Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 19/1/2024 08:15

Here we go. Yesterday's NAV was up again, the stockmarket was up over 1% overnight, and Ho Chi Min townhouse prices just hit a record high. The economic recovery in Vienam seems to be gaining momentum and VOF could be in the sweet spot with its property exposure.



A breakout of that channel I posted yesterday looks more likely today.


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[riskvsreward] 18/1/2024 19:39

vnh used to be on a higher discount compared to both veil and vof. It has then offered several tender offer at close to NAV which have since led to its rerating to much lower discount. I first bought VNH because it was offering a bigger discount but sold out on its first tender offer and then when its share price went above its tender offer price. I think now vof is better value as vnh is too small and the fee is relatively more expensive to run, unless its fund manager outperform significantly in their stock selection.

Also to add when compare performance, one needs to account for the dividend payments by vof, but not by vnh and veil. This can add up on a longer time span, say 3 years,it can add up a difference of close to 10%.

[hpcg] 18/1/2024 19:24

31337 COD3R - potentially, but holding strength is not usually a losing strategy. There is quite a bit of overlap between the holdings of VEIL and VOF, but much less to for VNH. Nevertheless it is discount compression that has driven the recent out-performance of VNH, rather than portfolio performance (I have not done the exact calcs, so don't take my word for that).

[aleman] 18/1/2024 18:46

I'm mainly suggesting Vietnam is looking better poised than most economies, shares there are modestly valued by historical standards, and trust discounts tend to revert to the mean eventually. I'm not sure why VOF's discount has expanded but wonder if it's the higher property exposure since there was lots of bad property news last year but that seems to be abating thanks to rate cuts and some government interventions to try improve the situation. I don't think I've ever advised anyone to buy or sell anything.

I did consider putting VEIL in the comparison charts but it's quite similar to VOF and makes it look a bit cluttered. Anyone considering switching from VNH to VOF might equally consider switching to VEIL. Of course, VOF might be expected to underperform them both in capital perfomance because it pays out 1% dividend twice per year, but I'd still expect discounts to revert to the mean over a period of time but while not suggesting when. It could be a year, or less, or more. :-)

[31337 c0d3r] 18/1/2024 18:33

Would you suggest I sell my VNH holding and buy more VOF?

Are you sure the VNH price won't continue outperforming VOF?

[aleman] 18/1/2024 17:53

5, 3, 2, 1 years


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[aleman] 18/1/2024 17:34

I thought I'd run a little channel analysis on this one, as I occasionally do, despite being a buy and hold investor. It's never a prediction so much as an indicator of where you might expect some "action" - and that can be down as well as up. The arrows are not targets but have a different significance - the lower is where a historical average 15% discount on current NAV would be, and the higher is an arbitrary 10% discount would be, if it fell almost into line with VNH, but also similar to typical historic lows in its range, too. It had a brief spike under 5% at the start of 2021. You can put an imaginary arrow won that if you like. :-)


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The trouble at the moment seems to be investors not choosing a lower idcount as Vietnam is picking up but choosing a higher discount as the UK seems to be doing worse! Som eof the differential with VNH coul dbe the higher property exposure with VOF, but there are early signs that slightly lower interest rates are beginning to help property so that might not be justifiable any longer.

[hpcg] 18/1/2024 16:01

Aleman - A few years ago VNH used to be on a larger discount then was put on the bargain share portfolio of Simon Thompson of Investors' Chronicle. I imagine it has a more significant PI following than the other instruments, but that is a guess. He may also promote it in their additional paid for product called Alpha, but as I don't subscribe I couldn't tell you. The smart thing for VNH holders would be to arbitrage the discount IMO.

Chart wise higher lows are being printed, but that overhead resistance at approx 475 needs to break.

[aleman] 18/1/2024 12:17

VNH is above its level of two years ago and on a discount of 8%. Why have VEIL and VOF been left behind on discounts of 19% and 21%?


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[aleman] 18/1/2024 12:06

Economy to improve, Dong to rise in 2024, Stockmarket hits another 4-month high:

[aleman] 17/1/2024 13:36

Auto sales in Vietnam beat 2023 forecasts of around 400k after a bumper December. Forecasts for next year were around 430k before December's figures. It looks like the car market is picking up again.

[aleman] 17/1/2024 09:31

Discount hits 21% compared to recent years average of about 15%.

[aleman] 15/1/2024 11:25

Again, suggestions 2024 will be better for property:



Hoang Hai, director general of the ministry’s Housing and Real Estate Market Management Agency, said the market became more active in the second half, a possible sign of positive developments in 2024.

[aleman] 12/1/2024 14:42

Economic figures improving. HSBC expects growth to rise from 5.1% in 2023 to 6.0% in 2024. Inflation in 2024 is expected to come in about 1% under target - but then it already is under target.



Plenty of scope for more rate cuts there, which should hopefully see the property market recover strongly. I reckon VOF look primed to really motor this year provided there are no black swans.


And it looks like the discount might have now hit 20% again?

[shaker45] 05/1/2024 12:49

A better comparison than historic is with the current high discounts to nav across the market

[aleman] 05/1/2024 09:23

VOF shares look sluggish compared to NAV recently. 5-year average discount is about 15%. 12-month average discount is about 17%. With this morning's modest rise in Vietnamese shares, the discount looks to be about 19.5%.

[aleman] 04/1/2024 13:43

Vietnam's GDP was recovering while China was subdued. China is showing modest signs of improvement. Vietnam now has a major foreign and domestic investment boom under way, lower interest rates that might come down further, and some new trade deals, including the USA. It actually looks primed to do extremely well over then next few years, hence the stockmarket approaching its record high. (Up again this morning.)

[shaker45] 04/1/2024 12:55

No chance! Even prezza Xi talked down the economy at new year. Unheard of

[aleman] 04/1/2024 11:27

Will there be a Chinese tailwind here? China's services PMI rose to 52.9 in December from 51.5 in November. It's the third consecutive rise and new orders were highest for 7 months.

[aleman] 02/1/2024 10:25

Vietnam Manufacturing PMI rises from November's 47.3 to 48.9 in December.

[aleman] 07/12/2023 13:55

Vietnamese CPI fell from 3.59% in October to 3.45% in November. The target is 4.5% so that reinforces existing expectations of a cut in the interest rate from 4.5% to 4.0% in early 2024 (following cuts earlier this year from 6%).

[dpmcq] 06/12/2023 16:52

The reason behind the special resolution at the AGM -
The Company's second largest shareholder, representing approximately 23% of the votes cast at the AGM (11% of the total issued share capital), voted for Resolution 14, the discontinuation of the Company. The Chairman had met representatives of the shareholder prior to the AGM who indicated that they would support continuation of the Company if the Board introduced a Performance Conditional Tender Mechanism ("PCTM"). The Chairman presented the Board's arguments why a PCTM would not be in the Company's or the other shareholders' interests but the shareholder was not persuaded and has voted contrary to the Board's recommendation. In accordance with the AIC Code of Corporate Governance, the Board will now reflect further and will report back to all shareholders at the time of the publication of the interim results in March 2024.

[aleman] 06/12/2023 16:20

29% voted against the company continuing in its current form. Maybe they want to wind up and hopefully get 20% more value than the current share price offers?