Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[fhmktg] 24/11/2020 13:41

That should come through in time for Christmas or soon after to meet Hikma's expected 'early 2021' launch target?

[diesel] 24/11/2020 13:13

Until they get the Advair generic through their confidence doesn’t count for much...

[base7] 24/11/2020 12:31

Still awaiting news on our Elipta generic JV with HIK & it has been some time since the JV was announced so the news due will hopefully that submissions have been made & that Hik/Vec are confident of the outcome

[diesel] 24/11/2020 10:29

Agree GB...,the award hasn’t been fully reflected in the share price yet, a definitive confirmation should see another 10-20p added.

[gbcol] 24/11/2020 10:07

Jb - and possibly a boost when either confirmed that GSK have/are paying up or that petition has been rejected.

[jimboyce] 24/11/2020 09:42

Only now one term short term catalyst.........Advair.

[fhmktg] 23/11/2020 15:59

With a conservative majority on the court...not a chance, particularly with sentiment against 'Big Pharma', unless you are making vaccine for Covid.Damage limitation needed.

[westofengland] 23/11/2020 15:15

Yes, thinking of you Pooroldboy and wishing you a solid recovery.

[a1ord53] 23/11/2020 15:14

So called Analysts ?
After Vec and skp merger Numis had target price 206p . Vectura missed Advair , but won GSK case. So all royalties coming back.
So it looks like Advair worth 90p ?
But since then Vectura received some milestones and some european approvals as well.
Other analysts had at those time 160p average target price.
Nothing on side of Vectura changed beside Advair and everything perfect on SKP side and Vec share price is significantly down from the highs.
Obviously managements old and new incapable to sell Vec story successfully , but can successfully compensate themselves.They were and are happy.
May be there is no story to market ?
Where update on development Elipta ? and other businesses ? Secret !?
Any thoughts and ideas ? Thanks all in advance for sharing your views.

PS All analysts disappeared - Last recommendation was back in July by Peel Hunt .No updates on Gsk win .For me it looks like no support from analysts and management does nothing !

Ps How about suing Gsk for material damages GSK did to shareholders of Vectura ruining share price .

[best1467] 23/11/2020 14:30

Yes All the best Pooroldboy with your hopefully Rapid recovery

[slim9] 20/11/2020 23:41

Sunday papers / Pro active Investors / shares mag etc

May see a hover price 128 -133p

Just my thoughts .

S

& then the Brokers.

[polaris] 20/11/2020 18:49

justiceforthemany - they are non-cash items. There are no liabilities in that sense. It is a set of intangibles and goodwill arising from the VEC/SKP merger. It's been that way for a couple of years now. How can a loss making company build up a cash pile of £81.9 M while also returning £40 M to shareholders in a special dividend and making two sets of £10 M buybacks. It's all down to the recognition of the non-cash items.

[justiceforthemany] 20/11/2020 17:01

Earnings enhancing acquisition possible yes but given the lofty premiums and further intangibles/goodwill I would prefer they pay off the current liabilities (£59M), return a special dividend to shareholders &/or accept a bid in the region of 200p.

We are also firmly in the FTSE 250, £200M above the exit cut off and a massive 40% of the market cap is cash.

[justiceforthemany] 20/11/2020 16:51

Major resistance seemed to be around 127p from Jan 2018 but stopped short of that today at least.
Well above 200 day Moving Average.

[a1ord53] 20/11/2020 16:27

Polaris, I dont think that for US supreme court GSK VS VEC important enough to accept petition.
With a bad GSK reputation I see no chances for petition.

[polaris] 20/11/2020 16:22

Each level of court this goes to is a lower chance of success and more costs to GSK. The main thrusts of their appeal have been thrown out, with pretty good reasoning and basis. The only part that GSK could fight further on is the capped royalty, similar to the original agreement. Their chances of that are now also down the pan...IMO.

[a1ord53] 20/11/2020 16:18

Looks like investors afraid of possible GSK petition to supreme court.
I am doubting that petition wiil get chance for success.
But we will see in 29 days. GSK might file just to trouble VEC and VEC shareholders but there are no chances that petition will be accepted.

[srpactive] 20/11/2020 16:05

GBC

No doubt your words will be found to be wise with patience.

active

[gbcol] 20/11/2020 16:01

Yes rather disappointing but I guess there’s been a bit of profit taking. Can’t blame them but think a bit more patience will be well rewarded in fairly short order.

[srpactive] 20/11/2020 15:41

Well what a damn squib today after such a super start.

[alexchry] 20/11/2020 14:54

The market may well be seriously undervaluing VEC but the rise in the share price following the appeal judgement seems about right to me. Polaris estimated that the court judgement was worth around 22p a share so a rise of 11p seems as much as could be expected. However, I hope the big win may have encouraged investors to have another look at VEC. Advair approval would be the icing on the cake, I hope it's a Christmas one!

[justiceforthemany] 20/11/2020 14:22

Market is seriously undervaluing this.
Scandalous this is down today! After such a huge win!!

[alexchry] 20/11/2020 14:21

Same score and result as mine and I am still here after almost 16 years.

[polaris] 20/11/2020 14:07

Let's tally it all up for H1 results 2021 in terms of likely cash pile:

Cash at end of Q2 2020 - £81.9 M
Cash expected from GSK (post tax) - £135 M
Cash expected from generic Advair approval - £8.25 M
Potential for another £24 M from PCRX for final milestone for Exparel
There will be further FCF from on-going operations too.

Flutiform pays the bills, as we are well aware of, certainly if you add in the royalties from Utibro/Ultibron/Seebri to the mix. Together they make sure VEC is profitable at an operating level given the reduced R&D requirements.

At current 116 p, VEC is about £690 M market cap, post buyback. It has £85-90 M in cash (assuming a bit of FCF for H2 2020, offsetting second buyback tranche) with another £160 M expected in a 12 month timescale from today

Given the details above i think there is upside of 20 - 25 p on price, even before the impact of new sales generated by generic Advair (when finally approved...) and QVM149. CDMO progress to come on top of that and then there is the holy grail of generic Ellipta...

With the last two posts in mind, i've popped a quick 25 k position in, although it's taken a while to get the prices i wanted.

[fhmktg] 20/11/2020 13:50

Alexchry, POB, Polaris and any other Big C sufferers,Keep your spirits up; three years ago I was diagnosed with Gleason7 prostate cancer.Through the magnificent assessment from my surgeon and his skill with robotic surgery, I came out with a no spread, no lymph damage result.Simply have to get my psa reading every year to pick up any recurrence. For you younger guys, go early to your gp to get your psa level and keep going every one to two years!For investment, take a look at AGL for their blood test for cancer and metastasis....British market leading technology, awaiting its first FDA approvalGood luck all!Dum spiro spero.