Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[a1ord53] 13/5/2020 17:29

Polaris, I have appeal document of GSK -its 64 pages - where I can email it for your review if you wish.
I can also get Vecturas answer on this appeal document.
Please, let me know.
Or go to pacer and pay 3-6 $ and download these docs. Case 20-1054 at US court of appeal federal circuits.
Thanks in advance.

[polaris] 13/5/2020 16:55

I think GSK just want a ruling on a cap to the royalty paid cf. the original ruling of 3 % on all US related sales. The original agreement was capped at £15 M per annum i think with similar royalty rate. I expect GSK want it to be lower than this and/or with a lower royalty rate.

However, after all this time and the multi-billion dollar total US sales and the obstructive stance taken by GSK, I just don't see it working out for them and they run the risk of getting lumbered with the legal costs for wasting court time.

[pooroldboy55] 13/5/2020 13:36

Could the delay possibly be due to GSK/VEC coming to an out of court settlement as you would have thought GSK would have been more than prepared.
just an idea. (bored)

[best1467] 12/5/2020 17:55

Should we look on that as a positive or just GSK not really taking it serious and not even done the necessary after all it’s small change to them which is a positive from Vectura

[fhmktg] 12/5/2020 16:17

The Appeal court has allowed GSK extra time to submit their final paper arguments in their appeal against the lower court's finding, which were in favour of Vectura.Vectura have agreed to this.End of the month before the court will deal with the appeal.

[pooroldboy55] 12/5/2020 16:04

Re news from US court haven't a clue what any of that means if someone can explain it much appreciated. Perhaps you Paul remember I'm old and a bit thick so the wife tells me.
A
Edit
Looks like we are heading back into the 250

[fhmktg] 12/5/2020 11:48

Ventura playing 'nice guy' to keep the Court sweet!

[fhmktg] 07/5/2020 16:28

Polaris,IMHO it will take a pretty convincing argument for the appellate court to overturn the Chancery Judge in Delaware.He would have to be found to have made a serious error of interpretation of the law applying in that State, which has a well proven track record in judgements in Patent cases.Hear's hoping for a clear and positive ruling ASAP then Vectura can crack on with Ellipta generics.

[polaris] 07/5/2020 16:17

12-month on receipted sales, so it'll be judged Qly.

[frazboy] 07/5/2020 16:08

Polaris - is it a 12 month rolling period or a calendar (financial) year for the milestone to be awarded, do you know?

[polaris] 07/5/2020 16:06

Agree re PCRX - the pending EMA submission for approval becomes ever more important for the timing of the $32 M milestone. I think that earliest approval date is due sometime in late 2020, given a 12 month review timeline.

[frazboy] 07/5/2020 15:47

Pacira Q1



Haven’t read in detail but Covid-19 has pushed the milestone payment in to 2021 at the earliest, I think.

[polaris] 07/5/2020 15:34

Hi - submission is one thing but time for the judge to make an initial ruling based on the two briefs is something else. I doubt we will see much in the public domain for a few months.

The trades today were just a transfer from one fund to another. Might well be the price was agreed to allow certain capital gain/losses to be realised. I don't read anything more into it than that.

[westofengland] 07/5/2020 14:06

I saw the volume; very exciting.

I have actually been using the quieter time to bring some of my Vectura holdings back to round numbers( following the 12 for 13 consolidation with the dividend last year). It really annoys me not to know how many shares I have and so prefer to have round numbers! I have achieved this by adding to two positions so pleased to see the price on the move. I have written to the Board asking them not to have consolidations if they make further dividend payments as its irritating. If anyone else feels similarly email [e-mail] and then it can go to the Board as points to consider at the AGM on 27th May.

There's no question we own shares in a good business. The challenge in today's market is that there are always sellers- Invesco owning 8% probably means they may sell a few here and there to meet redemptions.

Once we have some solid news the shares could well move into higher territory.

Meanwhile, thank you Polaris and others for keeping us up to speed on all the news.

Like a1ord53, wishing Polaris good fortune with his Golds as over the next two years this is going to be a position that could reward holders handsomely.

[a1ord53] 07/5/2020 11:55

Polaris, hope you being doing well with Indices and gold.
Vectura today volumes up on two 1.4 mil shares each trades - total 2.9 mil shares. They probably cleaned 86-87p level this morning and then traded these 2 crosses at 88p.
Any idea ?
Any news from appeal court ? The Vectura response were due on 20th April.
Thanks Polaris and all for your views and opinions.

[best1467] 04/5/2020 20:42

They must have seen something I believe we’ve just found out what they saw the cash pile available for enabling remuneration excess.
Slightly tongue in cheek comment but as I said it does seem extremely excessive I hope the earn it but have my doubts but for the next few years to be as bad as the last will be some achievement.

[diesel] 04/5/2020 10:24

Pdoc..yup I’m just waiting for evidence that our new ‘team’ will make a difference. They must have seen something attractive in Vec, was it unrealised business potential or did the cash pile seem tempting?
Jaded after 30+ years of investing, most, and I mean most companies exec teams remuneration packages are completely out of step with their business performance. Gripe over, stay safe.

