Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[dontay] 05/10/2018 17:16

Getting in sync with the way this keeps getting walked up and down by the algo trader at around 9-10p a pop over a couple of weeks or so timescale... it's also turning into a reasonably good trading share to keep things ticking over :)

[best1467] 05/10/2018 14:31

This management talk a good game and have been doing for sometime if nothing is delivered of signicance by year end heads with have to roll.Im sure potential is there but the management seem unable to deliver and time is surely running out .As fellow posters have mentioned should of got out around merger time but hindsight is a great thing.

[a1ord53] 05/10/2018 12:27

Polaris, please explaing - what does it mean that major shareholders loaned their shares( see recent holdings reports) - for short sellers ? Why do they do it ? They letting short sellers to sell ! Do they want push Vec share price down ?... and short sellers do sell again and again - amd making money .

[diesel] 05/10/2018 12:25

Alex, being thinking and saying it for a while, you don't announce a strategy unless you are sure you can deliver on it, otherwise it is just aspirational. The market may well consider it was just an attempt to stem a falling valuation, they will need to pull something out of the hat soon or the CEO's position is very vulnerable.

[alexchry] 05/10/2018 11:50

a1ord53-no significant money earning announcements since the merger and no partnerships announced despite all the talk at the beginning of the year. Not sure how much blame attaches to the MD but I was not impressed with the management speak after the recent results. I am hoping that we get good news on stage 3 and at least one partnership before the end of the year otherwise I suspect it will be a bleak Christmas for VEC shareholders.

[chrisdgb] 05/10/2018 11:44

Great, the only IC tip that goes down........

[mirabeau] 04/10/2018 18:18

Tipped in the IC


Buy -
Untapped potential in Vectura’s pipeline
Vectura’s shares continue to be punished for a poor couple of years. Investors willing to look past historic mistakes could pick up a bargain.

subscription...

[rugby] 04/10/2018 16:36

lols and again today!!!

[rugby] 04/10/2018 13:52

Wow like the poster said above, another 2 back to back below bid in close auction end to the days (/tues/wens)
God only knows where this would be without the 2 institutions buyers recently???
So weak!

[dontay] 03/10/2018 15:40

I'm not really that surprised at the latest Peel Hunt view, they have scaled back their target ... and after the recent modest uptick I took advantage to re-adjust too.

[fhmktg] 02/10/2018 14:18

Invesco upping their holding and Norwegians in for a shout as well.Somebody has been doing the rounds!

[polaris] 28/9/2018 14:51

SP knocking on that downtrend once more. Can we finally break through and look to test the next resistance in the mid 80s?

[chrisdgb] 28/9/2018 08:52

Still fully expect to walk in one day and see a 150p takeover......nice to see some resilience.

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 16:18

Could be the one remaining shorter closing also.
0.60%

[polaris] 27/9/2018 16:09

Just looks like a couple of transfers today as all the major trades are paired in time and off order book, going through as O trades, which means they are matched buy/sell at an agreed price. Volumes do not need to add up exactly, as any difference would have been picked up by the broker. That means actual volume is around half of that reported on the buyside, IMO. I'll be happy if this is the trader/hedge algo exiting, but it is way too early to tell.

[dontay] 27/9/2018 16:07

Keep calm and think of the beach! A couple of occasional large-ish buys maybe nice to see but really isn't anything to get too excited about even though they inflate the more normal overall volumes by a tad! Let's see what the close auction brings.

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 15:58

3.9M Buys
300,000 Sells

2 trades totalling almost £2M

[justiceforthemany] 27/9/2018 14:57

Big buys and big volume folks. Something is going on.

[s1zematters] 26/9/2018 16:48

And again today, If vec could claim back all the 1/2p here and 1p there it has ended the day below bid in the close auction this year it would be trading at circa 100p.
Someone always floods the close auction with stock to ensure it ends this way. It has been virtually everyday since January.
It cant be a seller pe se as no RNS has come out on holdings, so it must be buy-sell hedgie programs working a moribund share for advantage.

[s1zematters] 25/9/2018 16:37

I would love to know the % of time vec has been undersold in the close auction against the closing bid price since January. It must be almost 40% of all trading days.
I have never seen a share end below bid in the close auction so many times.
It's a classic sign of weakness.

