Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[supernumerary] 30/6/2019 11:16

ernest - I assume that's the full text of Winni's article? If so, I think he's unduly pessimistic about the order value.

The people who supplied the graphene used by the authors of the recent paper on graphene-enhanced concrete (see my post ) are The researchers checked the material they received and were happy with it, so I assume the quality is adequate.

They supply, for instance, non-functionalized graphene nano-platelets at a price of $500/Kg - try it on their site: - you can order up to 2Kg online. It's much the same if functionalized, and drops significantly with volume; they say:

'Graphene Nanoplatelets Price
Graphene Nanoplatelets price is typically based on quality and volume. Industrial grade GNPs are cheaper, have a larger number of layers, more defects in the structure, a lower specific surface area and range from $50- $75 per kg for commercial volumes (tonnage) and $15 for small quantities. Research grade GNPs price range is from $65-$90 per kg for commercial volumes and $35-$40 per gram for small quantities. The prices decline as volume increases.'
and
'Commercial volumes (>100 tons/year) are available.'

So an upper limit of $6K for VRS's 12Kg seems about right, but in addition it's bound in a polymer matrix. At a loading of say 2%, which seems a reasonable upper bound, that's 600Kg of an unspecified polymer. Without knowing what it is, it's impossible to put an accurate price on it, so going with say $10/Kg, about the price for standard 3D printing polymers, that's another $6K.

Total material price around £12K, plus a 50% margin of error, plus some service/preparation/packaging costs - $10K? - gives $28K total, around £22K, which I think is a pretty generous estimate. But, as ever, if anyone can supply more definitive information on any element of this calculation, I'd be very pleased to read it. Clearly, such a value is insufficient to warrant an RNS on its own, barely enough for an RNS Reach, and presumably the Nomad was persuaded to allow it on the basis of its strategic significance - new customer, key industry segment, more orders will follow etc. Just like the 'McLaren' watch :¬)

The main take-home messages from this are, I think, firstly that graphene has already become a commodity product. There are multiple suppliers, there will be more, and price is dropping just as quality is improving, so there will always be margin pressure for supply of the commodity without a lot of added value.

And secondly, that when Ricketts says VRS is continually servicing orders for graphene, their individual value is more or less negligible, as is, one suspects, their collective value. Hopefully the results will reveal more...

[grabster] 30/6/2019 10:19

Totally (totally) off topic (just cos it's Glastonbury weekend)



I don't recognize the mystery couple - but I was there ;-)
My 1958 'ragtop jellymould' (Morris Minor convertible) was on site and appears in some 1970 and 1971 Brian Walker images, as do I.

[cashorcard] 30/6/2019 09:53

Nico115-regarding your post about TW article, why don’t you just ask him yourself? After all you all mix in the same shorting, fake news circles and are in constant contact with like minded people!!

[woodpeckers] 30/6/2019 09:41

Great posts this weekend from true researchers and long term investors.

Taffy, many thanks for that link you posted yesterday. Just in case others missed it here's is a section of the article.

"NovoCarbon collaborates to also supply graphene

NovoCarbon’s latest collaboration agreement with Versarien Graphene will see them developing a number of applications for a variety of industries that will enable a robust graphene processing supply chain in the USA. Versarien Graphene now has relationships with over 25 companies in North America, encompassing sectors as diverse as automotive, aerospace, consumer goods, oil and gas, sports equipment and specialty plastics.

Patrick Abbott, VP of North American Operations at Versarien Graphene USA added: “We look forward to evaluating the synergies between our two companies and the opportunity to offer a solid impact presence into the North American marketplace.”

NovoCarbon CEO Paul Ferguson said: “NovoCarbon’s mission is to enhance the ability of companies such as Versarien to serve their customers and markets with consistent, high quality materials.”

The EV boom and rise of the anode battery megafactories will cause a surge in demand for battery grade graphite especially post 2020. As there is no significant graphite production in North America, NovoCarbon is positioning itself to become a key supplier of battery grade graphite.

China historically has accounted for 70% of graphite production hence it is now vitally important for the US and others to secure their EV metals supply chain. NovoCarbon is doing just that.

