Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[jimboyce] 13/1/2020 13:55

Naturally the update is not going to be too optimistic in a buyback situation. LTA's are getting better value if the share price is held lower until some concrete news on full year results and GSK case etc.

[frazboy] 13/1/2020 13:14

Andrew - certainly no need for a mark up on the news, as limited new information. However, a few bits and pieces:

i) Earnings slightly above as best mentions
ii) Flutiform product supply revenues are expected to be flat this year although in market volumes will rise slightly - I think we had some stock building in 2019.
iii) Better than (I) expected payments for VR315 (Generic Advair) - those will add to the bottom line
iv) Notably, nothing new on the product launched v early H2 2019 (the name of which I've forgotten). EDIT: VR632
v) Notably, nothing new on the company's new business model. Watch this space.

[pooroldboy55] 13/1/2020 12:46

Nothing new all might and could be's after reading again very disappointing but hay ho normal for VEC.

[best1467] 13/1/2020 12:41

That at least inline Quote is Odd if they are going to be ahead of guidance why not just say surely they should Know at this Juncture

[fhmktg] 13/1/2020 08:57

Normally an appeal will be if the lower court has erred on a point of law or precedent, rather than a complete re-hearing.Delaware law is based on English procedures which is why so many commercial cases are heard there.Let's hope for a swift resolution.

[frazboy] 13/1/2020 08:47

Typo? No. Brief due on the 20/01/20 but the result of the appeal is expected about 12 months later. Unless of course the judge kicks it out at the brief.

[cockneytrader] 13/1/2020 08:42

Let's see how long it takes them to update the RNS.

[cockneytrader] 13/1/2020 08:35

Typo? Yes. Brief due on 24/01/20.

[pooroldboy55] 13/1/2020 08:28

Not much to get excited about 2021 looks about right to me , expecting a pull back to low 90s high 80s .

[ih_116147] 13/1/2020 08:26

The most underpriced and attractive british biotech company with MASSIVE upside potential .Still think this sleeping giant has 10+ bagger upside potential and 2020 could be the year for DNL with all the approvals and partnerships expected during the year .GL



Diurnal (DNL)
Market Cap £24 M
Price: 29p


DCF valuation of 202p per share


Investment summary:Alkindi, a cortisol replacement therapy designed for children under 18 years of age, is DNL’s first product on the market. It is expected to be followed by Chronocort for adults – a larger market – which now has a clear pathway for regulatory approval in both Europe and the US. Despite this, the share price is still languishing well below valuations determined by peer group and DCF (202p) analyses

Presentation
hxxps://www.diurnal.co.uk/media/36783/full-year-results-presentationyear-ended-30-june-2019-pp-v2.pdf


Upcoming Catalysts:

US-NDA acceptance for Alkindi in Februry 2020

MAA-Acceptance for Chronocort in February/March 2020

Alkindi approval in Israel expected in 1Q 2020

Alkindi approval in Australien expected in 2Q 2020

US-Partnership for Alkindi & Chronocort expected in 1H 2020

Alkindi & Chronocort Partnership for Asia für Japan und China

US-Approval for Alkindi expected in 4Q 2020

EU Approval for Chronocort expected in 4Q/1Q 2020/21


$88m market opportunity (Europe and US) for Paediatric AI (inc CAH)
$351m market opportunity (Europe and US) for Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia
$2,767m market opportunity (Europe and US) for Adrenal Insufficiency



Ceo bought another 25k shares at 30p
hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/news/director-dealings-rnsLSE20191216114654_14350421

[fhmktg] 13/1/2020 08:16

Q1 2021 for the appeal result?Is that a typo?

[cottonpickers] 13/1/2020 07:53

Looks like you have your wish

[base7] 10/1/2020 20:28

Great to have ended the week so let's hope a positive trading update next week will result in the maintenance of positive momentum

[boadicea] 10/1/2020 11:55

I assume they would have had further bids on the book (up to ~98p) which failed to attract a seller. (Note that their bids on the book execute as sells in advfn terms.)
Do we know if there is a cap on the price, or perhaps the price/quantity they will bid up to other than the allocated total? Clearly, it would not be sensible for the buy-back to push the price to an unsustainable level.

[popper joe] 10/1/2020 09:15

Interesting that yesterday's rise up to £1 involved very little support from the share buy-back. Only 8359 shares bought back yesterday. Good to see other buying pressure moving the price up.

[boadicea] 10/1/2020 08:21

Both bid and offer breached the 100p threshhold at 8:17 this morning.
A psychological landmark of sorts.

[polaris] 09/1/2020 15:24

You need to drill down a bit with PCRX. The Q4 sales of Exparel were $116.9 M and FY $407.9 M. Still a way to go before multiple Qs above $125 M to get to the $500 M in rolling sales, necessary for milestone. It is likely to be in FY2021 but might be pushing it for January. I’d say more like end Q3 2021 on reported sales.

[best1467] 09/1/2020 14:43

Pacria reporting $421 revenue last quater growth year on year of 25% So as predicted $32million milestone January 2021

[polaris] 09/1/2020 11:19

There have already been a few trades at 100 p today. I am also intrigued to know who else has been hoovering up the shares on the way up from the 82 p low of the current buyback period?

I know that i have somewhat banged the drum over the last 12 months on the HBM divestment here distorting the price but we might just be entering unknown territory. If HBM are finally out then we can head back to fair value without the seemingly endless selling pressure.

The quesiton is: what is fair value?

I did a back of the envelope calculation in Q4 2019 and came up with a share price of 88-105 p without the impact of the GSK cash. The wide range reflected uncertainties to me in the near and mid-term project values, particularly Ellipta and likely sales growth of QVM149 (if and when approved in 2020) and the Forspiro Airbufo (EU Symbicort analogue launched in late 2019). I'd say those remain until there is a full trading update. I don't expect that level of detail until the annual results are released.

The value of the GSK litigation is around $110 M, at full awarded value up to May 2019. Sales of Ellipta products in the US are around £1 Bn (let's see progress when GSK announce FY results), although it is not 100 % clear whether all sales are covered by the IP. There is VEC IP in most of the range but i'm not sure about the full coverage of the 991 patent except that it covers the bulk of sales. That implies another $22 M in unpaid royalties to end 2019 and a possible $55-60 M in further royalites up to expiry of the 991 patent in June 2021. There is also interest on the unpaid damages and royalties at T-bill rates from the original judgement. Alltold that has brings the total to something close to a potential £200 M (£150 M). What discount to apply to this?

Best case scenario for me with information in public domain is a share price of 105 p + up to 20 p for the GSK litigation (discount applied on full value). Worst case scenario is the 88-90 p level assuming low project values and overturn of the GSK judgement. It is a real finger in the air calculation at this point in time and must be taken with a bag of salt! ;-)

Looking forward to some nice positive news during 2020 to build on the recent revival. It's been a long time in coming but i hope that my patience in the low 70s will finally pay off.

regards,

Paul

[jimboyce] 09/1/2020 10:56

I guess that limit orders will kick in when £1 is reached.

[alexchry] 09/1/2020 10:26

base7-I am one of those and remain hopeful but still a long way to go. However, I remember SKP being less than 30p so cannot complain about the current VEC share price

[base7] 09/1/2020 10:14

Hopefully the impending year end update together with our new CEO sharing his future vision for Vec will help maintain our share price momentum & vindicate the decision for those of us who found VEC via SKP & have stayed with it.

[chrisdgb] 09/1/2020 09:28

Yep, would have thought so, big technical breakout developing.........

[base7] 08/1/2020 23:45

Can we break 100p tomorrow?