[popper joe] 21/9/2018 09:11

Have the bots lost control again or did they just overdo it last week?

[polaris] 20/9/2018 16:49

The previous strategy was a mix of high volume/low royalty products and a couple of internally developed products. The latter are very high risk/high return. Most come from the SKP side, where Flutiform and the injectibles division were the great hopes. SKP realised that they did not have the cash to be able to develop both. Each one was touted as a possible $Bn revenue generator. SKP sold off the injectible assets to someone who could fully develop them, with a deal to get royalties for anything launched...that is Pacira with Exparel (and a few minor others such as Depocyt).

Flutiform had a rough development track and was rejected by the FDA, even though it was approved in Europe and RoW. Had everything gone to the original plan then Flutiform would have been approved worldwide, been one of the first combi-therapies of the next generation to market, and likely been worth $300M+ p.a. in royalties and manufacturing. VEC (SKP) does well out of Flutiform, but it is far from what it was hyped (and hoped) to be. The development costs were large and it still needed to be partnered to companies with the respective sales forces (Mundipharma and Kyorin).

That is the price you pay to fully develop products in-house. SKP had Flutiform AND Exparel (then called depodur) but they did not have the cash, size and distribution network to make it work. They had to choose.

Roll on to about 18 months ago and the post merger VEC entity. There is Flutiform, which is steady but not a block-buster by a long stretch. Then there are the many smaller royalty type agreements on formulation and delivery. You might ask what prompted the VEC/SKP merger in the first place? I think that the current strategy was always the plan - merge the SKP and VEC IP libraries on delivery techs and then leverage them into high volume markets with mid single to low double-digit royalty streams. With the Lyon facility and the Flutiform manufacturing chain the merged entity also had the possibility to increase revenues by being part of the manufacturing chain for any new products. The CDMO model for that facility has a lot of potential for contract work.

They started work on developing generics of the major respiratory products well before merger. These are now beginning to come to market: yes Advair was knocked back by the FDA but generic Symbicort now has approval in the EU (US in development) and will launch over the coming months. Advair will come in 2020. VEC also has projects for Stiolto, Spiriva, and the Ellipta delivery platform. They will become the core of their portfolio going forward. Don't forget the other deals, such as QVM149 with Novartis (expected submissions in 2019) and VR465 with Ablynx.

They are also still experts in the delivery (inhaler side) and formulation. This covers some aspects of Flutiform, the deals with GSK on Ellipta (the VEC side under IP litigation) and the Seebri/Utibron/Ultibro deal with Novartis, Breelib with Bayer and Airflusal with Sandoz. I expect more developments on this side going forward.

The non-core delivery projects highlighted a few posts back will be partnered and VEC will take a lower royalty and milestone type deal going forward. That lowers the risk and also lowers the R&D costs. We also have quite a few products going off patent on the royalty side: Exparel, Advate, Xatral, soon Ellipta (with or without the litigation result) etc...

What i see, and i may be optimistic, is that VEC are becoming a leaner organisation in terms of R&D, focussing on what they know and partnering out the non-core developments to others with milestone and royalty based deals. The base revenue generators are there: Flutiform, Seebri/Ultibro/Utibron, Airflusal, generic Symbicort, Breelib...and they are all young products. Coming along are the generics for the top selling respiratory products in the US (and elsewhere) and the rabbit in the hat development of the open-inhale-close device (looking to get AB-rating for a generic device to deliver the Ellipta line - 5 products in the GSK portfolio).

Looking at all of this, and the side developments, VEC is in a very good place, has a cash pile to bolt on acquisitions that add value and to allow some R&D on new programmes, such as the nebulised therapies. The share price does not reflect this potential, IMO.

I don't even mind too much if GSK win the litigation as i think it aids VEC going forward with the device development. However, any finding for VEC will be a nice cash windfall and the potential to extend royalties from current products.

The past is the past. We cannot change it. We should not hold on to it. The now looks good to me and the potential going forward is tasty looking.

I've been adding a few here and there and now have about 170k and will continue to monitor share price and prospects, looking to increase my holding.

regards,

Paul