Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[fhmktg] 28/2/2020 12:21

Resubmission of the Advair file went in in November.As this was an additional trial to meet a specific issue from the original, could we expect an expedited decision from the fda?The company line is an expectation of H2.

[jimboyce] 28/2/2020 12:19

Accelerate the buy back at these prices is our buying opportunity.

[diesel] 28/2/2020 12:15

At some point this, together with the market as a whole will be oversold, and pharmaceuticals are generally a safe haven in troubled times, may add some more or wait till the results still pondering the bigger picture, arghh!

[insideryou] 28/2/2020 11:40

Buying opportunities?

[boadicea] 27/2/2020 17:37

Perhaps on-line education is the place to be.

[base7] 27/2/2020 17:10

Sales of Flutiform in Japan May have increased in the first quarter with view to Coronavirus concerns as asthma sufferers are at a higher risk & closing all schools until end of the school year is a sign as to how seriously the Japanese Govt are taking it

[andrew97] 27/2/2020 16:41

i see hik seem reasonably confident of launching generic advair in h2

[polaris] 27/2/2020 09:57

Sure the labs have some surgical face masks...

[base7] 27/2/2020 07:45

I wonder if we have anything in the bottom draw of our extensive R&D over the years which could help combat Coronavirus -apart from helping The World it would also help our share price ?

[polaris] 26/2/2020 18:37

didn't see the wood for the trees - i'd usually have it in my diary. Thanks GreenC, you are right.

[greenc] 26/2/2020 18:24

In 13th Jan trading Update, the company said the Preliminary Results would be on 17 March.

[polaris] 26/2/2020 16:29

C'mon VEC, tell us the date of the results. I need to plan how to deal with my Mar20 Qly SBs, which have a last trading day of the 17th March, which may end up being FY2019 results date.

Markets have been all over the place the last few days. I thought i'd done well with my Tesla short, bagging over $30. 36 hours later and i would have netted another $60 per share to the short side. So far, i've been quite insulated from the market malaise, except in AAZ, which i find bizarre given pog and the fact that they make money hand over fist.

Looking for bargains...

[diesel] 26/2/2020 12:29

Not much in cheer on the markets! but at least the buybacks will be better value...

[base7] 21/2/2020 18:06

Great news Polaris -we need a larger holding Institutional hands & ideally a diverse spread of investors with relatively small holdings,which can quietly be increased without causing a fuss & can also be quietly reduced without causing a major overhang,as has been the case with HBM.

[polaris] 21/2/2020 09:56

a1ord53 - thanks for that link. It is up to date and confirms HBM out and the identities of the newer funds/institutions. Aberforth have increased from 4.2 % to over 5 % in February. Looks like our shareholder mix is changing. top 20 institutions now hold a little over 41.5 % of the total shares, as of 31/01/2020.

[a1ord53] 21/2/2020 09:25

MAJOR SH END OF JANUARY 2020:
Click on Institutions or funds

[bioking] 20/2/2020 15:20

DNL about to explode , Institutional investor added 1 million shares this week . LOTS of BIG NEWS around the corner =10+ BAGGER GEM RALLLYYYYYYYYYYYY

Diurnal (DNL)
Market Cap £27 M
Price: 31p



Upcoming Catalysts:

MAA-Acceptance for Chronocort in February/March 2020

Alkindi approval in Israel expected in 2Q 2020

Alkindi approval in Australien expected in 2Q 2020

US-Partnership for Alkindi & Chronocort expected in 1H 2020

Alkindi & Chronocort Partnership for Asia für Japan und China

US-Approval for Alkindi expected in 4Q 2020

EU Approval for Chronocort expected in 4Q/1Q 2020/21


Investment summary:Alkindi, a cortisol replacement therapy designed for children under 18 years of age, is DNL’s first product on the market. It is expected to be followed by Chronocort for adults – a larger market – which now has a clear pathway for regulatory approval in both Europe and the US. Despite this, the share price is still languishing well below valuations determined by peer group and DCF (202p) analyses

[best1467] 20/2/2020 13:25

4th quaterExpiral sales $119 growing at 20% so this time next year Ching ching

[base7] 20/2/2020 13:10

Interims in 3 weeks or so will give us an idea as to how our FY is going & hopefully our new CEO will outline his strategy which will also hopefully be well received .Unless he intends making acquisitions for cash (he hopefully thinks our paper too cheap ) I would expect the buy backs to continue with view to cash generation ,proceeds from Glaxo & our final $32mill milestone from Pacira (hopefully early next year )
Vec has been an awful under achiever since my SKP shares were acquired & I am hoping that this is the year that our fortunes change

[diesel] 20/2/2020 11:19

Really? News flow is ways slow in this sector, nature of the business, rising support levels for the last year with another push towards two year highs in the near future, happy to hold through this period of optimism. , good summary Paul...

[cambourne] 20/2/2020 10:46

Really is the most boring share.. .

[polaris] 20/2/2020 10:14

Where one large fund sells, another will buy. Someone has been picking up the shares over the last 12-18 months and there have not been all that many large holder RNS.

The buyback average price hit 90 p on the declaration this morning. Still another £2.5 M to spend on first tranche and 8.35 M shares bought and cancelled versus less than 330 k added from options.

The share price is beginning to stabilise as a result of the volume generated by the buyback. A second tranche...and maybe a third and fourth beyond that if company want to continue to return cash indirectly to investors...will further consolidate the chart.

Where do we stand now chartwise? There is a support around 90 p and a rising trend that should hit 90 p around the results release date, going back to March 2019. There is a resistance around the 100 p level. However, there is not a lot to go on as the share price has been rather spiky in last 2 years.

With a little over 607 M shares then enterprise value is around £485 M after taking into account cash balance. The GSK litigation still sits on a little over $107 M (at May 2019 in terms of interest levied and backdated royalties attributed) that i'm not sure is really reflected in current share price

Looking at approvals, the FDA response submission for VR315 will have a 6-month or so turn-around. Expect something around end H1 2020. QVM149 EMA submission will take around a year, again implying news in middle of year, maybe Q3. If both are approved, then launches will occur before end CY2020. Milestones as we know are up to $16 M on approval with royalties in the mid teens for VR315 and around 3 % for QVM149.

On the triple therapy (QVM149 and Trelegy) front, AZN had their version rejected by the FDA recently. It remains under discussion with the EMA, according to their monthly listing of products submitted. It's been there over a year now, so something must appear in the next few months. That product is likely to be approved before QVM149 in the EU, IMO, although not 100 % sure now that FDA have given a setback. Who knows what EMA will make of the submission (it was approved in Japan as added information)?

The whole respiratory market is in quite a state of flux right now, with new therapies coming in and the Tier I pharmas desperately trying to move people over before generics enter the market and destroy their revenue streams. Triples (ICS/LABA/LAMA) seem the way forward in the mid term, so a generic of Trelegy Ellipta is more important than generic Relvar/Breo, even though the latter has higher worldwide sales right now. You can also see that in the revenue stresses in the US for the Ellipta sales cf. EU and RoW. Generics in the dual therapy area are impacting sales and margins.

time for a coffee...

[fhmktg] 20/2/2020 09:31

Welcome Amberforth in for 5%.