Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[polaris] 13/3/2020 13:51

plus the cash though...worth more than current difference

[richman777114] 13/3/2020 13:46

actually now 63p in pre consolidation terms

[richman777114] 13/3/2020 13:42

testing the 52 weeks low

[polaris] 13/3/2020 11:58

Not really. VEC survived well in the initial stages of the market falls. It then plunged off a cliff. The markets are now rising but VEC still in the doldrums. VEC is a trailing indicator and so, if you believe the markets will now rise, is a buy.

I've picked up a few this morning from those sold yesterday. Got to put that profit from the overnight trade somewhere.

edit
And a few more. US futures now limit up...this could be a wild day.

[insideryou] 13/3/2020 11:52

Concerning when the market rallies like this yet vec still sliding.

[polaris] 13/3/2020 09:19

This shows the madness of current markets. I left a trade to fill at 20800 on the DOW last night. It triggered and was able to close when I woke up for almost 900 points. The top to bottom swing during night was 1500 points. The market isn’t even open, these are futures!

edit
US futures are now limit up and so i've 'given away' another 500+ points in the space of 4 hours! Utter madness.

[cockneytrader] 13/3/2020 08:10

I am out for the time being. Good company, but I am afraid it has been the baby out with the bath water. When the lock down comes, I believe there will be further panic. Stay safe.

[polaris] 12/3/2020 18:48

Your guess is as good as mine. The share price has been hit for over 20 % this week.

Can it go lower? Yes.

Will it go lower? depends on the general market.

There has been no bad news for VEC but the fall is there all the same. The results next week will obviously have the headline loss due to write-offs. In the past, this has caused an initial fall as people can't understand the actual figures! Who knows where we will be by EoB Tuesday next week?

Will i buy back in? Probably not pre-results if i can use the cash to better effect elsewhere.

I've gone full capital preservation mode (otherwise known as close) on everything except my one gold miner. I'm not adding any more there but i am now effectively holding the position fully paid up, rather than a typical SB.

I'm willing to wait with VEC, as most of the price sensitive news will be H2. There may yet be a sale of the century moment here. The company is in a very different state than Feb 2018 yet we now have the same share price Even this means nothing if the market is in panic mode. Intraday lows in 2018 are in the 67-68 region. After that it's 60 and 52.5, all of which are crazy from the ongoing business point of view, but not impossible to see again.

[a1ord53] 12/3/2020 18:04

Paul, I ve been stoped out due to the margin today at 75 p. What do you think ? Should I reenter at this level or stay on sidelines .
What we do expect on Tuesday results day ?
Could we get some bad news ? How it could affect share price ?
Advair rejected ? GSK wins appeal and retrial ? GSK stops remaining royalties ?
What else ....?
Please, share your view and analysis .
Thanks a lot.
THANKS PAUL !!!

[polaris] 12/3/2020 16:54

I'm probably no better than breakeven on VEC given the Qly costs over last 18 months. All of the remaining profit given back in closing the positions today to crystallise the losses and protect margin. Let's call this a rest on the sidelines while I re-evaluate the market as a whole. I'm certainly not out longer term but need the capital for short term opportunties that a volatile market offers.

[insideryou] 12/3/2020 16:50

405000 shares. That is quite a dump. Or company buying them back?

[insideryou] 12/3/2020 16:47

Did u make a profit Paul at least.

[polaris] 12/3/2020 16:42

There is something I didn't think we would see again - 70 p UT crossing trade.

I sold out of what I had left over last 2 days, as there is little point fighting a spooked market, whatever the logical evidence for a floor.

I'll now sit on the sidelines until I feel markets have some sanity restored. I doubt that'll be before the results next week, although I'll be looking for very short term trading opportunities with the released cash.

[polaris] 12/3/2020 15:12

Until some stability returns to the market i am out. I don't mind missing out on 5-10 % if it means i sleep at night. I've gone full-on capital preservation mode.

[base7] 12/3/2020 14:16

I am around 75% liquid but hardly delighted at the performance of the 25% -but still considering buying more ahead of results -for all the reasons neatly summarised by Polaris earlier .
Crazy times ,which most of us have experienced before but doesn’t make it any better

[diesel] 12/3/2020 14:13

In any normal world it would look like we are close to an often visited support level, but theses ain’t normal times, that said I’ve freed up some cash and have already made a small purchase.

[best1467] 12/3/2020 12:17

I know we ar in unprecedented times but a hold a number of biotech stocks some in asthma and have actually gone up in the last fortnight .I always though HBM selling there stake had very little to do with the stock performance over last few years and this is proof.But I’m getting tempted to buy for a quick 10% I sure it will rebound quite quickly

[best1467] 12/3/2020 12:17

I know we ar in unprecedented times but a hold a number of biotech stocks some in asthma and have actually gone up in the last fortnight .I always though HBM selling there stake had very little to do with the stock performance over last few years and this is proof.But I’m getting tempted to buy for a quick 10% I sure it will rebound quite quickly

[polaris] 12/3/2020 11:39

EV down to £385 M after cash at yearend minus further buyback costs.

In the offing for 2020-2021 in potential cash contributions:
$200 M from GSK (royalties to mid-21 on Ellipta - court case)
$32 M from PCRX for $500 M annualised Exparel sales (likely by mid-21 especially if PCRX get EU approval in late 2020 from submission)
$11 M from VR315 if approved (decision expected early H2 2020)
$5 M from QVM149 if approved (decision expected in H2 2020)

At current exchange rates that is nigh on £190 M in upfront cash...up to you how much you want to discount from this for non-approval or loss of case possibilities.

Then you have mid-teens royalties for VR315 on sales and around 3 % from formualtion IP in QVM149. That in addition to the recently launched Airbufo Forspiro (Symbicort analogue in EU).

I railed last year that the 70 p level was madness. That was before any result on the GSK litigation. Here we are, 12 months later, at a similar share price It's utter market madness. The results next week will be key to assessing forward valuation.

My tin hat is on for now and i am in capital preservation mode. Today, i moved into carrying a loss on total capital committed, on paper at least...didn't think i would see that level again.

[polaris] 12/3/2020 11:13

a1ord53 - this forms part of the action by VEC against GSK. In the original trial the judge ruled that the patent infringement did not constitute wilful for enhanced damages. The appeal, depending on which grounds by GSK, could lead to a new judge upholding the original ruling and hitting GSK for damage to reputation costs, which were rejected in the original ruling. Even if the judge caps the royalties, then VEC can counter-claim for damages to reputation/SP caused by the 4 year absence of min £15 M (the cap level) to the FY16-19 EPS, which is multifold that on the share price However, it would have to be proven in court that GSK acted wilfully to steal the IP and damage VEC. (raises eyebrow)Of course, GSK have never done this sort of thing in the past...(/raises eyebrow)

edit
the raise eyebrow was originally in html markup tags but they get taken out when posted so i had to repost with parentheses...LOL

[dp1umb] 12/3/2020 11:10

Pro’s increased inhaler sales
Con’s 25% of patients with COPD keel over!

[diesel] 12/3/2020 10:34

Or.....’selling more inhalers’!
Can’t see any pro’s or con’s with business during this time, supply chains may get disrupted but that’s only marginal....this is oversold but this may not yet be the bottom, anyone’s guess, as we are seeing....

[polaris] 12/3/2020 10:05

Novartis and Glaxo watching price action very closely

LOL. Any actual evidence of this throw away statement qnq?

[qnq] 12/3/2020 10:03

strange thaf market selling vectura, are these short sellers?
vectura got cash, in goid position and it should be selling more inhalers now than ever!
buyback is still on. Novartis and Glaxo watching price action very closely.