Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[alexchry] 08/11/2019 13:02

fhmktg-No, you have missed nothing, no resubmission yet, due by end 2019, which means approval, if given, will be over two years late.

[fhmktg] 08/11/2019 11:43

Whatever happened to the Advair generic resubmission?Have I missed something?

[best1467] 08/11/2019 07:16

It will be a close call but I feel we may just miss out on the $32 million in 2020 but it’s all but guaranteed for 2021 ,it’s a shame we still don’t get The 3% royalties

[polaris] 07/11/2019 13:08

edited

PCRX Q3 sales of $101.5 M for Exparel. I don't count the $0.3 M of the base product that is sold for animal use as it is not sold under name Exparel. This is the 1st Q with sales above $100 M. Compares with $82.2 M in comparable Q last year. FY projection remains at $400-410 M. Edging ever closer to the $500 M annual sales milestone for VEC. I think the timescale is now dependent on approval and launch of the product in the EU (submitted a few months back). There is also a study underway (enrollment complete) to expand US indication label to children aged 6 and over.

HY Flutiform (Japan) sales in at 6.7 Bn Yen and the FY forecast is raised to 14.1 Bn Yen from 14.0 Bn Yen. For comparative periods the sales growth of Flutiform is 5.4 Bn (2017), 6.1 Bn (2018) and 6.7 Bn Yen (2019) respectively. Pediatric indication submission is awaiting decision (submitted July 2019). So seem to be on for around £95 M in sales in Japan for VEC FY19 and over £100 M projected for VEC FY20.

[polaris] 06/11/2019 14:09

At the current buyback rate and price then the £10 M mandate will take 112 trading days to complete...about 22.5 weeks. It will also retire 11.23 M shares to give about 604 M post completion. We are finally seeing some stability in the SP, except around the auctions at open, midday and close. All of this is nice as far as i am concerned.

What we need now is some positive news... ;-)

[0815exitstrategy] 05/11/2019 16:58

90p seems to be at the moment our Bridge of Khazad-dum: "You shall not pass!" (Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring ;-)

[best1467] 03/11/2019 18:36

Alex they incurred most there investment in SKP after Fluitform failed to get FDA approval when the company was on its knees like many of us from the SKP days.
While I agree with some comments I’m still surprised they are offloading at such depressed levels which for me is the negative as they don’t see any major upside or possible takeover which I feel could happen

[dp1umb] 02/11/2019 15:23

081 well the share price is about 10% higher

[0815exitstrategy] 02/11/2019 15:03

DRIP share are now in my account. I am left with app. 1500 Shares less then before which would be "okay" if I did not had to pay tax on the special dividend (I am not in the UK). Thanks VEC, for nothing.
Lets hope their strategy will play out...

[jimboyce] 01/11/2019 14:13

I may be tempted to take a punt on HBM in that case.

[alexchry] 01/11/2019 12:00

Agree with polaris regarding HBM. When I last checked, their top ten holdings were in unlisted companies or listed companies with a potential blockbuster on the horizon just like SKP many years ago. They are looking for big returns, a doubling of the share price in the next two years will make me happy but I doubt it will be good enough for HBM.

[polaris] 01/11/2019 11:44

HBM are an early stage biotech funder in general. Yes, they hold some large positions in companies that have become successful. That is their modus operandi. However, to fund small biotechs they need to liquidate positions in other companies that no longer meet their long term returns strategy.

The 16M shares in VEC are worth about £15M and the most optimistic forecast is for a doubling of the share price in the next 12 months. An early stage pharma will need cash injections and be willing to part with large parts of the share capital to achieve this. £1m could get you 10+% of an unlisted company. Put that £15m to work in 15 different companies and hope that 1-2 make it to market. Each really successful one may reach a market cap of $250M and several may make it to $50M. If you are really lucky you hit something that becomes $1Bn+ (the unicorns). Do the sums and you see that the ROI for HBM by investing in early stage companies has a higher reward than staying in more mature companies such as VEC, with the added risk. You need size and a wide portfolio to absorb the risk.

A PI does not have access to this type of market but most of us would be pretty happy with a 100% return...a 3-400% return for those of us who margin trade. I'd be happy with 50% return! The market is full of entities that have different motivations than the average PI and work with timescales and funds that we can only dream of.

