Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[broadgreen] 08/11/2018 08:35

$80m milestones potentially due to VEC dependent on sales.
$70m development cost contribution potentially due from VEC to Hikma dependent on profits.
Presumably these things in tandem make the prospect of high recurring revenues for VEC less certain, less visible, and that is what is key to a major re-rating.

[pooroldboy55] 08/11/2018 08:22

Yes a big IF that's the problem we are already dropping back .

[fhmktg] 08/11/2018 08:19

The Ellipta drug components and their formulation are all open to generic competition, I believe.It should 'simply' be a case of the VEC delivery system being at least equivalent....echoes of the Advair situation.If they learn from that and get the trials designed properly, things should move smoothly.Or am I being naive!

[diesel] 08/11/2018 08:15

If this comes off, products get through all regulatory hurdles, then the M cap will be several times present, def a buying op at these levels.

[fhmktg] 08/11/2018 08:12

Well we'll well!Strategic collaboration!The patent case outcome should be interesting, no wonder GSK are contesting it so fiercely!

[popper joe] 08/11/2018 08:08

Surely Prudential didn't have prior knowledge!

[boadicea] 08/11/2018 08:05

Not surprisingly perhaps, the market has gone straight into extended auction. Not much chance for the pi of geting a quick bite at a decent price.

[alexchry] 08/11/2018 07:31

best1467-if this RNS doesn't move the share price nothing will. It sounds like just the sort of agreement Polaris has been predicting.

[best1467] 07/11/2018 11:53

Aleexchry Yes I noticed that comment and had a similar thought they did not appear confident in a successful outcome hopefully not the case a strange remark but from this management not surprised.

[fhmktg] 07/11/2018 10:03

It is a high bar, but they would have data from the phase2 trials to encourage moving ahead to phase3.These cost a lot of dosh!Fingers crossed!

[alexchry] 07/11/2018 08:56

In the Q&A session after the half-year results, I'm pretty sure they said that they had set the bar very high. Hope this wasn't to soften us up for failure.

[polaris] 07/11/2018 08:52

I was also going to point out the tough metrics for the PH III study. If they meet on all then it would be highly significant given they aim to reduce dose by 50%. No doubt the market will misread the headline results however they come in.

[fhmktg] 07/11/2018 08:25

If you google VR475 you will see they are trying to get improved control of severe asthma attacks using a novel nebuliser.They are also looking at reducing the dose of budenoside from 1mg to 0.5mg.Data on the number and severity of attacks over a 12 month timescale.Pretty demanding, but they should be reasonably confident.How much benefit if any, will be the key to partnering.

[alexchry] 07/11/2018 07:36

fhmktg-yes, the Pru's stake may be a sign of confidence in VEC's future. A bit disappointing that the share price has gone down while they've been buying however it is good that someone is showing an interest in VEC.We should know the stage 3 results soon, much more significant than the stage 2 results earlier, I dread to think what will happen to the share price if it's bad news. There is a lot happening in the next few months, 70p may soon be a distant memory but will we be looking back at it from 40p or 140p?

[fhmktg] 07/11/2018 01:31

The Pru in for >5%..that's a sign of confidence.Now for some trial results and partnering deals please.

[polaris] 06/11/2018 22:07

RogerRail - yeh, you are right. The Y12.3Bn was the estimate for current year sales in the FY results on the 10th May.

[polaris] 05/11/2018 23:30

Hi best. No need to change anything. Millstone and milestone are close and easily mistaken.

The thing that made me smile here was that the milestone for $32M from PCRX to VEC can also be a millstone on the price. It’s the possible double meaning that gives the typo its power.

[best1467] 05/11/2018 13:18

Yes I think 2020 is a reasonable possibility as I said I do also believe from the statement that apart from the extended label growth they are excelerating uptake with the current label.
While I wouldn’t completely disagree with your comment regarding biotech valuations on the Nasdaq it’s not always the case (paratek) as recently had 2 fda approvals yet the shares are at multiple year lows ,will try to improve my poor grammar.

[rogerrail] 05/11/2018 09:54

Not sure the full year forecast has been upped to Y12.3bn, wasn't that the original forecast? Perhaps they will now beat that.

[polaris] 05/11/2018 09:30

Kyorin results 3.1Bn¥ sales for Q2 and 6.1Bn¥ for H1 FY19 for Flutiform. That's 0.7Bn¥ ahead of last year and 0.4Bn¥ ahead of estimates. FY19 sales forecast upped to 12.3Bn¥.

[alexchry] 05/11/2018 09:11

pob55 - What a well-timed post!

[pooroldboy55] 05/11/2018 08:18

It's a Monday normally up on a Monday.