

[arja] 02/11/2023 09:03

nice turnaround in Vietnam indices and up about 3.5% . VOF not strictly following but maybe the currency is weaker against pound !

[shaker45] 01/11/2023 10:57

Let's hope they get the huge real estate corruption problems fixed soon

[aleman] 01/11/2023 09:59

Vietnam Oct manufacturing PMI 49.6 from 49.7 but new orders rose again and inventories fell again, suggesting output might rise in the next few months. Employment stabilised after a couple of months of slight job shedding.

[aleman] 24/10/2023 07:58

Wow. So the current year P/E drops from 12.3 to 9.3 for 2024.

Our research team believes that the macroeconomic picture for Vietnam remains remarkably strong and resilient long-term. While earnings growth for 2023 has been trending lower, with consensus estimates currently at 7.8% growth for 2023, looking ahead the outlook for 2024 is robust, with the market expecting to deliver 32.1% earnings growth, one of the fastest growth rates in ASEAN, while still attractively priced at an estimated 12.3x forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2023.

[aleman] 23/10/2023 12:46

Dividend of 7.0 cents, ex-dividend 2nd Nov, paid 4th Dec. Exchange rate yet to be declared around 20th Nov.

[shaker45] 17/10/2023 17:46

25% discount not unusual. Rothschild's RIT is at that level and getting worse,for example

[aleman] 17/10/2023 17:23

VinaCapital's Outlook for Vietnam's Economy:

[shaker45] 17/10/2023 03:59

They bought back 50k on 13 October. Watch out for more.

[aleman] 16/10/2023 13:09

So this morning, the shares started at a discount of 25.4% to Friday's closing NAV of 586p. The market did close down today to be fair but the discount is just getting ridiculous. It potentially opens itself up to some kind of corporate action to make an instant profit.

[aleman] 13/10/2023 10:28

I believe NAV of 580p is the highest since September 2022?

[hpcg] 11/10/2023 16:41

arja - I would say the 15% discount it normally runs at is to take account of country risk. The additional discount is flows related (IMO) as money is sucked into the dollar and US investors withdraw from EMs. Note that to an extent all EMs suffer when the largest component, China, sells off. Vietnam is still an MSCI Frontier but many investors have soft classified it as Emerging.

[arja] 11/10/2023 16:17

thanks for interesting comments Aleman . I was about to buy after it weakened to 445 but was not quick enough as it jumped again :)

[aleman] 11/10/2023 12:39

The discount is towards the historically extreme end of this stock's range. News coming out of Vietnam recently seems pretty good so does not seem to justify it. Should China (property) news push it to such depths, or the small investor market in the UK? Maybe - but I think not. VOF has underperformed a little compared to VNH and VEIL in recent months and its discount seems possibly a little out of line. If there is a reason for it, I'd like to know what it is.

[arja] 11/10/2023 11:03

I have only followed VOF and VEIL recently but surely the BIG discount to NAV is because it is Vietnam which is not a emocracy and sovereign risk . Not sure what else it can be but , as a trader of this NO stamp duty stock, I will just assume the discount will not reduce much and hope to make a profit on that basis

[aleman] 10/10/2023 07:29

How long can this keep ignoring rising NAV? Will it ping eventually? It's 24% below Monday's reported NAV of 578p and the market has risen again since. The shares would have to rise around 13% to get to a historically typical discount of 15%. At least the prospective yield is up to 2.6%.

[hpcg] 09/10/2023 14:20

The reversal of some of the NAV reductions from a year ago are welcome. It won't change market sentiment towards EMs, especially from US investors, but it is nothing but positive for holders.

[aleman] 09/10/2023 13:57

Including today's market rise in Vietnam, the VOF discount should now be up to around 23% at 443p. A historically typical discount would have us around 485p.

[aleman] 04/10/2023 10:31

Today's slight rise in the shares just matches the market rise earlier so we still seem to be at an excessive discount to NAV of around 22%. The shares would have to rise about 9% to get back to a more typical historic discount but it probably won't happen for a while with western markets seeming to be in panic mode.