Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[vecturaking] 18/12/2020 08:40

Still cheap in my opinion

Target 150 pence

With 200pence early next year

[srpactive] 18/12/2020 08:32

Surely this is not going to do the usual vec disappoint and finish red.

[srpactive] 18/12/2020 08:28

v

Mid teen royalty, it states too.

[volvo] 18/12/2020 08:24

Reading the Hikma news release they claim the US market for Advair is $2 billion, my figures above are based a $1 billion!!!

Things could be double ffs.

According to IQVIA, US sales of Fluticasone Propionate and Salmeterol Inhalation Powder USP, 100mcg/50mcg and 250mcg/50mcg, were approximately $2 billion in the 12 months ending September 2020

[peddlers] 18/12/2020 08:24

Don't sell

[alexchry] 18/12/2020 08:21

The first bit of really good news since SKP taken over and, if GSK fail to appeal further, the icing will be put on the cake later today, no need to buy one for Christmas!

[richtea2517] 18/12/2020 08:17

Poached eggs tasting nice this morning

[volvo] 18/12/2020 07:47

On further research my sales figures above seem about right on US sales.

Following the launch of Mylan's Wixela Advair generic, within the 2nd month of launch it had taken 28pc of the US market, roughly speaking $280m.

My assumption is Hikma will take a similar amount $280m, leaving GSK Advair sales around $440m, or less.

Would have been ideal to sow up the $200m plus GSK fine at the same point today.

See what the markets think today

[fhmktg] 18/12/2020 07:43

First hurdle jumped....now for GSK's decision on Appeal, later today.

[slim9] 17/12/2020 22:50

Old reference 2019 of INTEREST

hxxps://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/advair-0

Slim

[cumnor] 17/12/2020 19:12

Time we got some really good news here. Up to now its been financial (share buybacks, special divi etc) but nothing like success in the core business (producing a drug that works and gets approval in a large market like the US) to start the ball rolling and guarantee real revenue for years to come. Let's hope this is the start and old share price highs should be surpassed in the not too distant future.

[volvo] 17/12/2020 18:54

Will GSK step up......they must be tempted.

Fine of $220m loss of sales of Advair going forward, now the CEO states that Ellipta is the next target.

... lets see how this pans out.

[volvo] 17/12/2020 18:41

frazboy yes its high, according to Hikma from a standing start, they expected $30m-$40m from 3 months sales.

So on a base level $160m annual first year, but its my understanding that these things can ramp up pretty quickly.

So in the US $200m to $300m in year two totally acceptable. Markets work in front.

Whats GSK going to make of this?

Wille...."Approval of this product paves the way for our substitutable drug-device combination programme, also partnered with Hikma, for generic versions of the GSK Ellipta(R) portfolio, in the coming years."

[frazboy] 17/12/2020 18:31

Volvo - can you point to a press release where Hikma quotes those figures? Seems a bit high but I'm not saying you're wrong.

[volvo] 17/12/2020 18:28

Yes the pieces of the jigsaw are fitting into place.

Hikma were forecasting $200m to $300m per year sales so maybe $45m to $50m to VEC per year. Thats worth 30p on its own.

Now what will GSK think of all this???

[richtea2517] 17/12/2020 18:27

Makes the open tomorrow interesting.

[peddlers] 17/12/2020 18:18

Its all looking positive for us guys.
Think another top up is in order.

[vecturaking] 17/12/2020 18:12

Well well Well

ReRating has begun with the news AfterHours

Here’s to 150pence and 200pence in The new Year

[boadicea] 17/12/2020 17:54

It probably should have been somewhat anticipated but there hasn't been much evidence of that in the share price of late. The $11m of itself only adds a little over 1% of the current capitalisation but a mid-teen royalty as a steady earner should be worth more in due course.
I await polaris's more informed view of a likely valuation.

[base7] 17/12/2020 17:53

Fantastic news & great for WD to refer our Ellipta JV with HIK .Also great that HIK will be immediately producing & marketing so our first royalties should be in respect of Q1FY21 resulting in an improvement in our FY21 revenue & profit expectatins , as the royalties are 100% profit
Interesting that they chose to announce this evening rather than at 7am tomorrow.

[volvo] 17/12/2020 17:50

All coming to fruition boys

[bobo18] 17/12/2020 17:44

That's really positive - not only approved but rolled out and the $11m this year and mid teen royalties from no on....

[boadicea] 17/12/2020 17:43

Volvo - Now we know why -
"Vectura earns $11m milestone as Hikma receives US FDA approval for generic Advair Diskus(R)"

[broadgreen] 17/12/2020 17:36

Good news!!

[volvo] 17/12/2020 16:37

Strong auction 418,000 shares at 115.2p