Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 24/3/2021 16:11

You should email Investor Relations and the CEO with your questions and suggestions.

[lsoc85] 24/3/2021 12:17

This thread is fascinating, on both sides of the coin. Even VK, who admittedly has gone quiet of late.

I recently got in at c.113p on the basis of the GSK windfall and the subsequent cash injection which I hoped would be used to grow revenue through accretive acquisitions/CDMOs.

When the special div was announced (not declared) I thought, oh well, there should be a spike in anticipation of such a large distribution. But the opposite has happened and the price is drifting down as folk presumably feel they can cash in for more now than than they would benefit from 19p per share.

My question therefore, to both bulls and bears, is the following: Is it too late for the board to go back on their intended dividend and instead introduce a progressive dividend policy, starting at a more modest 4/5p, and use the rest to promote growth through aqcuisitions/CDMOs? Would that even lead to a more bullish share price or has ALL confidence in the board been eroded? All thoughts are welcome and I would be grateful for them. Cheers

[boadicea] 24/3/2021 10:12

The market is a collective index of expectations.
On that basis a sensibly adjusted p/e of 10 suggests that VEC is seen a a barely safe stodgy investment offering little prospect of growth. A history of never having paid an ordinary dividend supports this perception although its cash flow could have afforded one albeit requiring a balance sheet rearrangement.
Clearly, there is no expectation factored in that this is about to change.
However, change comes to everything in the end and at the present time it is tending to come faster.
The management are unlikely to be given long to show that they are steering VEC on a dynamic path forward before others with more imagination and purpose decide to take command. The materials are all there - a stable market position for the next year or two as a base, a wadge of uncommitted cash to play with and a favourable geographical location.
Some of the partnerings that could have caused complications in the past have now expired or been terminated so there are fewer impediments to an acquisition.

[a1ord53] 24/3/2021 09:52

Polaris, I am afraid that you are frustrated that you are not holding on here.
I was shaken out half of my holding sub 70p and reentered unfortunately not all lost positions at 85-90p .
My view on Vectura much much better now and I think divi will give opportunity to reinvest them here and around.
My recommendation is Buy - target price 130p after exdivi sometime in autumn.

[polaris] 24/3/2021 09:24

But that number is BS due to one-offs. The core adjusted EBITDA is a better indication and that was 10.3 p for 2020.

[colsmith] 24/3/2021 09:20

clearly depends on how a stock is valued but one metric is PE, and for VEC its a lowly 5.48.

[a1ord53] 24/3/2021 09:13

To all BTG holders , I am also did well with Btg until their last acquisition.At this time share price hit 820p and I sold some , but Dame ( ceo of Btg) promised FTSE 100 and I reentered and was unhappy after reentering ;(!
Eventually escaped with average share price 700p.
For me the Dame was good brave merger and acquisition person, but many businesses did harm share price and without them share price could be much higher.
The Dame was also very arrogant and never was listen to retail shareholders.
She didn’t keep all promises and Boston Scientific saved her.
Missed oportunities in particularly Varisolve and many others.She was also bad marketing person. Her PR people were also unfriendly and arrogant.
She also raised a lot of funds in many offering , which also created a lot of hick ups for share price and shareholders.
Protherics acquisition brought a lot of revenues to BTG thanks to rattle snake vaccine.
Poorly was managing currency exchange and lost a lot of money.
Pity , that instead 2000p only 840p . If Boston had not bought BTG , share price could go to 3-400p .
Lucky Dame.

PS Btg major shareholders almost identical to Vectura shareholders .

[volvo] 24/3/2021 08:39

The markets are starting to take into account the defensive nature of VEC, oodles of cash in the bank and super steady established revenue stream with chance of upside.

[fhmktg] 24/3/2021 08:08

Agreed!I don't think she has taken on any new roles since leaving btg.Kate Bingham would do if she was looking to spread her wings away from fund management!

[base7] 24/3/2021 07:44

I too was a long term investor via Biocompatibles & over the years it provided a fantastic return of around 15 bags.We could do with The retired Dame emerging as Chairman here for a final hurrah as she certainly had an eye for a deal & growth , unlike our current Chairman !I did email her & suggested the same & she responded quickly & professionally , completing swerving my suggestion .Her appointment would see our share price immrediately re rate

[fhmktg] 24/3/2021 07:27

BTG paid off for me....now I look to VEC & Angle to follow through as well.It's great shame that we can't retain and build a global Company here in the UK but at least our science base continues to pay off for patients worldwide.

[justiceforthemany] 23/3/2021 23:13

BTG a good example - cash rich for years, finally taken over in 2019.

BTG PLC, the company best known for its rattlesnake antivenom CroFab, has become the latest company in the U.K. healthcare sector to be snapped up in the last 18 months, after the U.S.'s Boston Scientific Corp. bid 840 pence per share for the group, valuing it at £3.3 billion.

