Took my meagre profit and moved on
Some bad reviews on Trustpilot |
Thanks Sphere. My money is on VIC. |
Eigthwonder,
Naked Trader is sharp. He knows how to move around the market and generate returns. I know people will disagree with that and so on, but I can see how he moves and what he looks for....he performs well.....even if there are some miraculous last minute escapes from losses! Ha
I just expected more of a following for him after all these years. There used to be such big buying after he bought on lots of shares and the prices used to move sharp. It was a recurring theme. Things are so different now, but we have all experienced year after year of gloom of late too.
VelocyTongo,
One hour, 20 minutes and 9 seconds:
Stellar Asset Management have been given the tour - inside information....the legal variety
Also worth a watch.....17 minutes 30 seconds for about 45 seconds.
Hill - funny guy ha
If SE had sipped that beverage a few seconds earlier, he might have spat it out |
Sorry where and when did Mark Radcliffe say he wanted to put TPT out of . He needs Topps to help him move the markets online.
I agree that falling interest rates should help as well as the structural tailwinds from the general movement of everything online. Also there should be some substantial benefits as the new dc comes online. |
Interesting take on The Naked Trader. I too have always viewed him as just too pleased with himself but I listened to an interview with him on a podcast (hosted by stockbroker Zeus, as referenced by NT in latest update) and he comes across on that rather less puffed up than I expected. Perhaps he feels his writing style has to be a bit more “sales-y”;. |
 Macro from BoE:
-Inflation worse than expected
-Growth worse than expected
-Gradual and careful approach to rate cuts
-Sounding less dovish on the path of rate cuts
All in all, unconvincing and we're a flat lining economy at best.
So does that mean the likes of VIC can keep performing this year?
I can't tell if VIC and others are going to warn this year or manage to muddle through in this environment. It sounds like we might be lucky to get a flat economy too, so what happens if it gets worse?
Outside of quick trade attempts in windows between updates, when a company gets close to their scheduled update, I am waiting on the updates to make sure I am not buying into a warning.
So a few nuggets on the macro there.
How about the micro?
Some notable comments from Stephen English at Stellar Asset Management who calls this the top pick this year:
- VIC one of few who managed volume growth last year
- Could be seen as less cyclical due to a natural hedge within the business. When people trade down to their own brand products, sales fall, but the gross margin of own brand is 55% versus third party brands at 35% so this compensates
- Unfair competitive advantage, due to gross margin being 10 percentage points higher than peers, which allows the ability to spend 30% of revenue (£90m) on advertising
- 36,000 products across 150 brands
- Targeting more valuable trade customers
- New distribution centre is a whopping 540,000 square feet which could have 10 football pitches in it! Driving continued efficiencies from this.
- Could do £600m sales on the back of the above, targeting adjacent categories of flooring, heating etc....oh....AND TILES....WITH CEO SAYING HE WANTS TO PUT TOPPS TILES OUT OF BUSINESS SO WATCH THIS SPACE HA
-EBITDA margins of 15% results in possible £90m target
- Buying Victoria Plum means full benefit of advertising expenditure flows through now
- European expansion in time
Technicals and order book wise:
There have been buyers in size on the bid at 105p, mopping up during the day and some chunky orders in the auction too. Unusual to see as you don't get too many companies with this form of resilience in the smaller caps market.
The above story clearly explains why it is holding so well with buyers in size trying to exhaust the relentless sellers. I don't know if it can hold in light of the macro so it is quite an interesting ding-dong to watch at 105p right now.
My trade has done nothing so I have come out of it, but still watching in to see who wins this battle. It could break sharply either way depending who wins the battle. That is the way VIC moves.
Ultimately, looks worth keeping an eye on to see how they cope with the challenging macro and whether they can execute on the story.....AND if they can put TPT out of business!
Bold stuff.
Let's see.
All imo
DYOR |
Alright Burns, I see you...
You have clocked the buyers in size here too, so those big mop ups the other day (when ADVFN was broken and data couldn't be trusted) were real. Someone has come in for big blocks at 102.5p and now they are mopping up at 105p.
The book is thin on the offer right now with only two orders showing 4760 in total at 106p. Can't get a quote to buy even 5k right now. The way the orders are put on the book here makes it harder to read, but right now...it looks thin.
The Naked One has spotted these buyers and is trying to ride that higher.
Can't have him being a smug git if it pops from here so I have had a little go here as well.
This one is on you Burns. It better go higher! Ha
Poor humour aside, this is attempt number 2 and the final one....only because of Burns.
If it goes stale, it is an exit.
All imo
DYOR |
Burns gave this a plug yesterday.
Burns as in the Naked Trader:
"I got some Victorian Plumbing which doesn’t sound that exciting but actually…
It’s a rather decent online supply business and it’s been using its cash on acquisitions, tidying up loose ends and a way bigger warehouse.
Its plan is to continue to expand and it looks like a nice isa tuckaway.
I bought on some weakness, the initial plan is a return to around the 120p level it got to recently"
Long gone have those days where you would have tips on Wednesday and Friday. I think those were the two days a week (can't recall if the update days were different before) but long have those days gone where prices would move sharp on the back of a Burns tip.
Used to be so easy to piggyback on those.
Different time now.
Very little buying comes through and little opportunity to piggyback.
I think it partly goes to show how tough markets are to navigate from year to year or there would be hundreds of buys streaming in here and other tips.
No movement here.
