Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[exotic] 11/1/2021 14:01

I chose this in March 2020 for the Covid rebound, for many reasons, but also their handling of the pandemic, still to-date only 35 Covid deaths in Vietnam.

Similar to GSS and FCIT, not only was it quick to move back above pre-pandemic levels, but continues on a steep trajectory making it one of my best performers and best outlook.

[arja] 11/1/2021 09:19

amt,
thanks for comments and I decided to edge in on friday but needs careful monitoring I guess as MIGHT be a pullback soon . As Vietnam has done much better than the UK in the battle against covid19 , that might have helped the vietnmaese share market although hard to do worse with the Tory clowns here in charge .

[dickbush] 07/1/2021 16:25

Vietnam revives economy, lures foreign investors and big funds - GulfToday

Local fund managers finding it easy to start up new funds, and local authorities closing the market early to stem the rise.

The market is still some 50 points below its all-time high while S. Korea and Taiwan are 25% above their previous highs. Hard to believe but the Vietnam market looks cheap relative to those two.

[dickbush] 07/1/2021 16:18

Vietnam revives economy, lures foreign investors and big funds - GulfToday

Local fund managers finding it easy to start up new funds, and local authorities closing the market early to stem the rise.

The market is still some 50 points below its all-time high while S. Korea and Taiwan are 25% above their previous highs. Hard to believe but the Vietnam market looks cheap relative to those two.

[amt] 07/1/2021 11:03

It's not going to go up like a Blockchain share like TRD but for me it's a steady longterm investment which I hope will grow faster than gdp growth in Vietnam of about 6 or 7% per annum

[johnwig] 07/1/2021 10:28

Both of the VietNam trusts that I hold now (this and VEIL) in some quantity have performed gratifyingly well since late March, almost doubling. On the anecdotal basis that nothing goes up in a straight line for ever we must expect some future zigzags. For instance, the full resumption of the tourist industry may well be complicated and fraught.

They've given us a great cushion to hang on for a good while yet, though. I like to hold on and be patient if it looks as good as this.

[amt] 07/1/2021 06:37

Arja I am very optimistic about Vietnam for many reasons listed in earlier posts.
I might be wrong but I don't think there has been a down day for 4 weeks.
Up again this morning. Only downside I can think of might be a strengthening pound post Brexit trade deal. As with any investment there are risks so its up to everyone to make their own decisions.

[arja] 06/1/2021 09:55

amt ,
just noticed this trust and it's lovely uptrending chart albeit it moves slowly . can you tell me how you view the Vietnamese index please as I wondered how it looks although must note the FX movement too ??thanks .

[lageraemia] 05/1/2021 09:20

The discount is narrowing though, even if it is still chunky

[amt] 05/1/2021 07:53

Another big increase in Nav and we have more large gains in Vietnam this morning.
Happy New Year everyone

[lageraemia] 29/12/2020 12:15

Sensible darts mate! Play the percentages....

[shaker44] 29/12/2020 12:10

Just crossed the 3 bagger line, so sold one third and now in for nothing. Paper profit of £66k so once my VOF crossed £100k it was a bit overweight for my desired risk profile.
Not lack of faith in its future direction though, just using a big up day to rebalance

[amt] 24/12/2020 08:18

I think there will be a massive infrastructure projects building on what is already being done to protect areas at risk. Flooding is common in Vietnam and they are experienced in dealing with it.
It may never happen but its an opportunity to restructure what is a very poor country and build in the future in areas which are safe protecting the poorer populations most at risk.
Global warming is potentially a huge problem for all of us in several different ways so we need to keep driving to a carbon neutral world.

[boystown] 24/12/2020 08:01

I noticed yesterday in the last of this year's Reith Lectures by Mark Carney -

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p090rjnh/the-reith-lectures-2020-mark-carney-how-we-get-what-we-value-lecture-4-from-climate-crisis-to-real-prosperity -

Sir David King, from 42 mins:15, see for his background)

- is pessimistic about climate change saying we're already past the point of no return in ice cap melt and that "countries like Vietnam" will be effectively unable to maintain a population by as soon as 2050 due to the frequency of flooding.

Any (rational...) thoughts?

[amt] 24/12/2020 07:34

Happy Christmas to you all. Let's hope its a prosperous New Year.

[shaker44] 24/12/2020 02:37

Filtered but for a guy who said goodbye I'm out, more comebacks than Frank Sinatra.
MERRY CHRISTMAS & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR ANDY

[andyj] 24/12/2020 02:06

Indeed, time will tell. From a personal and business viewpoint, I hope you are right and that a large scale outbreak can be avoided AND a relatively seamless recovery of tourism obtained. But I remain sceptical and at this price, my opinion is that the above scenario is priced in. Anyway it is Christmas, and here we have a cloudless sky, a mild 27c and the streets are full of pretty women in red dresses. Good luck to you and Happy Christmas from Saigon!

[amt] 23/12/2020 07:44

Time will tell. I am certainly not selling and might buy more.
See your post 1118 of 30th October when you were more than sceptical.
The share price is up 24% since then.

[andyj] 23/12/2020 07:02

Another 40%? LOL in Cloud Cuckoo Land anything is possible!

[amt] 23/12/2020 06:11

Hoa Phat Group up over 3% today at 5.00 am following over 2% gain yesterday. This follows a flat period so momentum gathering there which won't do any harm to VOF.
Plus the private side of the portfolio will help drive things forward when revaluations occur or better still IPOs take place.

[amt] 23/12/2020 05:45

Interesting that much of the good run in the market is being driven by local investment so it will be interesting to see what happens when International investment starts pouring in as the market starts moving onto the large global funds radar.
I am reckoning on a 40% gain in the broader market next year based on 20% increase in earnings plus general increase to align with global markets in general. That assumes that the Pandemic doesn't get much worse.
After that the ten year outlook is very bright for all the reasons outlined in an earlier post of mine. Its amazing to think that Gdp per head of population is 1/5 of China and 1/15 of S Korea. So enormous growth potential.
South Korean index up ten fold in the last twenty years. It would have been great just to have invested there, then I wouldn't have needed to bother with all the research.

[andyj] 23/12/2020 04:15

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20201026/vietnam-janoct-fdi-inflows-drop-25-y-y-to-158-bln-govt/57453.htmlFDI pledges down 20%. Nothing to worry about lol.

[shaker44] 23/12/2020 01:05

Yes amt. Almost a 3 bagger for me now and it will cross that line before this year is out I expect. Don't see any reasons yet to run for the hills.

[andyj] 22/12/2020 23:56

Unemployment stable? Even the authorities have stated the opposite. Anyway, as I said people believe every word they read in newspapers.

[amt] 22/12/2020 17:42

Well if that last post is not an indication not to be invested ie sell or do not invest, I don't know what is.
Unemployment is stable at 2.5% and the crime rate is below that of France.
Bad debts have risen of course as they have globally but as nothing compared to most countries.
Visitors will have to be vaccinated before tourism can commence and that will happen over the next 6 months.
Vietnam is in great shape to thrive in the years ahead.
The tariff threat by the way is old news from 2019. Trump has no justification for such action and Biden is highly unlikely to go down that route.