NovoCarbon has offices based in Canada and the USA.

[wuzy] 30/6/2019 08:43

P.s thanks for your thoughts and comments superg much appreciated.

[wuzy] 30/6/2019 08:42

Yes rogerbridge you either get it or not, at least we get it and many long term holders. Cheers

[superg1] 30/6/2019 08:36

If it’s $100-$400 per gram, the house the car and the golf clubs are being sold to pile in while I wait for many of potential multi-tonne orders in play to be confirmed. Then it’s party time wherever I like, when I like.

In other words the 12kg news is material in the step change from testing to the next stage, potentially pre eventual tonnage orders.

Yes I do want to know about such changes, especially when I had no idea we were already in that sector with graphene.

[rogerbridge] 30/6/2019 08:10

SG, you either get it or you do not. The problem with some so called tipsters or analysts, they have not the time to really know and understand the company and its strategy.
The 4th industrial revolution is upon us.

There are going to be huge winners and unfortunately some blue chip companies who will go out of business or absorbed by another.

With regard to the USA, as I understand it, Pat rick was focusing on opportunities where a client needs an urgent fix, as the contract announced. Then medium and long term collaborations.
I believe he may have been working in more than one urgent fix, so hopefully we may hear something else in the weeks ahead.

WithUSA ramping up, China, Korea and Japan not far behind, I am having a very enjoyable weekend. Well done all intelligent holders who have done their own research.

[1teepee] 30/6/2019 08:05

Don't matter. What matters is quantity and margins. Why ru trying to devalue the rns?

[superg1] 30/6/2019 07:42

The point of the news is clear if anyone understands the company and general news.

First up the nomad has decided it was material and needed to be released.

But the main point.

VRS had been in sample supply, collaborations and testing with some with no collaboration.

This seems to be one that just went straight to testing.

They clearly liked what they saw in tests so have moved to in field testing. VRS know what the use is and therefore have a fair idea of how much will be needed. More likely the oil related company has declared how much they would need in the DD process to confirm VRS can supply it.

This isn't about 12kgs, 12kgs confirms it's field trails and take out the speculation point on how much has been supplied at this stage.

It is telling us one interested party has now gone to field trials and could result in significant orders.

When oil juniors are in play.

They do reports on the system, they talk about prospects, they mobilise a rig, they spud, they get initial mud logs.

All of which they report in news along the way, typically a share price will rise as the drilling commences.

If there are herd members here with no clue what graphene is can you please about 12kg then please foxtrot oscar to something you may understand.

Not you amt, just saying.

[bobsworth] 30/6/2019 07:31

Spot on Superg1

Key message from latest RNS
“The Versarien GNP-HP enhanced material will be used by the Customer in down-hole drilling components for their initial scale up process. If the scale up is successful, additional significantly larger orders are anticipated.”

Knowing the speed at which USA oil & gas exploration works I suspect that now this GNP-HP enhanced material has quickly passed from lab testing and into oil field scale up we will not have too long to wait to see if scale up is successful resulting significantly larger orders.

The naysayers don’t want to hear it but looks to me like VRS could at long last be getting very close to commercialisation on a significant scale on this one application.

Fingers crossed then field scale up is successful.

[spid81] 30/6/2019 07:30

Morning AMT, You are miles off with the Graphene price,

Terrence Barkan - Executive Director of the Graphene Council = The company that completed the certification of Versarien's Nanene Graphene,

Provided the following video that was released in June 2019

At 2:06min he discloses the current prices for the different types of graphene, (table shown)

GNP-HP would be considered as MLG 2-10 layers (1.30min slide) - He disclosed the price for MLG is $60-1500 per kg. This would indicate that the USA order for the GNP-HP would be worth between $720-18000.


According to the slide (2.06min), FLG / Nanene should see a price of around $100-$2000 per kg

[superg1] 30/6/2019 07:15

So we now have some well known scumbags not understanding the RNS and thus demonstrating they haven't a frigging clue about real graphene.

[chillpill] 30/6/2019 07:15

Scrutable,

Glad to hear you are a fan of OXB. I think they will have an exciting H2.