As an extreme example of what can happen. Take AAZ, albeit from a completely different sector. A large shareholder liquidated a position over several years causing the share price to fall as low as 3p. There was nothing wrong with the company, except that it was a small cap miner with a persistent seller on low volume. The share price has risen over last few years to well over 100p. However, the seller was distressed/forced and this distorted the market in the company in question.

Take HBM. Maybe they have a few small companies that they are really convinced will be future unicorns. Where do you realise the money? I would look at the portfolio and pick companies that have reasonable market cap, high enough daily volume to allow position to be liquidated on a reasonable timescale and relatively boring in terms of multi-bagging. HBM have been selling here for years now and that also distorts the long term share price as any positive news just allows more of the position to be liquidated. You might be happy to take anything up to a 50% discount on the price if you can then use that cash to return 10-fold+.

[best1467] 01/11/2019 11:04

You do have to ask why HBMare so determined to be out and I don't buy the doesn't fit there investing quiteriam they are after all very successfullbiotech investors as there results prove over a great number of years.

[polaris] 01/11/2019 10:43

My hope now is that once HBM are out any new news will be treated on its own merits. There has been a lot of selling into any positive news by HBM over the last 12+ months. I am of the opinion that the share price under-represents the current status of VEC and that it remains weighed down by past events that are immaterial to the company prospects going forward. I suppose time will tell if i am right or not.

[chrisdgb] 01/11/2019 09:55

Feel very comfortable with position here, nice to see the share buybacks and expect further upwards progression in the next year.............

[alexchry] 01/11/2019 09:46

Over the past few years HBM have unloaded many millions of shares hence putting a brake on the share price or even putting it into reverse but now their selling is not far off being balanced by VEC buying, they have around 16M to sell and VEC have around 11M to buy. Hopefully that will mean a steady rise in the share price particularly if the hoped for stream of good news arrives such as the GSK appeal and Advair generic, polaris has posted a fuller list of the good news to come.

[davr0s] 01/11/2019 08:37

Yeah totally - unless you are trying to trade intraday which isn't recommended on a share like this

[cottonpickers] 01/11/2019 08:28

You have to look at buy and sell prices not the ADVFN generated 'mid' price. It's also always a huge spread for the first hour or so every morning so the headline number is normally irrelevant. When the spread is narrow you can more accurately see the real price change

[0815exitstrategy] 01/11/2019 08:24

104 shares traded and nearly 5% down, unbelievable.....

[alexchry] 31/10/2019 22:07

polaris, could well be a lot sooner as they have sold around 10M in less than seven weeks.

[polaris] 31/10/2019 18:06

It's been a long old road with HBM. They still have over 16M shares but i think their divestment should be complete by FY2019 results next year (March/April). Another chapter that can finally close so we can move on!

[best1467] 31/10/2019 17:38

It’s certainly time to deliver that’s for sure

[alexchry] 31/10/2019 17:16

HBM overhang nearly gone, thank goodness.

[polaris] 31/10/2019 13:34

The share price has not really broken 90p in over 18 months, since the fall from 120 area. The blip in April 2018 was caused by a blatant ramping campaign by certain parts of the media about VEC being subject to a takeover. It was closely followed by the resignation of a board member and the trip back down to the low 70s.

It will take a bit of time for the share price to settle down now that the slow drip effect of the buyback comes into play. With the two mandates then VEC can buyback over 3% of the company. That should take away a lot of the short term volatility, giving a base for future developments to impact share price

We have a new CEO and a path forward. The GSK litigation now has a timetable to completion. New product launched (Airbufo Forspiro) in July and more expected in 2020 (QVM149 and maybe generic Advair product VR315). Kyorin and Pacira will announce next week and that will provide further clarity on potential milestone timing and Flutiform progress in certain markets. I look forward to the new CEO setting out his priorities for the next couple of years too.

New CEO, relatively new CFO and a move to a well-defined organisation with complementary strategy. Now it's about delivery.

[diesel] 31/10/2019 10:59

We like round numbers it bounced between 70-80 for quite a while 90 will be the next resistance/support level. We really should be in the 100's by now, that's where we were the last time the company had a share buyback programme.