Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[diesel] 09/7/2020 12:52

Trading update anytime this month, or maybe if it’s reasonably bullish they’ll delay it so as not to impair the value of the buybacks. Any other news, like Advair, they’ll have to release immediately, still confident here...

[polaris] 07/7/2020 10:02

I said a few days ago that I expected a couple of pieces of news in the next 1-6 weeks. The 'biggie' is the resubmitted generic Advair. It's a larger milestone and a larger royalty of net sales. The US market has held up in terms of total value better than i expected since the first generic entrant, so it can still be quite a revenue generator for another entrant. If it is 8 months after submission then it'll be the end of this month. If 10 months then end of September. Both would allow launch in FY2020.

[cockneytrader] 07/7/2020 09:58

I think the market is starting to wake up to the reality of the situation. A recession is now obviously on the cards with the risk of further flare ups. This is only getting started!

Good news will allow you to trade sideways only.

[polaris] 07/7/2020 09:30

This was expected news but the lack of any response from share price is unusual, as there is also an added bonus of Japan approval. 3 % of net sales isn't earth shattering but it is another revenue stream with 100 % margin.

[volvo] 07/7/2020 09:15

...more good news

[ambiorix1] 07/7/2020 08:12

Bingo Novartis 'Enerzair Breezhaler can be sold in 27 countries of Europe.

[ambiorix1] 07/7/2020 08:12

Bingo Novartis 'Enerzair Breezhaler can be sold in 27 countries of Europe.

[volvo] 07/7/2020 07:46

Been buying here over the last week or so, average out 96.7p.

Most companies are starting to reveal their recent and current trading and are outlining massive drops in turnover, coupled with sluggish recoveries.

All VEC need is something along the lines of current trading continues in line with expectations, with minimal disruption caused by the ww shutdown. Anything more would be a great bonus...and drive a rerating.

Its in the right place.

Update due mid July.

[base7] 06/7/2020 13:48

As ever I agree with your pragmatic view of the current position & our range bound share price A trading update is unlikely to produce anything to propel our share price beyond its current range ,either way .However & in addition to the expected news there must remain the possibility of the announcement of new deals/collaborations in respect of the direction which our new CEO & his trusted senior management team aspires you take us to & I am hoping that could result in a Markrt change in attitude towards us ,for the better .

[polaris] 06/7/2020 12:07

Trading elsewhere went a bit south so the VEC positions all closed, as I like at least a £10 k buffer on my open positions. I'm only holding my goldies and a much reduced TSLA short. That's what you get when trading and if things don't pan out as expected. It's nothing to do with the prospects of VEC.

VEC will no doubt bobble along until some new news hits the public domain. I will react accordingly depending on the available margin I have in my trading account. Seems to be range bound between mid 90s and the resistance at 105 p. That'll change at some point.

GSK litigation is dragging on...yet again. PCRX milestone will depend on recovery in the US for non-essential surgeries. There is also the pending EU submission for approval of Exparel. We will know more about that when PCRX report Q2.

By the end of the year I'd expect clarity on the approvals and the litigation, with at least some further indication on the timeline for the PCRX milestone.

Until then...remain range bound.

[a1ord53] 06/7/2020 11:21

Paul, how is going with Vec accumulating ?
Imo current share price does not reflect potentials like GSK settlement/win , Advair, Pacira milestone 32 mil , special dividends ...?
What is your opinion on current valuation of Vec..?
Thanks Paul a lot and thanks a lot to all for your views and opinions.


PACIRA BIOSCIENCES (NASDAQ PCRX) EARNINGS HISTORY BY QUARTER

Date Quarter Consensus Estimate Reported EPS GAAP EPS Revenue Estimate Actual Revenue
5/7/2020 3/31/2020 $0.30 $0.53



PACIRA BIOSCIENCES (NASDAQ:PCRX) EARNINGS ESTIMATES

2020 EPS Consensus Estimate: $1.64
Quarter Number of Estimates Low Estimate High Estimate Average Estimate
Q1 2020 2 $0.12 $0.15 $0.14
Q2 2020 2 ($0.16) $0.37 $0.11
Q3 2020 2 $0.48 $0.85 $0.67
Q4 2020 2 $0.52 $0.95 $0.74


On Litigation - conflict dates for arguments submitted and now judge will set up dates for arguments. It will be between August and end of the 2020.