Market is happy to exchange around that 105p mark.
All imo
DYOR |
The market must be sure about the economic situation to be coming in and buying like this Mr5k.
Trading blind here - ADVFN is knackered. Can't see the order book. It has partially come back on...
Just seen some big buying coming in here. Volume has leapt to nearly 2.5m
I think there has been a buyer in size at 101p and now 102p
I think that is the order book showing fully...
On this occasion...absolutely definitely don't rely on this ha
All im(ADVFN impaired)o
DYOR |
VIC has structural tailwinds, improved efficiencies from the new warehouse, and the moves into adjacent categories like tiles. It was good to see why they shut down Vic Plum today. Initially, I could not understand it but it does get a competitor out of the way and, more importantly, clears the way for better branding. I suspect that Plum was free-riding VIC's massive ad spend. I'd not be surprised to see them drop Plumbing from the name altogether in the coming years if the tiles and decor business develops and they become an all-around DIY and trade destination.
And btw, you get the chance to co-invest with a seriously hungry and ambitious CEO, who owns most of the shares and is a proper long-term manager and investor. |
Okay good, US inflation print just hits. Both UK and US prints not causing any scary moves with yields now falling. Bond yields appear to be calming down overall with big players like bond king Rick Rieder calling a top around 5%.
So some form of stabilisation is welcome now without having to worry about those scary pops higher that made you wonder whether yields could go screaming through 5% and cause bigger plunges here. Just need the stability to continue in the near term.
VIC had a little plunge as well as a sign of what could have come, further to big moves in the likes of TW. and COST. ECEL had a plunge too along with the likes of INPP. They still aren't recovering, but I suspect there would have been bigger plunges had the bond markets not calmed down.
The signs were all there.
The US is having a little relief bounce now.
I suspect we're back to worrying about the flatlining/contractionary environment with rates higher for longer here. So still gloom to deal with, just relief it isn't worse.
So with the big plunge crisis moves seemingly avoided, the market can get back to focusing on individual shares and who is going to perform and who isn't this year.
VIC trading in line, but mentioning soft months.
I suspect that will be an ongoing theme now. The recovery was supposed to happen this year, but it might now be pushed into next year.
All imo
DYOR |
VIC can't deal with B2C in the way they think they would like to. Their policy of leaving a returns service to retail customers is telling. The reliance on trade customers is dangerous as their customers will move in droves to cheaper/friendlier platforms. Their price is over-stated given inevitable dropping margins in B2T. |
lol
I sold some VCP and had to double check the VIC position was still there ha
They're both right next to each other on monitor list and on the share dealing positions.
It is nice to catch some fireworks though, even if that VCP type of firework comes with a scary fuse. I'm just banking along the way - too much risk to be comfortable. If it eventually goes wrong, the rampers disappear without a care in the world causing massive losses for some. It is good when people point out the risks. People can bank along the way for a potentially free carry now.
Fun fact:
Half of the $46 trillion S&P500 market cap was represented by 10 US shares today.
So back to VIC. What a bizarre day here. When I posted, just under 5k shares had been traded, and now the final count is in at a whopping 4m! They must have been keen to get back to the trading desks today.
It doesn't get better than that in terms of an efforts by the buyers to clear the sellers. Got big blocks picked up at 97p and then big buying at full ask of 98p. There was one persistent order on the offer at 98p which was proving stubborn. It was only a small order but big blocks of buys were only causing small AT trades, so it just showed that it was a monster sell order.
So definitely worth a go for a trade, but there could be a problem here now. With this much buying, the price should have cleared 98p and £1. This is anomalous buying for VIC. Sometimes the market can see that the sellers are too big and the price can reverse if the sellers aren't cleared.
Find out tomorrow if the stubborn seller can be cleared. Probably take a little loss if not.
Overall though, I guess days like today make this lacklustre market somewhat interesting.
All imo
DYOR |
Yes its a nice kind of confusing tho :) |
Just to add to the fun Volsung, the two Victoria's are now similar prices
I'm getting confused too ha |
This is all rather peculiar. It has gone from absolutely nothing exchanged to someone coming in to pick up big blocks at 97p:
934k @97p
720k @97p
Volume is ballooning to 2.48m without delayed prints - highest in months.
So does that mean sellers (who were airing on the cautionary side and took the price down from 120p) are being cleared here to allow a lurch higher into the results?
Almost forced into having a go now with someone bullish enough to come in to buy like this before the update - wasn't expecting this!
Picked up a tentative few to see if this clear out does allow a break over 98p and £1 for a possible pop higher to lob into before the results.
Tricky one to read so a stop at under 95p.
Still have the head in the VCP book. A nice ding-dong going on at 90p. It looks like a big buy order in the market clearing out all sellers from 88-89p (a mimic of Friday 10p lower). If the Bulls take control of 90p on the bid through the afternoon, it is going to lurch higher into the close for more momentum tomorrow.
All imo
DYOR |
Interesting points sphere.
I did buy some VCP on Friday as well so quite pleased with the pop up today.
Will keep your points in mind though re banking profits |
Perhaps a lucky mistake VT |
A much better company !! No debt no structural decline of its core product |
Bought some of these by mistake
Thought I was buying VCP
Oh well |
On the latest episode of the Desert Island Investor we are joined by my good friend John Walter.
With each castaway I ask them within our conversation to bring one of their holdings along for us to discuss and with John it was Victorian Plumbing - |
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