Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[pooroldboy55] 15/8/2018 08:18

As early as possible in 2019 doesn't mean a thing how long is a piece of string? . Like Paul think it could be 12/ 18 months before we see much movement in share price
Cheers POB

[jimboyce] 15/8/2018 08:01

From hikma reportWe initiated a repeat clinical endpoint study for generic Advair Diskus(R) during H1 2018(4) . The study is proceeding as planned and we expect to submit a response to the FDA with the new clinical data as early as possible in 2019.

[polaris] 14/8/2018 19:43

Hikma have their results tomorrow so quite possible for an update on VR315 (generic Advair) timeline.

The VEC update is the one listed in the presentation as likely during Q3...we are still only half way through Q3. That kind of update would fit well with coming alongside H1 results, unless they sign a major new partnership beforehand, which is price sensitive, like the Ph II results, and would need to be announced.

As with any investment, you need to know your timescales. Mine here is on the 12-18 month window and so it really doesn't bother me too much about the day to day boredom. If an opportunity arises then i might add to my position but that really depends on how my other positions are doing and my available margin. For now, i feel i am fully invested.

[best1467] 14/8/2018 18:46

Polaris Thought I better check the update I was referring to ref news .17th may I quote JWLilley said (we are making good progress with our pipeline with a broad series of news flow anicapated for the rest of 2018 including our novel partnered projects and further Ventura enhanced programmes)
So three months on and still no news at least pacira have risen 10$ in the last couple of months to make up for the continued disappointment here ,surely we need some positive news flow soon.

[alexchry] 14/8/2018 08:23

polaris/fhmktg-surely the results of the ph2 trials have to be announced as soon as they are available not delayed until H1 results if they are known sooner. If not known sooner, then I would expect a progress update with the H1 results.

[fhmktg] 13/8/2018 23:23

That could bring the first indications from the budenoside trials?

[polaris] 07/8/2018 12:00

best1467 - see post 7427, with link to results presentation. Nothing expected until this Q. I doubt any updates until at least post H1 results, 11th september.

[alexchry] 07/8/2018 11:37

diesel-I just think there is an almost total lack of interest in VEC at the moment. Most days the volume traded is well below the average. It seems that everyone is waiting for some significant news before buying or selling. Ever since the GSK litigation, soon after the takeover, there has been a cloud over VEC which was made darker by the FDA decision on the Advair generic. We have around six months to wait before the litigation results, perhaps polaris can put a number on what a successful result would mean for VEC but I would hope for a significant rise in the share price

[diesel] 07/8/2018 10:37

We do seem to be finding it hard to pull away from 80p, I wonder if there is still some overhang (axa)? , it looks like this is a substantial consolidation after 18 months of downtrend, still happy to pick up more at these levels when cash becomes available.

[best1467] 07/8/2018 09:50

In the last set of results or update can’t be sure which but it was stated that there would be a stream of positive news in the next 12 months ,as of yet nothing so the credibility of this board is seriously in question at the moment.
We certainly need to be hearing something by end of September at the latest but will just have to wait and see.

[alexchry] 07/8/2018 09:30

Chrisdgb-ph2 results due sometime in Q3 so anytime now. No other specific news due but partnership deals could be announced anytime. It seems a long time since there was any unexpected good news from VEC, we could certainly do with some to get the share price moving.

[chrisdgb] 07/8/2018 09:18

Are we due any news with the interims next month.....??

[popper joe] 06/8/2018 22:07

Perhaps someone on this board who is an accountant can explain in simple terms. My understanding is that a large proportion of the retained losses that were shown on the most recent accounts and will appear again for the next few years are due to the amortization of goodwill that had previously been carried on the SKP accounts. Isn't this just a technicality now? It may suggest that VEC overpaid for SKP, but in terms of an actual operating loss? When Boadicea mentions above that current year profits must first be used to offset past losses, how would that work in practice? There is no third party to whom recompense can be paid. It seems that any profits will simply add to the mounting cash position.

