Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[cockneytrader] 17/3/2020 18:36

Having a cash pile is critical in surviving a black swan. Too many companies paying huge dividends, look at oil, large pharma. L&G paying 9%. They live in fairytale land!

Now look at many Japanese companies, huge amounts of cash. They unfortunately had to learn the hard way.

With regard to some US companies, Apple seating on $250 billion, and Berkshire Hathaway on $120 billion.

[polaris] 17/3/2020 18:02

The good thing here is that VEC have a cash pile and no debt. In these uncertain times then that is a good base to work from. There seem to be so many companies out there that are a few weeks away from disaster.

[polaris] 17/3/2020 16:17

Just dribbled a few back in at 61.5-62 p. Gold seems to be perking up and so i can finally start to release some funds back to other sectors.

[base7] 17/3/2020 16:00

Unprecedented circumstances currently & our best bet of achieving 100p now is a takeover by a much larger company who want what we have & can see our longer term potential.3 weeks ago I would have held out for 150+ whereas I would be very grateful for 100p right now

[base7] 17/3/2020 16:00

Unprecedented circumstances currently & our best bet of achieving 100p now is a takeover by a much larger company who want what we have & can see our longer term potential.3 weeks ago I would have held out for 150+ whereas I would be very grateful for 100p right now

[best1467] 17/3/2020 13:13

But at least we have a guaranteed revenue stream and plenty of cash I’ve addded yesterday solely on valuation if it gets cheaper will be adding again and I don’t Even like the Compay

[polaris] 17/3/2020 12:24

I am not a legal expert and so cannot comment on what is in the GSK appeal. All we know is that the judge threw out a retrial so GSK are appealing the original decision.

For everything else, i'll make that decision based on what is left in my trading pot. That will depend on the length and severity of the lock downs and social distancing impact on revenues and business.

Put it this way, if the results were held in a normal trading situation i would expect share price to be around 100-105 p without including the GSK litigation. If that comes through then it's worth another 25 p.

The problem is that we are not in a normal trading situation. That makes it anyone's guess what market is willing to pay right now.

[a1ord53] 17/3/2020 11:21

Paul, Polaris do you know what is in GSK appeal ? Is it real retrial danger ?
What share price do you expect in good, bad and worse scenarios ?
You sold out, any strategy to reenter ?
Thanks a lot to you and to all for your views in advance.

[polaris] 17/3/2020 11:07

It's already been approved. It can start immediately after end of tranche 1. That will probably complete today ortomorrow if the volume reported in the buyback announcement this AM is anything to go by.

[gbcol] 17/3/2020 10:59

"As at 16 March 2020, GBP9.8m of the share buyback had been completed. The Board intends to undertake a further on-market buyback of GBP10m, to be announced in due course."

Only a day or two before current buyback is completed. They need to announce straight away IMO to take advantage of these share price levels. I'm a bit surprised they didn't announce with the results.

Am I right it assuming that this can start as soon as they announce (i.e. no further approval required)?

[diesel] 17/3/2020 10:31

Think the key to the future here is how the effective the new hires perform. We need to see some results from this strategy...

[polaris] 17/3/2020 07:38

Nothing exciting there. Short term value drivers remain as previously outlined. Covid no effect to date but that may change during 2020. You never quite know what the market will think.

EBITDA is around 7 p per share. Throw in the cash (£74 M) and the litigation value ($150-200 M). share price closed a little over 62 p, valuing company at £375 M, so a current enterprise value near £300 M.

[cockneytrader] 17/3/2020 07:20

Results as expected with more cash to be returned to shareholders in the future.

[polaris] 16/3/2020 16:08

Well I had to close positions opened last week to keep my miner, which I think has better rebound prospects in a 1-2 week window. It'll be odd for me not to be holding any here when the results are announced tomorrow. I'll still be up to read the details.

[insideryou] 16/3/2020 13:55

58p is a real steal Paul.??

[richman777114] 13/3/2020 20:27

think i get it now Polaris-just focus on enhanced (adjusted!) eps due to reduced share count and minimal impact of lost interest on cash spent on buyback

[polaris] 13/3/2020 18:34

That's the idea, 68 p before is the same as 68 p afterwards...except that the conversion took place at 82 p with a 12 for 13 and a cash return of 6 p. That is just a minor thing about comparing the total number of shares before v after if you reinvested the special dividend. You would have a larger %age of the overall issued share capital. However, had you kept the 6 p until today then you would have more shares than at the time of the conversion...as the share price is lower...

I look at it in terms of eps on the ongoing business. The share consolidation bumped that up by the conversion factor. Since then the news has been positive, enhancing future eps expectations. So 68 p today is not the 68 p of 2 years ago, it's even more of a steal!

[richman777114] 13/3/2020 18:17

boadiceamaybe-the issue is scrambling my limited brain cells!

[boadicea] 13/3/2020 17:30

richman777114 - I thought the point of the cosolidation was to account for the loss in equity value due to the dividend payout. So the share price now should be compared to that before both the dividend and the consolidation. I am sure someone will correct me if mistaken.

[diesel] 13/3/2020 14:59

I’m thinking that there may be a feeling out there that the target patient for Vecs products are particularly vulnerable right now, wouldn’t like to be suffering a respiratory condition in these times!

[base7] 13/3/2020 14:47

Results on Tuesday will either calm nerves ,or not !If all on track as expected ,& no reason for it not to be ,I would expect Directors/PDMRs to be buying at these levels

[richman777114] 13/3/2020 14:23

polaristhink i get it-co has less cash now due to divi and buybacks so like for like 68p now is equivalent to less than 63p pre consolidation?

[0815exitstrategy] 13/3/2020 14:14

With respect to timinig this looks likes sellers from the US?
and in general rallies are stalling since noon...

[richman777114] 13/3/2020 13:59

polaristrying to get my head round that but not succeeding!

[a1ord53] 13/3/2020 13:57

Polaris, may be fall related to unknown for us bad news ?
Strange that this happening during buy back .