CEO Louise Makin took over the top job at the London-based group some 14 years ago when the shares were trading at just under 100 pence apiece.

[volvo] 23/3/2021 20:20

Believe me VEC is currently a nice sized morsel for many companies

[polaris] 23/3/2021 16:14

Can't be long now until Cipla get their decision from FDA...Hikma need to get that launch out or the market shrinks again...

[richman777114] 23/3/2021 16:02

polaris,at least we have possible short term drivers of the generic Advair relaunch and the special divii think there is scope for decent share price recovery post ex div-the share price was around 90p when the 6p divi was paid and it recovered pretty rapidly

[polaris] 23/3/2021 15:44

The target from several years ago was met. Shame i missed the bulk of it due to bad position timing and losses elsewhere forcing me to close. Anyone who did ride it from 70 to 125 must be happy.

Now, i am in for trading reasons. I know what my limits are set at. They are way below some of the forecasts here but i do think the share price is lower than it should be given the current prospects. That is down to lack of thrust from management.

I am disappointed with apparent lack of progress on Ellipta. QVM149 will add to revenues this year and into the future. Disappointed with the VR315 approval/launch farce (though that lies squarely with Hikma). Disappointed with Symbicort generic in Europe. VR2081 seems to have also disappeared without trace - the US version of this. VEC and partners should be promoting these developments and timeline. They are not. That is why the share price is languishing. Those developments have a lot of latent value...given the right promotion.

I believe that VEC trades at less than the sum of its parts. However, i do feel this management team have failed to light things up. If they really were a leading CDMO i'd expect the cash to go on acquisitions to bolster that position. They are bit-part players running a company that relies on legacy IP, albeit very lucrative legacy IP.

[a1ord53] 23/3/2021 15:02

Diesel, Alex , don’t forget that you will have 19p divi and share price will be 90p and its very low valuation for Vectura, so you could buy a lot for bargain price using divis cash !
After divi Vectura will still have more than 100 mil cash and something about 150-200 mil at the yearend!

[alexchry] 23/3/2021 14:15

I was referring to CDMO revenue, the profit may just pay the director's salaries!

[a1ord53] 23/3/2021 13:50

Diesel, Alexchry, you are wrong with 27 mil.
You forgot Ellipta royalties from GSK( another 5 years ) and another payments from GSK, Pacira, Advair nobody knows 1 mil or 15 mil $ ? , plus ongoing joint ventures and new revenues from Europe .
After Advair they learnt how to deal with FDA and generic Elipta could be developed much faster imo.Don’t forget that it’s line of five Elipta products !
Again if CDMO will get 200-300 molecules bank within 2-3 years( now they have 27
molecules) , chances are high to get steady long lasting income for many years.
Vectura atleast half of it is growth company and valued as commodity company. Should be rerated !

[alexchry] 23/3/2021 11:56

Agree with you Diesel, not sure what attractions VEC have for a predator. Advair generic nearly five years late which doesn't augur well for Ellipta project which is many years away. No significant new developments for over five years and new management have put their faith in CDMO but a forecast revenue of £27M is insignificant for a company valued at nearly £700M. I bought my shares in 2005 in SKP, a drug development company, and have only sold a few to fund home improvements. The company has completely changed so I think it's time to start reducing my holding, something I should have done when Advair generic first failed approval. Polaris may disagree with my view and I always take his opinions seriously but I get the impression that he is not as bullish about Vec's prospects as he once was or perhaps that's just me reading him wrongly to support my own view.

[diesel] 23/3/2021 10:12

To make money in investing, or at least not to lose too much, it’s important to remain realistic, that is to look at both sides of the investment case.
Vec is not an ideal candidate for takeover, that’s not to say it couldn’t happen just don’t rely on that as part of your strategy.
As I see it, the move to CDMO has yet to convince the market, a growing trend of business, revenue and profits has to be visible.
The one issue that has damaged credibility is the Advair generic, even though the problem may well not be helped by the US regular authorities if the triple therapy generic was to follow the same timescale we are years away from the market opportunities and who knows what the landscape will be then.
The value here needs to be demonstrated by dynamic and agile management and the jury is still out for me.

[volvo] 23/3/2021 07:59

Ace, why would someone like to buy VEC?

Well, it would fit nicely with many companies, for example Hikma would welcome its patents and products, along with its pretty consistent profitable turnover, being earning enhancing immediately, generic Ellipta development and Advair, and of course over £200m in the bank as a sweetner.....you can replace Hikma with any number similar plays.

The market is disenchanted with VEC and the near term visible price drivers....doesn't make it bad company, which it isn't. Strong and defensive actually. There is decent value here

[justiceforthemany] 22/3/2021 21:24

I find it very, very hard to believe Vectura has not been approached for a buy out. Especially now with the cash hoarde and court win.