[boadicea] 06/8/2018 20:13

The issue of whether a dividend can be paid is a rather technical one and, not being an accountant, I cannot explain the finer points. I only report what I have been told which is that dividends must be paid from accumulated profits (i.e. any current year profits must first be used, if required, to offset past losses). Possession of free cash is not sufficient.
However, permission can be requested by an application in court and granted (or possibly refused) to charge past losses against capital reserves (e.g. a share premium account) and 'clear the slate' so that future dividends can be paid.
In one recent case a company had to cancel a declared dividend because the holding company in whose name the shares were issued did not have sufficient retained profit in th eparent account although there were ample retained profits in the operating subsidiary. Company accounts sometimes need a careful reading to tease out such niceties!

[fhmktg] 06/8/2018 16:23

Our net asset value per share is 85p, which is a comfort!

[fhmktg] 06/8/2018 16:21

Retained losses are a balance sheet record of the cumulative losses incurred by a business.They are usually covered by either issuance of shares or loans taken out by the company- especially for a new start up.If shown on the p/l account as a trading loss they can be offset against any tax liability and HMRC would monitor this very carefully.It seems unlikely the VEC would pay a dividend whilst these feature on the balance sheet.As always generation of free cash flow is the key to the credibility of our company as it restructures itself and invests the cash in r&d and registration costs.On that basis I think we are ok for a while, but the market will want to see some partnering deals done pretty soon and products past the fda.2020/21 is a likely timescale.

[polaris] 06/8/2018 15:02

I've been looking some more and i think there may be some confusion. GSK Q2 shows their retained earnings at -£2.68Bn, yet they are paying a dividend. Are you sure you don't mean negative equity rather than negative retained earnings? I could understand that dividends are illegal in the first case, as there are no net assets to give a dividend against. You could not pay a dividend that would send the net assets to less than zero. GSK total shareholder equity (assets - liabilities) is still a little over £3bn and, in the case of VEC, over £550M.

[polaris] 06/8/2018 11:32

Hi boadicea,

Just been reading up on the above and that does appear to be the case, despite the retained losses arising as a result of amortisation and impairments from the SKP/VEC merger.

In 2016, the retained losses were down to £23.7M. The EBITDA for VEC in 2017 is close to £30M, but the DA part took it down to a hefty reported loss, which translates down into the retained earnings. This will also be the case for 2018-2020, possibly beyond, as the intangibles from the merger are steadily amortised.

VEC is profitable on an on-going concern basis, you only have to look at the EBITDA figures and increasing cash pile post-operations to see that (£103.7M cf. £92.5M FY17 cf. FY16, including £1.4M spent on the buyback during CY2017 of the £15M mandate). It still has hefty intangibles to amortise (£335.4M in 2017 v £456.8M in 2016) and the majority will occur during the next 3-5 years.

I'm certainly no accounting expert and so what happens if certain non-current asset values are written off?

regards,

Paul

[boadicea] 06/8/2018 08:52

There is no prospect of an early dividend as the last balance sheet shows retained losses of £108.6M. There is a statutory debarment of paying dividends from capital.
Hence the first indication of any intention to facilitae the payment of a dividend will be the filing of a court application for a capital reorgansation.

[dp1umb] 04/8/2018 12:50

Buybacks maybe but I can see no chance of a dividend.

[polaris] 04/8/2018 12:05

Diesel - the mandate for buybacks, not an actual defined programme. It's the threat that they could, which will deter an algo attack. You have to use all your weapons!

[diesel] 04/8/2018 12:00

I have often thought that a divvi policy would be a good idea, no point having a cash pile unless you are going to invest in aquistions or future r&d.. It would have a stabilising effect and give the market a sense of maturity and confidence, something that has been sorely lacking. Not sure about buybacks though.

[alexchry] 03/8/2018 15:10

polaris-a few more years to wait for the $32M then.