Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 01/5/2021 06:45

Hydrogen posted a factual update, together with current concerns, of the evolving situation. No one yet can predict the scale of this outbreak, but to dismiss it already as a 'road bump' exposes your economic naivety of this country.

[shaker44] 30/4/2021 11:35

A road bump in Vietnam's economic journey imo

[hydrogen economy] 30/4/2021 10:54

The headline numbers are not so significant as most are imported cases in quarantine, but there are big concerns about the community cases which are first in over a month, originating from someone who was released from quarantine after 14 days and 3 negative tests, clearly some issue with the procedure. HCMC and Hanoi have closed bars/karaoke etc. It's unfortunate timing with a long weekend holiday there will be a lot of travel.

There was already concern due to the outbreak in Cambodia, new record of 880 cases yesterday, the number of illegal border crossings makes this a big risk with police having caught 13200 people making illegal crossings at all borders in first 3 months of 2021, that's up from 30k in all of 2020.

Vaccinations now at 425k, 45k per day after very slow start but still just scratching the surface. Initial delivery of ~1m only had 2 months of remaining shelf life (must have been sitting in storage for 4 months before shipping to VN).


hxxps://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210429/vietnam-stopped-over-13200-people-from-entering-exiting-vietnam-illegally-in-januarymarch/60634.html

hxxps://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210416/astrazeneca-vaccine-shots-covax-provided-for-vietnam-to-expire-in-less-than-2-months/60396.html

[shaker44] 30/4/2021 10:43

?? Being sarcastic right??

[dickbush] 30/4/2021 09:38

I'm looking at a story that the total number is 48. That's the highest number since early February. I'm surprised VOF is holding up.

[andyj] 29/4/2021 16:43

Market here closed tomorrow for Reunification Day and Monday. Yet after the market closed, what could be worrying news emergedhttps://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-confirms-six-covid-19-community-transmissions-4270668.html

[hydrogen economy] 16/4/2021 13:53

Actually, there were no new cases this morning, the 2 An Giang cases were reported yesterday, along with 19 other imported cases, Five in Bến Tre, five in HCM City, one in Thái Nguyên, seven in Đà Nẵng and one in Bắc Ninh. All were quarantined on arrival.

hxxps://vietnamnews.vn/society/926506/no-new-cases-of-covid-19-on-friday-morning.html

hxxps://vietnamnews.vn/society/926337/21-new-imported-cases-reported-on-thursday-evening.html

Some of these were like An Giang illegal immigration increasing the risk of spread along with possibility of illegals getting in undetected. Cambodia has a growing problem with 200-500 cases per day in the last few days, that's the main threat, Vietnam has increased manpower controlling the border.

Strangely, despite receiving a total of around 1 million vaccine doses for over 6 weeks, Vietnam is still only giving about 1000 per day ~62000 total. Cambodia are giving 10000 per day with only 1/5th of the population, still not fast enough but presumably, their outbreak woke them up. Hopefully Vietnam doesn't wait for a new outbreak to prompt a ramp-up. They will also need to source a lot more vaccines.

They are doing Phase 2 testing the home developed vaccines, the Deputy Prime-Minister Vũ was one of the subjects for the NanoCovax vaccine, no doubt to show confidence. The trial is limited to under 50's so I guess there weren't too many other candidates in the senior levels of Government.

[andyj] 16/4/2021 10:26

Beware of those posting baseless claims and fake news. The fact is...https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210416/married-couple-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-illegally-entering-vietnam-from-cambodia/60392.html?fbclid=IwAR1sBg7qtvaKRLxoWhB37QExtUWNUyAJtdF-Xj7DFEms9R0-2oCLHGVAVhQ

[amt] 16/4/2021 07:01

A new high yesterday
The boom in the US is likely to be very good for Vietnam and increase GDP growth by a further one percentage point.
No new infections at all this morning.

[andyj] 14/4/2021 11:09

Read post 1390# for my thoughts.

[amt] 14/4/2021 06:45

OK then Andy. Are you positive or negative on the future of VOF. In a year from now do you think it will be higher than 4.50 or lower?

[andyj] 13/4/2021 11:24

Yes and clearly you have not tried investing in it....

[andyj] 13/4/2021 11:23

Actually if you care to read I have given a reasoned explanation of the risks. Your claim of being 'very negative' suggests you either do not understand that, or are unable to form a coherent response. Except of course for your claim that the rise is 'correct'. Based on....?

[hpcg] 13/4/2021 10:34

There already is a Vietnam ETF, Van Eck's VNM, It has a $500m market cap. Van Eck are best known for SMH but they cover a wide range of more obscure assets including single country EM and FM ETFs, such as for Israel, Egypt, Indonesia. With the foreign holding limitation it would be difficult to start another one until the market was much larger and broader.

[amt] 13/4/2021 04:25

andyj has been very negative on Vietnam Market for sometime. That turned out to be a mistake given the continued strong rises which in my opinion are fully justified.
I find his latest argument about reclassification to emerging market status as a negative totally bizarre.
I remain convinced of the investment case for VOF and indeed Veil.

[hpcg] 12/4/2021 11:14

Excellent monthly report for March. Liked: "The government’s target of 6.5% annual GDP growth seems achievable and our Chief Economist discusses in more detail below the resilience of this growth, with consensus estimates for the market to deliver 24% earnings growth on average for 2021, while we expect holdings in our portfolio to deliver 36% earnings growth on average."

A FTSE100 tracker is many times the risk of a diversified Vietnamese portfolio, especially one with fingers in the private market.

[andyj] 10/4/2021 10:50

Dilute, as in offer those wanting to invest here more options than the three options, VOF, VEIL and VNH currently available.

[donald pond] 10/4/2021 10:26

I'm not sure this makes any sense: Some are invested in the hope of Vietnam achieving emerging market status. Yet they forget that will dilute investment here by opening up ETFs and rival funds investing in companies that really do have a bright future. If there are more ways to invest in Vietnam it won't "dilute investment here" as this is a closed ended vehicle. If there are ETFs etc launched that will increase demand for Vietnam stocks. And ETFs are passive generally so will invest in all stocks, not just those with a bright future.

[kenmitch] 10/4/2021 09:46

andyj

I forgot to remind that the fact that you don’t currently hold VOF does not mean you can't talk to them. You can point out that you’ve held in the past and want to question before considering whether to again.

Talk about pots and kettles with shaker44! He can’t possibly know about my investment success or otherwise, nor whether after 40 years investing I’m naive or not. Aren’t there some clowns around on some of the ADVFN bulletin boards.

[shaker44] 10/4/2021 03:39

Kenmitch. Another idiot filtered. Very naive

[andyj] 09/4/2021 15:24

Hi kenmitch, I have previously considered calling in on them as their office, in the Sunwah Tower, is very close to me, but I am not currently invested. I have always said a long term investment in the country is a good option at the right time, but VOF is benefiting from being one of very few choices for foreign investment here. I would invest unwaveringly in an ETF, although perhaps not at the moment.I respect your opinion and wish you luck with your investment here.

[shaker44] 09/4/2021 13:23

People who only ever post pessimistic stuff, even when overtaken by positive outcomes, are not worth my time. Hence Andy is filtered long since.
If you see value then I am happy for you.
Living in UK doesn't make anyone a ftse expert does it? Same vietnam.