It would be a natural progression for them to move to Nasdaq now they have the debt sorted and Novo Nordisk onboard.

[superg1] 30/6/2019 07:14

I think there is some confusion here.

Take the amount out of the news.

Versarien plc (AIM: VRS), the advanced materials engineering group, is pleased to announce that the Company has secured its first graphene order from a US based company, operating in the oil and gas exploration sector

The Versarien GNP-HP enhanced material will be used by the Customer in down-hole drilling components for their initial scale up process. If the scale up is successful, additional significantly larger orders are anticipated.

So if the news had been that then you potentially have a large company in oil wanting to use it in drilling. We know investors go nuts over anything oil and gas related.

So with the amount speculation would run wild on how much that initial order amounted to.

So they have put it in there which is 12 kgs. As most investors understanding general loading levels we know that will be in material in a range from about 400kgs to 2 tonnes (.5% to 3% loadings)


It's just 12 kgs and I think that is what the RNS is about, I say just but the 12 gives enough info to deduce that its for field tests with the lab part done.

It must be field testing as it says

enhanced material will be used by the Customer in down-hole drilling components for their initial scale up process. If the scale up is successful, additional significantly larger orders are anticipated.


So the 12 kgs imo is about accuracy, 12 kg so far, which saves all the speculation and if the field
trials go well orders of a much higher scale are anticipated EG tonnes as in the interview.

[superg1] 30/6/2019 07:05

Amt

Now compare that to Charo, the pensioner that has been trashing most shares for many years.

"Order value between $250/2500 at highest"

That is totally ridiculous the other way and is just fiction for his life long trend of trashing shares.

[superg1] 30/6/2019 07:01

amt

I'm confused re your comments.

"Why don't you think the graphene cost is going to be at least 100usd per gram. If that's the cost then the selling price will be many times higher."


That seems to read that you think the GNPs cost $100 per gram to produce which is completely incorrect.

There is one type that is expensive to produce and that is CVD graphene but that has nothing to do with GNPs and what GNPs are use for.

Don't confuse the Mclaren watch example with reality. At that time graphene samples were quoted as high as $400 grams to buy as small samples.

A gram of CVD to buy is still many £millions.


These deals we see building up if fully evolved will amount to many tonnes per customer well beyond VRS current capacity. That isn't an issue for VRS as the 9 tonnes is 3 modules and so on, but there is bigger scale up kit available. In engineering you have to be sure scaling up retains the desired end result.

Sony or Samsung made that mistake in CVD, they took the lab idea and scaled it up massively and it didn't work.

EG if VRS were to have a deal with one for 10 tonnes per year and you are talking $100 plus per gram .

So in that case 10 tonnes would be $10 billion revenue for VRS with kit currently on $3 billion capability.

20% margin 10 tonnes = $200 mill profit (£154 mill).

Current shares = about 15p per £1 mill profit PE 15.

Tax would be that much under patent box rules, but either way it's daft figures, but then you say it should be multiples of $100.

So if you had a 10 tonne order in play with your thoughts then the share price would be somewhere between £20 and £40 on that order, then add again for the next one.

I think they have thought of units to do 250 tonnes.

Hence what you post does not make any sense. There is no way large orders would be anywhere near $100 per gram, not even close.

Perhaps you are in kg mode re the potential. I can assure you we are talking multiple tonnes with various end users. That was made clear in that recent interview.

The forecast by experts for the mid 2020's is 35,000 tonnes. That is just pie in the sky, it could be a whole lot more or a whole lot less or take longer.

As Aecom said, they expect nano materials to be in 50% of all construction materials by that time.

So if you think of a 1% to 3% loading in 50% of construction materials it's a hell of a lot more than 35,000 tonnes.


Think of the Chinese road tunnel example, how many tonnes of concrete does it take for 750km of tunnels. If only 10% of those need an enhanced concrete it's still an unfathomable figure to us mere mortals.

[spid81] 30/6/2019 01:42

Hi 1retirement,

How much do you think VRS sold the GNP-HP for per kg?

[empoggio] 30/6/2019 00:09

How much is a kilo of BBQ charcoal? It's Carbon after all!