Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 09/5/2021 22:39

Yes its fair enough to listen to both sides but in this case he has missed out on a huge rise in the Share price and it gets irritating when somebody who lives in a country cant find anything positive to say.

[ceaserxzy] 09/5/2021 18:41

While It is always a good idea to hear all information and opinions, it is also important to be not dogged in one's own opinion and even insists on one's opinion being the only correct one, even though it has been proven wrong by the reality.

Everyone can observe the actual case numbers in Vietnam,however, how to interpret it is another matter.

Like others have pointed out India market hardly blinked despite its disastrous covid situation while Chinese market did quite badly despite its apparent full control of covid and normalization of its economic activities.

The other point to bear in mind is that Vietnam is a long term investment thesis, so any short term setback can be taken as good top-up opportunity and therefore not to be too worried about.

[kenmitch] 09/5/2021 17:29

Though earlier agreeing with andyj he didn’t take up my suggestion to raise his earlier doubts with the VOF Managers and then post about it either to reassure or otherwise.

Also a 30% increase from a low base is not always a big increase. An increase from 1 to 2 is a 100% increase.


Also Andyj seems to be ignoring how even the Indian stock market is holding up and other markets are soaring as they price in the strong recovery now being experienced in many Countries. Why should Vietnam be the outlier and do the opposite?

Perhaps better to take note of the Find Managers than take any poster too seriously. If the Fund Managers get concerned about anything then is the time to take note. Also just because someone lives in Vietnam does not make them an expert on investing in Vietnam. There are plenty of hopeless investors living in the UK investing in the UK.

[shaker44] 09/5/2021 16:48

Filter button works well and then this board makes more sense

[donald pond] 09/5/2021 16:24

I think he said he won't post again until share price is at £3. Let's see if he sticks to his word

[amt] 09/5/2021 16:05

The only thing that is predictable is that AndyJ will pop up spouting doom and gloom. Maybe it is a difficult situation but no need for histrionics.
Lets hope they deal with it.
No idea what impact on stock market will be. History tells us its been surprisingly positive but thats not important.

[andyj] 09/5/2021 15:14

No more links from me, you can DYOR.Locally transmitted cases up by 30% today. You better hope this outbreak can be contained or your road bump will be a rather large sinkhole. The MOH do not describe something as 'very alarming' without good reason, but most of you are too arrogant and naive to heed that. I have given you enough warnings that this was likely and crucially, not priced in. To remind you, we have less than 1% vaccinated and countless tightly packed communities. What was it? 'A FTSE tracker is many times the risk of investing here'. LOL, see you at £3.

[andyj] 07/5/2021 15:40

Good news for numpties! Never mind the MOH description as 'very alarming', it is going up forever! Just a road bump...LOLhttps://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-records-another-40-domestic-covid-19-cases-4274536.html?fbclid=IwAR1kneS2ZW4BmelyUST2NxCYMCGr3LWTBUWjm2O7xaxRtoEim44VrnIAaY4

[andyj] 07/5/2021 13:51

Haha what a numpty! You just do not understand FACTS do you? It is a link to government media updating the latest figures on the virus. Not opinion you understand?

[31337 c0d3r] 07/5/2021 11:33

It never is good news, is it?

Odd how the share price continues defying all your bad news.

[andyj] 06/5/2021 15:26

Not good news. https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210506/vietnam-reports-daily-spike-of-64-local-coronavirus-infections/60770.html?fbclid=IwAR0sJ0-JMCGiodg2n2RCl_ZyGZfny-l7Wv0eAkdepRgUxLT0AHL3mQbwSV0

[hpcg] 05/5/2021 08:51

China / Taiwan doesn't need to get hot for markets to sell off, but EMs will sell off well before main markets get a sniff. One of the underpinnings for Vietnam is China flight so some tension is required, but nothing close to the hardware coming out.

[hydrogen economy] 05/5/2021 08:25

Tensions in the East Sea have been stoked in the last few days.

