Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 23/11/2019 10:10

As a reminder:



Are we to expect a judge to listen to GSK’s appeal on the 16th December?

[polaris] 23/11/2019 09:54

Over a barrel would be demanding a huge royalty rate hike as there is no alternative for GSk to use. VEC are certainly not doing this. Witholding the royalty has been detrimental to VEC as a business, causing real economic harm to it and its shareholders. That will be taken into account in the appeal - i'd be bringing that up if i were legal councel for VEC, and may lead to a larger fine for GSK for materially influencing another company out of spite..the wilful part. While first judge said on balance no further damages this action from GSK may be frivolous in eyes of law. That would be bad...for them.

[taffy100] 23/11/2019 09:46

Vectura to present latest science at Drug Delivery to the Lungs (DDL) 2019

[polaris] 23/11/2019 09:39

That’s why I can’t see any other result than 3%, which is a standard royalty for such formulation use. VEC used another agreement to show this - I think one with Novartis/Sandoz. It was the same with Paxil CR with GSK, Exparel with Pacira etc. The only question for me is whether the royalty should be capped? If so, at what level? As the product is so successful then I think VEC have a right to their fair share, without which GSK would have zero sales. Over to the judge...

[base7] 23/11/2019 08:47

Says it all -they pay our modest royalty to enable them to generate sales of $3bill & generate how much in profits ?$600mill,$1.2bill,$1.8bill ??
Greedy bustards !

[cockneytrader] 23/11/2019 00:57

So GSK want to pay 0.0187%! And not 3%.

[cockneytrader] 23/11/2019 00:52

The most interesting part of the trial was the following:

Q. [Plaintiff]. You think a three-percent royalty rate is holding GSK over a barrel? A. [Kerr]. Absolutely, it is, because --
Q. For a formulation that they need to use, and they don't have an alternative for? A. Absolutely, it is holding them over a barrel --
Q. For --
A. -- because it comes to a $90 million -- it implies that the value ofthe '991 patent
is $90 million during the damages period --
Q. Okay.
A. -- when the entire value of 400 patents was no more than 30 million --
Q. So --
A. -- and in the U.S. only 20 million.
Q. But Dr. --
A. You have to get down to one patent.
Q. So Dr. Kerr, if GSK -- GSK has sold $3 billion in infringing sales so far; right?
A. I don't know the number off the top of my head.
Q. And you saw Ms. Schenk put a number on the screen. It was $3 billion; right?
A. I don't recall that, but I'll take your word for it.
Q. If they can't use the patented invention, they might not be able to make any of those sales; right?
A. Right. That's why they would have a hypothetical negotiation, and they would enter into a business deal to get the right to it and why they did it in 2010.
Q. And so it's your testimony that a three-percent royalty would be putting GSK over a barrel when they had $3 billion worth of infringing product at stake?
A. Yes. They would have been -- it's the equivalent of holding them hostage. You can't sell and make money unless you get our patent. That's not the -- what the hypothetical negotiation is supposed to be. It's supposed to be a business deal.
. . . Q. So Dr. Kerr, what we did is we've looked at the total payments that would be made under your alternative and we divided them by the license sales, and we came up with an effective royalty rate of0.0187 percent of sales. Do you see that?
A. I see your calculation.

[cockneytrader] 23/11/2019 00:28

New information cannot be used in an appeal. New information would require a retrial which has already been rejected.

[davr0s] 22/11/2019 20:17

Having dealt with legal teams in big cos they will have massive egos so until someone else puts the brakes on this (eg the judge or the CEO if they start to look very foolish) they will keep going. But I'd rather be on the VEC side of the argument atm

[polaris] 22/11/2019 20:00

depends on whether GSK go the distance. The first hearing on appeal will be in December but the full process could take until end of next year. If the judge believes that GSK have no grounds for an appeal on the initial hearing then it could be a very short timescale. The onus is on GSK to try to overturn the judgement with new information. It'll have to be good and i just don't see what they could have that they haven't already used. The only course i see that they might stand a chance is to say the damages are overblown and that there should be a cap on the annual royalties until patent expiry in June 2021. This may be seen as a delaying tactic by a judge and lead to levying of further damages for wasting the court's time. TBH. i just don't see what GSK can achieve with the appeal, only delay while they decide whether the Ellipta generic development is worth a takeout to protect revenues...IMO.

[richman777114] 22/11/2019 18:42

polaris,what's your take on the timeframe for the GSK appeal process?regards,

[frazboy] 22/11/2019 16:32

For long term holders the buy back is working very well. More and more stock being bought back at lower prices. Let’s see what week 5 of the buyback brings

[best1467] 21/11/2019 15:37

I do see prospects going forward but I keep seeing the same prospects and they don’t get any closer.
The only news of any significance as been the Elipta generics that was around 12 months ago give or take a month and absolutely nothing since

[richman777114] 20/11/2019 14:14

well let's say mid January

[richman777114] 20/11/2019 14:12

polaris,at the same rate of selling as per the last few months HBM could be out by 31st Decembercombine the cessation of selling with the buyback and positive newsflow (hopefully starting with a settlement with GSK) and the share price only goes one way-but you know that alreadyall IMHO of courseregards,

[popper joe] 20/11/2019 10:16

The chart looks encouraging until you consider the effect of the share consolidation. We are actually back where we were in August, albeit, we have had the dividend.

[polaris] 20/11/2019 09:55

HBM have been constantly selling since Q2 2018 and have sold around 45M since then (not taking into account the effect of the consolidation):



This holding announcement was, i think, the last increase in holding statement to yield 61,061,686 shares, around 9.2%.

The last announcement, post consolidation:



This shows 16,228,860 at the end of October 2019 - to less than 3% holding.

Pretty sure HBM are still selling, looking at the spiky volume stats, and this type of volume will impact a SP, whatever you may believe, on that timescale.

I continue to wonder why some people hold here if they see no prospects going forward. But what do i know?

regards,

Paul

[diesel] 20/11/2019 09:32

About right Best, but the chart is looking encouraging, slow progress with higher lows being the trend for the year.

[best1467] 20/11/2019 09:22

HBM is a Red Herring I don't believe we can put the performance down to them selling its lack of delivery from Vectura they have achieved very little for some considerable time now it's pathetic

[alexchry] 19/11/2019 08:15

Popper Joe-I just hope it is HBM selling the shares, the sooner they are off the shareholders register, the better.

[popper joe] 18/11/2019 16:45

Well so far, the share buy-back appears to be about as successful as the last one!

[frazboy] 13/11/2019 09:58

With you on that base7. If the management were as confident at the AGM as a previous poster inferred then I would also like to see the CFO dip his hand in too.

[base7] 13/11/2019 09:10

It will be interesting to see what changes in strategy our new CEO will introduce,once he has reviewed all aspects of our business, his first opportunity to announce his intentions being ,presumably, the trading update due early in January.
I also hope he invests some of his own cash in our company s shares -which may only be a gesture ahead of share awards etc, but i always prefer CEOs to have some of their own skin in the game.If he believes that we are undervalued & that his strategies could generate more value I would hope that he considers our recovery potential sufficient to tempt him to invest cash otherwise earning under 1%

[best1467] 08/11/2019 20:36

Depressive share performance is something your guaranteed with Vectura based on the last couple of years anyway

[a1ord53] 08/11/2019 16:55

Depressive share performance with buy back, new CEO , City bank Buy reiteration and HBM position reduction .
Looks like not only HBM selling