Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[jimboyce] 19/3/2021 10:16

Does the 135p include the 19p Divi?

[diesel] 19/3/2021 10:16

Alex, you’re right.
There are many here that have an unhealthy positive view despite the evidence.
The market will value this on the confidence in the management and that includes the relationship with Hickma. Advair generic is still not on the market! It has taken 10 weeks so far to sort out a packaging issue! This will have a bearing on confidence.
The CDMO business might well be a profitable course but it is too early to tell, the revenues to date are inconclusive.
I still have a large stake here but I’m less bullish than I was 6 months ago and presently do not see much upside.

[volvo] 19/3/2021 09:11

Any news on Pacira, again we are due 30m bonus here this year

[a1ord53] 19/3/2021 09:06

Alexchry, disagree with you :

1. Elipta development takes time but Vectura has knowledge ( know how) and its high probability that they will do it.Low risk.
2. 2 joint ventures.
3. Molecules bank with 27 molecules in development - other companies with one molecule having hundreds of millions valuations.Its like start ups incubator and Vectura being paid for development and participate upside !
Undervalued IMHO !

[volvo] 19/3/2021 09:06

It is now 2 months since the FDA stopped the Hikma launch of Advair.

According to their own timetable Hikma will get approval again next week to start sales in the US.

VEC's 15pc royalties on all sold is mega positive

[alexchry] 19/3/2021 08:51

CDMO forecast revenue not very significant and Ellipta may be many, many years away given that Advair is four years late and still not released for sale so am not surprised that target price has been reduced. The change of direction may pay off and the Ellipta development may go swimmingly but no evidence for either at the moment, current income is almost all generated by old developments including the big chunk from GSK.

[a1ord53] 19/3/2021 08:30

JPMorgan cuts target price to 135p from 140p although imo Vectura is much better now when it was .
They valuate Vectura like commodity company and not biotech company.
They don’t valuate generic Elipta development at all.
CDMO with already 27 molecules not validated at all.
Also Vec has a couple joint ventures - not in as well.
Very unprofessional !

[elsol] 19/3/2021 08:22

I'm expecting some brokers notes highlight this under valuation soon...I'll give it a week.

[base7] 19/3/2021 08:04

I increase my substantial holding ( for me ) by 109% on Wed , ahead of results,& I hope we make a couple of CDMO bolt on acquisitions this year to boost the perception of our ambitions in this area & accelerate the growth

[pinemartin9] 19/3/2021 07:58

You would have thought the muted response to excellent results is a buy signal. Solid, defensive, growing, what's not to like. I dont worry about my holding here.

[volvo] 19/3/2021 07:47

TEMPUS
Change in direction promises growth

[volvo] 19/3/2021 07:08

Full transcript of yesterday's results presentation.....it really was quite a bullish statement and worth a read if you missed it.

Opening paragraph....

We had to move the original date of the 9th of March, which was due to unforeseen last minute resourcing constraints with our auditor KPMG, due to COVID. As you'll see in our earnings today, this is absolutely in no way related to our financial performance as a company and today, we're delighted to be able to announce results that are ahead of expectations.

[vecturaking] 18/3/2021 19:38

I stick to my prediction

ReRating is imminent 130pence will be swift With 150pence Very Soon

200pence by the end of 2021 is Viable

Make no mistake of the numbers

Or there Targets

2021 is the volcano year for Vectura

[elsol] 18/3/2021 18:59

This observed subdued share price rise on good intrinsic value performance data shows VEC is somehow under the radar of large investors. But all it takes is a strong buy brokers note which I suspect is coming in this next week.

[volvo] 18/3/2021 15:22

I stick with my earlier prediction of the share price going up the 19p divi to 135-140p then handing this back on ex divi.

[a1ord53] 18/3/2021 13:58

Paul, where are you going to park proceeds from Vectura ? If it’s not secret ?

PS GSK Petition dead line moved to end of April brought some excuse not to buy today imo!

[polaris] 18/3/2021 13:50

Right now, i'd take the low 130s. In fact, that is where the limit are set on current positions because i wanted to use the proceeds for other trading positions. I was expecting much more in terms of price action today.

[volvo] 18/3/2021 13:40

polaris agree, cheap is cheap in any language....but in my experience it will be eventually righted one way or another, graph in a solid up turn ready to go higher that recent highs over 130p

[polaris] 18/3/2021 13:30

If i was US listed and in this space then i'd be taking a good, hard look.

$1 Bn market cap for a company with approaching $300 M in cash on the balance sheet, an operating profit of $86 M in 2020 on sales of around $270 M (EBITDA margin of 32.3 %), gross margin above 50 % and an almost 100 % increase on FCF over the previous year to over $33 M.

Stick a 30 % premium on that and run the numbers for a US speciality pharma typical rating and you still get earnings accretion!

edit
Add to that, nicely packaged in geographical footprint and fiscal complexity.

[polaris] 18/3/2021 13:21

Maybe people expected more...

Consensus estimates £177.5 M and 5.56 p v £190.6 M and 10.3 p actuals
(as consensus was using adjusted EBITDA from last few years)

Go figure! :-/

They even tried to downplay the cash return by putting it well down the list, to highlight the operational performance. Almost as if this part has been completely overlooked. 19.3 p per share...yeh, whatever, it's not happening for a few months...

[justiceforthemany] 18/3/2021 13:16

Ridiculous share price response today on better than expected results and a 20% special dividend. Short sellers manipulating the SP?

[dlem] 18/3/2021 13:03

Polaris, your analysis is spot on. I think a takeover approach is likely (maybe Hikma?)

[jimboyce] 18/3/2021 12:57

Special Divi to be paid by 30/6/21.