With effect from 1st May (International Socialist Workers Day), Chinese coastguard declared it will guarantee the enforcement of the fishing ban on the sea area covering part of the Gulf of Tonkin and Việt Nam’s Hoàng Sa (Paracel) archipelago. which naturally Vietnam rejects.

A similar ban was claimed by China on waters claimed by the Philippines which follows Chinese vessels collecting near Scarborough Shoal.


hxxps://vietnamnews.vn/politics-laws/937335/viet-nam-resolutely-rejects-chinas-unilateral-fishing-ban-vice-spokesperson.html

[andyj] 05/5/2021 01:02

I do not see military action in Taiwan as a significant problem. It is far enough away from here and Vietnam would have no involvement. A much bigger threat, would be a direct clash with China over the disputed Spratly and Paracel islands. However, despite continuing skirmishes there is no will on either side to increase tensions.You are right to state that political instability would absolutely derail the country from economic growth, but you are wrong to disassociate this possibility from COVID, as the two are absolutely linked. It is precisely that threat that underpins the swift response of the authorities to control the virus.

[shaker44] 05/5/2021 00:12

That's a point of view. (you mean bout not bought)

[hpcg] 04/5/2021 19:09

shaker44 - unless they bought back in the biggest mistake most people made was not reinvesting soon after. Much as I don't especially have time for buy and hold with closed eyes those inactive investors have done just fine in the last year. Much more important was to be in the right markets. With even Yellen talking up rate rises it is those that are a much bigger risk, and for VOF a resurgent dollar and or risk off sentiment. Over the same time period to come some developing countries may get a bought of the Covids but it won't be visible on a 10 year chart. It is primarily political instability that would see me run to the hills, but also any vague stirrings of China using military force against Taiwan.

[andyj] 04/5/2021 14:32

While moron and alien commence battle....if you're going to be quarantined....https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210504/182-quarantined-on-board-luxury-cruise-ship-in-vietnam-s-ha-long-bay-over-covid19-fear/60720.html?fbclid=IwAR3JSzVZ4NTBLHHCUyZpBO2YMvOsfwt7DLLQLKQTUfKD3XmURemBb9t1a-Y

[shaker44] 04/5/2021 13:37

Each to their own but anyone who thinks COVID Is inconsequential to markets must be from another planet. I have made a lot of money realigning my portfolio since March 20 and I continue to see markets and sectors react to COVID news. Anyone who doesn’t is missing out

[andyj] 04/5/2021 10:56

The naivety on this thread is comical, but entirely expected.

[hpcg] 04/5/2021 09:29

Covid is now the very definition of noise from a macro perspective and for all but a handful of specific sectors. Even for India now it is irrelevant to long duration assets. There is literally over 12 months of market data to demonstrate this; anyone trading markets / funds on Covid news is a moron IMO.

[amt] 04/5/2021 08:03

Yes its extrordinary how the Indian stock market has held up.
Vietnam needs more vaccines but I expect after US and Europe is mostly vaccinated by end of July there will be plenty of spare vaccine.

[donald pond] 04/5/2021 07:32

The analysis by some people here is simplistic beyond belief. Since when has the market mirrored Covid rates? Listen to the market, don't talk to it.

[shaker44] 03/5/2021 08:51

Vietnam's very strong response to covid is very supportive of economic performance. Of course it will have outbreaks to manage as it has long porous natural land borders which are easy to infiltrate. And its neighbours take a less robust approach to covid (except China). The way VN govt respond to these expected outbreaks is very impressive

[dickbush] 03/5/2021 08:04

My comment and hydrogen's were just pointing out the facts. While we will be breaking out the champagne well before we got down to Vietnam's infection numbers, Vietnam seems intent on severe measures to get domestic numbers down to zero and keep them there. Smart, IMO, but not helpful to VOF's share price in the short term. Long run, though, it is as shaker says, a bump in the road.