[flemster] 05/7/2020 08:49

hxxps://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/VEC.LN/opinion

[westofengland] 02/7/2020 14:37

Diesel,

I agree. Likewise!

[diesel] 02/7/2020 14:26

Exactly Alex... we’re up about 40% in the last 18 months, not spectacular but a good return none the less. This is now one of my biggest holdings and I’m still confident that we can see similar growth in the next 12-18 months.

[alexchry] 02/7/2020 14:13

pob55-best not to think at all!

[pooroldboy55] 02/7/2020 11:43

Normal Paul nothing normal with VEC .perhaps only up am down pm.

Edit 12.05 pm
Why does it alway go opposite to what i say re up am down pm .So lets try think will going back to the low 70s.

[polaris] 02/7/2020 11:39

Ahh - back to normal. Random UT opening trade for 2 shares at 101.2!

[best1467] 01/7/2020 20:49

Don’t think this decision as much bearing on the $32 million milestone it looked nailed on for the Year end 2020 but with COVID 19 causing cancellations of many minor operations will probably be year end 2021 Now

[base7] 01/7/2020 18:29

Will hopefully help us achieve our final $32mill milestone

[a1ord53] 01/7/2020 13:15

Paul FYI :


BUZZ – Heron Therapeutics: Falls as FDA declines to approve non – opioid painkiller
29 Jun 2020 18:10
* Drug developer's shares fall 29.5% to $13.96
* Co says U.S. FDA once again declined to approve its non-opioid painkiller for post-operative pain and sought more data
* Says agency did not identify clinical or efficacy issue with the drug, but pointed out four non-clinical issues, including those relating to some additional ingredients of the treatment, HTX-011
* Cowen and Co cuts PT to $34 from $39; says FDA decision likely pushes HTX-011 launch to mid-2021


!!!! * Shares of rival Pacira Biosciences Inc soar 17.96% to $52.01 on the news



* HRTX stock down ~40% YTD

[polaris] 30/6/2020 15:55

Note the rise in PCRX from Friday on the back of the CRL against a competitor in the post operative pain sector. Might mean that Exparel sales continue their upward trajectory and that $32 M comes back onto the horizon for 12-month view from here...

[polaris] 30/6/2020 14:16

I certainly didn't sell my core holding at 60 p. I sold it on the way down from 85 p, once the support broke, as i was protecting margin. I then mistakenly bought on a Friday around 80 k and had to sell them on the Monday in the low 60s. That was a poor trade on my part, given the Covid situation. I broke one of my trading rules when buying on the Friday assuming the worst was over. Had I waited until the Monday I would have picked up 80 k in the low 60s and ridden them up to mid 90s. A more than £25 k mistake!

Since the recovery I have traded in and out, slowly rebuilding a core holding. That stands at 60 k now with the traders sold near the 106 p top (I had another 20 k in @105.5 p that did not get matched). I expected the return to the 100 p level.

Last few days show it will likely return to the lower trading bound. Take your pick as to where that is given the 6 month chart. It could be here, 90 p or down to the mid-80s.

That is all in the absence of any RNSable news. I think we are due a couple of decisions in the next 1-6 weeks.

[a1ord53] 30/6/2020 14:00

Paul, you sold your core position @60p ?
Is this bottom or range bottom around 93p for now ?
Please, explain.

Thx in advance.

[polaris] 30/6/2020 12:47

SP has done nothing unexpected given the previous history.

Buyback started and the price fell, people blamed the company for buyback. Price then rose strongly, to the extent that it went outside the parameters for the buyback and people blamed the buyback (even though that isn't possible - you can't pump the share price as the conditions clearly state in how the brokers appointed can make a buyback transaction). Now the share price is falling again, having hit the 106 p resistance and people are blaming the company for buyback. You can't make it up.

VEC is being actively traded by a group, within pretty well-defined bounds. I trimmed my holding near the 106 p level exactly for this reason. I'll look to buy them back at the bottom of the channel. Core holding and trading holding.

Just to add some context, the current buyback has bought and cancelled a little over 2.8 M shares at 94.71 p average price. What is the price today?