Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[vecturaking] 15/3/2021 14:12

Yes as you Guyz can tell

I am very bullish on Vectura and I have been as well

But now the Time has come

18/3/21 will be the Start of the Rerating

You will find the Smart money always follows me

And of course the analysis will as well

[dlem] 15/3/2021 12:54

There have been a couple of JVs this year with the objective of reviving previously written-down IPR. Are these assets revalued based on the probable future cashfows or do they remain impaired?

[boadicea] 15/3/2021 12:42

polaris - Referring to the arrival of moneys - Yes... but VEC having an uncontested court order (appeals having failed) in their favour, are they not entitled to list GSK as a debtor?

[polaris] 15/3/2021 11:53

Yes - that is indeed true. The recognition of the notional losses has meant that tax payments are lower. Don't tell that to the original SKP and VEC shareholders though who have seen about £400 M of shareholder value wiped out over last 4 years. Some of the write-downs were necessary for failure of products to meet development endpoints. Most of it could have been written off one-time, but then you don't get the tax benefits. In cases like VEC, i tend to favour the EBITDA figure as an indicator of the health of the business, coupled with the Enterprise Value. The issue i have is that many would-be investors will only look at the headline numbers and P/E. On that metric, VEC is a non-starter and will be for FY2020 too. Monies only arrived in post-period.

On the return of cash, it is not a easy question. VEC will flirt with expulsion from the FTSE250 again if they return too much cash to shareholders. That will not help the II shareholder register. Having a large amount of cash sat on the balance sheet doing nothing is a waste too. I'd actually favour an acquisition to strengthen the strategy change if there is something out there that fits well...no, i don't have any suggestions.

Maybe we will see some progress on Thursday. At the very least i want a full update in the results presentation.

[boadicea] 15/3/2021 11:09

Greenc/polaris - I think you are both saying the same thing, i.e. that the negativity in the balance sheet is an archane accountancy convention.
The situation will resolve itself eventually - in fact quite soon, I think, with signs of that approaching in the last interims. The settlement of the GSK position will accelerate that and the next BS should look significantly different.
The upside of the notional 'losses' has been minimal tax payments which is a real cash effect.
Has it affected market perception of VEC?
It certainly affects headline statistics, primarily p/e ratio. Analysts will (or should) look well beyond that. From a survival aspect, cash flow is even more important.
As regards a return of capital by whatever method, it would logically reduce the market capitalisation if deducted in the share price and we are currently only marginally within the FTSE250. However efficient utilisation of the available cash and a sensible, steady and progressive dividend policy could transform our market position by a substantial margin imo.

[jimboyce] 15/3/2021 10:29

I note that the Algos have ceased so far today.

[diesel] 15/3/2021 09:32

Is that as imminent as the same post before Xmas?

[vecturaking] 15/3/2021 08:37

Imminent Rerating on Results

150pence Target

With 200pence end of the year

Dividends on the cards

Enjoy the Ride up

[volvo] 15/3/2021 08:10

Only a mere 3 more days until results and the super exciting CDMO future is mapped out and the world gets a glimpse at the bulging bank account.

[polaris] 14/3/2021 19:46

What negative position? These are goodwill, amortisation and intangibles from the SKP/VEC merger. VEC have no debt! The ridiculous nature of accounting. The cash just adds to that VEC already have. The day to day business has been profitable for several years, despite the headline losses.

[greenc] 14/3/2021 17:39

I have a large position in Vectura (from early SKP days), both spreads and shares, and have added further recently, but I'm no accountant.

Instead of any special dividend, would it not be more logical/practical/possible at this stage, and a better first use of the money from GSK, to resolve the remaining negative position in the balance sheet, the one thing that appears to be a constant drag on any financial view of the company?

With that out of the way, and obviously based on performance, maybe then introduce regular dividends going forward?

Just a thought.

[a1ord53] 12/3/2021 14:43

Hikma, dripping down. Execution very poor concerning Advair.
Vec trading - after taking huge 5,03% position by Polygon - brokers who sold it , hedging their CFD‘s - aprox equivalent of 30 mil Vec shares - its why so so volitile.
Otherwise , look at major shareholders - they control 85% of Vectura - so no really big institutions left to buy Vectura - so only one exit strategy is to find buyer/s for all Vectura/ takeover. Fresh money imo not exists for Vectura !
Or Vectura will be growth company and will be rerated !?

[richman777114] 12/3/2021 13:25

volatile today-hit 116.4p at around 11.45am

[diesel] 12/3/2021 08:54

JFTM...an acquisition or at least a nod toward growing the business. But share buybacks and special divvies are fairly neutral as far as investor value go. In fact if they gave the whole $200m back to investors as a special divvy the share price would drop by 20p.
The long term graph above doesn’t reflect the underlying business performance, strip out the GSK monies and the share price would be around the 90p mark.
I strongly believe that the Advair fiasco has dented market confidence in delivering a triple therapy generic in anything like a reasonable timeframe.

[justiceforthemany] 11/3/2021 17:07

The recent share price performance here has been disappointing to say the least. Board need to look at all three of: an earnings enhancing acquisition, special dividend and share buy back. If they are not up to this and feel growth is too difficult they need to arrange a sale of the company.

[richman777114] 11/3/2021 15:00

my understanding from the RNS is that they only hold CFDs-no shares

[westofengland] 11/3/2021 14:43

Polygon quite often hold their shares for many years. I think its bullish that they have a significant position as they are good arbiters of value as indicated by 18BT.

[richman777114] 11/3/2021 14:18

yep i know re cfdsmy point was that Polygon won't be interested in working with mgmt they're just in here for a quick returnabsolutely no doubt that the price is being manipulated ahead of the finals week today and confirmation of £200m cash at bank and maybe a special diviit would be good if GSK would put us all out of our misery and get their dosh back

[a1ord53] 11/3/2021 13:37

So more big guys and institutions buying Vec , so more small algo guys selling to shake out retail investors and scare them.
It’s going on for years, same was with BTG - eventually bought by Boston scientific with 35% premium.

Richman -CFD doesn’t pay taxes , no duty stamps - financing under 2%

Otherwise all major investors know what to expect in coming results , so nobody interesting to buy yet , may be everything already discounted in share price ?

[richman777114] 11/3/2021 13:36

isn't the Polygon position CFDs so just a short term punt?

[18bt] 11/3/2021 07:22

In my experience Polygon do deep research on their investments, employing their own expert advisers. They can be supportive of management, but keep up a constant dialogue to understand the decisions being made.

[base7] 10/3/2021 18:14

They have only invested as they detect value to be outed - apart from the cash already on the Balance Sheet.it will be interesting to see whether they will increase their holding ahead of results & then lobby for change in order to try to secure more value.SP fall & increased volume I suspect relates to some form of manipulation while they & /or others build their holdings.

[2bluelynn] 10/3/2021 17:18

Big volume today some late trades !

[westofengland] 10/3/2021 14:51

I would say that having Polygon as shareholders is a major positive. They are smart people and get it right more often than not.

[vecturaking] 10/3/2021 14:21

The Volcano will Erupt

2021 is the volcano year for Vectura

Expansion of production facility is just
One reason

$200 Million GSK LawSuit will be Another reason

Declare a regular Dividend or a Special
Dividends

Which ever may be the Reason

The ReRating will propel the share price
Up to 150pence and swiftly to 200pence

Enjoy results revised to 18/3/21