Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[a1ord53] 23/12/2020 10:08

Yesterday I called federal circuits court of appeal. No petition from GSK.
It means that now low court will send mandate to GSK/Vectura and after receipt of mandate GSK WILL HAVE TO PAY WITHIN 30 days.
GSK can file petition to Supreme Court but money they have to pay . If supreme court will reverse decision of appeal and low court, then Vectura will have to return funds to GSK.
Supreme court rarely accept these kind of petitions.So GSK chances almost zero.
I think target prices should be in a range 180-200p.
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL !

[elsa7878] 23/12/2020 08:36

The point of forecasts is that they will incorporate elements of what is likely. So in this case the most recent Numis (House broker) forecast assumed a 90% chance that they won their case against GSK. Assuming that is the case the upside the share price should be in the order of 2p. Other brokers might have modelled it differently. Advair? No idea about timelines or anticipated sales. No doubt it was expected to be launched just a case of when. So the forecasts of 6p for 2021 are probably fairly accurate. I genuinely think this is interesting but can't fully invest without seeing some numbers.

[volvo] 23/12/2020 08:22

Cash breakdown, £90m existing cash, £130m from GSK (after tax), £24m from Exparel payment, £8m from Hikma last week....£252m or £250m for cash :)

[volvo] 23/12/2020 08:09

Dodkin how much in your working have you allowed for a cash pot of £250m? Because as of today that is more than 35pc of the current market cap....or just over 40p

Cash and earnings are different, but cash is cash and a quarter of a £billion on the books is massive.

That much cash will make the company super vunerable to a take over

[dodkins] 23/12/2020 00:06

I was using older broker targets which are currently ave. of 130 I think, plus others workings on here. These were before recent good news so I think we are all assuming they will be re-rated up to ave 160 or beyond. Here's my workings tonight (my first time so please correct - gently)

P/E = Price/EPS
IF EPS goes to 1, then
P/E = 120/1 = 120
IF underlying EPS is 8, then
Fwd P/E = 120/8 = 15
P/E ave for sector = 24
Fwd Price = 24x8 = 192

Comments?

[elsa7878] 22/12/2020 23:53

Irrelevant - seems inconceivable that everybody here has based their investment without speaking to the management or at least using some research as a basis. Even if the research is months out of date you an at least make some rough amendments oneself.
I called the company today but doubt I'll get a call back until the new year.

[dodkins] 22/12/2020 20:41

I imagine they'll wait for details of the GSK payout first.

[elsa7878] 22/12/2020 20:02

So nobody has a broker note and no one has spoken to the management. Is that correct?

[dodkins] 22/12/2020 19:40

Same here. Looking at the financials, it looks like we will finally return to positive EPS which means we will also have a P/E which isn't n/a. I'm not sure how big a red flag these designations are to investors but this sounds like a positive change in financial PR.

[boadicea] 22/12/2020 19:31

So I should be resigned to becoming even more overweight in these shares. Very worrying!

[volvo] 22/12/2020 17:49

Added 50pc more yesterday....see a great outcome here

[a1ord53] 22/12/2020 16:46

GSK looks like didnt file petition for rehearing in court of appeal.
So if no hidden surprises , GSK WILL HAVE TO PAY immediately !

[volvo] 22/12/2020 16:31

Yes VEC is out of favour but it will trade comfortably at 150p post the GSK monies in the bank and the first few months of Hikma Advair sales are released.

[polaris] 22/12/2020 15:25

Err... well over £300 M of write-offs and goodwill from the merger. Quite a lot of that remaining arises from the IP value of Flutiform. Think there is still around £165 M to pass through the balance sheet between now and the end of the patent cover.

[dodkins] 22/12/2020 15:18

When do the write offs end? It feels like the net-loss headline figure (26m in 2019) is what's holding the share price back, regardless of what's causing it or how much money is in the bank.

[a1ord53] 22/12/2020 14:54

No filing as of now for rehearing.
Dead line was yesterday.

[justiceforthemany] 22/12/2020 14:52

Cash balance will be ~ £250M post-award
Very low volume today

[vecturaking] 22/12/2020 13:33

Major ReRating set to kick in Soon

150pence Target

With
200pence early next year

[polaris] 22/12/2020 13:32

There are still many out there that do not understand the strength of the VEC balance sheet. The write-offs really distort the actual, on-going business. H1 results showed an operating profit of £2.9 M or 0.3 p per share. However, adjusted EBITDA showed a profit of £23.1 M, around 3.8 p per share on post tranche 2 shares in circulation. Cash generation from operating activities was £19.9 M and cash pile £81.9 M. H2 will be similar to H1 and so the FY reported profit will be a function of the H2 goodwill and amortisation charges...all non-cash! The actual business, represented by the adjusted EBITDA, will be closer to 8 p per share. Cash generation will be impacted by the timing of the milestone recognition and the outflow from the tranche 2 buyback, but will be positive in H2. My guess is the cash pile will be around £90 M, before GSK impact.

[justiceforthemany] 22/12/2020 13:15

SP should be a lot higher given GSK win, cash pile and Advair approval. Bizarre.

[volvo] 22/12/2020 10:36

Normal settlement from a damages case in the US takes approx 6 weeks, we are entering the 5th week now.

The two sides will be arranging the payment figures right now imo.

Expecting news anytime really, may drag into the new year

[a1ord53] 22/12/2020 09:31

In Vectura statement on 19.11.20 :

“ GSK has 30 days to file a petition for rehearing.”

[best1467] 22/12/2020 08:58

Surely if the Appeal date is as suggested then I don’t understand why we have not had an RNS which leads me believe it’s not the case no pun intended

[elsa7878] 22/12/2020 08:46

Thanks Volvo. Seeing a broker note would really help but can't find one anywhere. Anyone got a line into the company. They always have them but are generally reluctant to pass them on unless you have some sort of relationship. Anyone been communicating with any of the senior management team who they could ask?

[a1ord53] 22/12/2020 08:40

Thanks Andrew, same to you !
Happy and Healthy coming New Year !