[pdoc] 04/5/2020 09:36

Yes, not just you sceptical there Diesel. It looks as though the general market has decided it didn't like the buy back for the sole purpose of grabbing them to ingratiate the board and a few of their mates. As I said - they are perfectly happy for 75p - 90p all day long. With the increase in remuneration they hardly have an incentive to meet any LTIP vesting criteria. Seen it before but only on AIM.

[base7] 03/5/2020 13:08

SKP was a great acquisition for Vec big a lousy deal for those of us who acquired large holdings here following the acquisition & have seen a halving of our share price over a period when we hoped for positive share price performance .Not every dog has its day but my view remains that this dog will ,particularly now ,with a new CEO & senior management team ,no debt ,plenty of cash & much more to come ,some exciting new products to generate increased revenue & further some even more fantastic potential generic products & I am interested to see our new strategy evolve .I suspect the share buy back program will soon recommence & hopefully near term positive newsflow will result in a red rating towards 150p

[polaris] 03/5/2020 11:32

VEC had been profitable for the last 2 years, last 4 years if GSK hadn't reneged on their patent agreement in the US...at the operational level. The write-downs are down to the fact that SKP and VEC were both similar market caps in the mid £100's M and now the combined entity is around £500 M. That is a lot of accounting to go through the books. Most of that is down to the failure of the pre-merger VEC products to make it to market. There's been a whole raft of them and quite a few of the early stage ones disappeared over last 18 months. Without the SKP assets, VEC would have been unviable.

Best case scenario is that GSK lose and the appeal is seen as frivolous, to increase the damages. I'd doubt that extreme so just an uphold of original decision and so the maximum return is around $200 M by mid 2021. Patent runs out in mid 2021 and it may be that the litigation is only resolved around the same time. That's around £150 M. VEC have around £75 M in cash on the books and the PCRX milestone cash is worth £24 M at same exchange rate for GSK damages. Then add in the operations cash-flow. VEC price is well underpinned by cash.

Flutiform continues to grow revenues and the manufacturing revenue is key to base value of VEC. The royalties from the Japan sales isn't to be sniffed at either. Once you add in the royalties from the the main ex-VEC products: Ultibro/Utibron/Seebri then anything on top is clear profit for VEC, with its streamlined R&D strategy.

There are quite a few marketed products that add to possible profits: Forspiro Airbufo, Forspiro Airflusal, Breelib FOX nebuliser, Rayos and some legacy products.

Hopefully to be added this year: QVM149 (triple with Novartis) and VR315 (generic Advair).

Longer term: VR2081 (US generic Symbicort), VR354 (US generic Breo Ellipta), generic Trelegy and probably a third from the series depending on sales. VR730 (the generic pMDI inhaler). Nebulised therapy work (need an update here on the progress). Other depending on the CDMO progress. I am particularly interested to see how VEC now develop the Lyon manufacturing site towards contracted work.

But note how many of the original VEC developments have hit the buffers: VR475, VR647, VR506, VR465 and no doubt others I cant remember off the top of my head. It's not all positive...

[base7] 02/5/2020 18:38

2021 could well be a year of real profits,apart from from exceptional revenue from GSK & I hope our new CEO & senior management team prove to be a bit more adventurous than their predecessors & consider acquisions but only if they can be made at the right price & they are a good fit .One or two decent bolt on acquisitions could be transformational fir our share price ,particularly with view to our being very cash rich & expected to become much cash richer .I came to Vec via a decent holding in SK which was a multi bigger for me & the performance of Vec has been abysmal since then,although I remain confident that we will,one day ,exceed,200p,which will justify my additions at lower levels & thereby reducing my average further .I certainly welcome Polaris back as you are one of the most informed & well researched posters on these bulletin boards

[dodkins] 02/5/2020 15:04

Thanks again, Paul, for your insights. I had just been wondering about that. Another thing I am wondering about is when VEC will become profitable again? I know the balance sheet shows losses due to write downs recently but do we know when these write down will be over?

[polaris] 02/5/2020 12:04

Triple therapies are becoming the norm. Closest would be Trelegy from GSK, although it'll depend on final indication as to potential market size. I read somewhere that Novartis believes the triples have a blockbuster possibility. However, i think they are pursuing more than one. At 3 % royalty rate for formulation, it's only ever going to be a sub £5 M revenue stream IMO (say $200-250 M peak sales incl. conversion rate $:£).

Having written it off last year, i now think generic Advair has a chance of pulling in significant revenues for VEC. If Hikma could hit 30 % of the US market then you might expect around $100 M in sales in 2021, £10 M+ to VEC (incl. conversion rate for $:£)

I also noted that GSK reported strong growth in the main Ellipta series sales. Really puts the spotlight on the litigation in the US. Clarity on that $150-200 M of revenues will be key for the long term strategy of the new management team if acquisitions are on the table. If not, it'll be a nice special dividend for the holders.

From memory, Kyorin will report in the next 5-10 days as well as PCRX. That'll give some indication of the Japan Flutiform revenues (and plans) as well as progress towards the $32 M milestone from PCRX - i still expect that'll be dependent on the EU approval, which is under consideration if you look at the monthly EMA list.