Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[richman777114] 24/10/2018 16:30

Polaris,Interesting-it is clear that the share price has been in manipulated mode for months now-first to help the shorters make a turn and perhaps now for a lowball bid by GSK or A N OtherAll IMHO

[polaris] 24/10/2018 16:09

whatever you want if you can control the candle...support/resistance/bullish engufling/bearish engulfing. The pure chartists out there will just follow the formation, not how it was achieved. If you take the volume weighted prices instead then the picture is somewhat more stable, with almost nothing below 70p.

[richman777114] 24/10/2018 11:06

polaris,so candle formations are generated creating what potential scenario ie to the upside or the downside?!

[polaris] 24/10/2018 08:49

Further evidence of chart manipulation?

UT last night on close was 69.3 for 52k shares, 0.5p below the spread.
UT on open this am 73.35, massively above the spread...for 183 shares. The next trade is 2p below that and everything since is below 71.6.

If this is not to generate certain types of candle formation then nothing is.

[best1467] 23/10/2018 07:27

I’d start early with the remuneration package.

[jeevsje] 22/10/2018 21:25

Anyone know why the guy started early?

[polaris] 22/10/2018 13:42

Only to say that my request has been sent to IR, as i submitted the email to their general account. I'd hope to receive something back this week.

[best1467] 22/10/2018 13:09

Hi Polaris just enquiring as to whether you had a response from IR ref litigation

[taffy100] 18/10/2018 07:38

From Novartis Q3 Resuts

Respiratory (USD 429 million, +7% cc)
performance was driven by continued growth of Xolair (USD 255 million, +8% cc) and Ultibro (USD 110 million, +11% cc).

[polaris] 16/10/2018 16:04

Hi Diesel - sometimes the only way to learn is to get slapped! ;-) If VEC have been applying for incremental patents that seem to target a specific pharma then they will need to learn.

I plan to email IR this evening regarding the cases, armed with the transcript that popper joe put up, as i have a few specific questions that should be answerable from information in the public domain, just not things that i can find. I also have questions regarding the patent family for exparel mentioned in the last results.

The other side of the equation is that if you do not stand up to IP infringement then the majors will just roll straight over you.

I'll ask whether any reply be posted or summarised on the BB here, as most people don't realise that you need to get permission.

[diesel] 16/10/2018 15:23

I think the result of the litigation is not purely on the loss or not of royalty payments but if Vec lose, they will be judged on the robustness of their patent protection policy and the foolhardiness of taking on a major with deep pockets with an uncertain outcome.

[best1467] 16/10/2018 13:24

Solely on the basis the since the Hikima generic knock back we have had no bad news yet we still have dropped not sureexactly but must be 35% 40% after the original fall on the news .
Even if you are correct in your assessment of the litigation as I said I feel a negative result is already priced in but does the market take that view let’s hope they do but I have my doubts .As I mentioned first thing we needed to hold 70p at the moment today’s rise at least is a positive from a charting point of view let’s hope we can run back to 80p

[alexchry] 16/10/2018 10:57

pob55-same for me, made my money on SKP, this would have to drop a lot, lot further before I am out of pocket even at these prices. At the first presentation of the year only three news items were forecast for this year - the FDA verdict on Advair, ph 2 results and ph 3 results. We have had two and the third is due this last quarter. A slow year for news but exactly as the company forecast, anything more would be a bonus. Things should liven up, however, in the next six months. I continue to hold and hope.

[pooroldboy55] 16/10/2018 10:30

Hi Paul
I go along with you i'm not a happy bunny but that's up to me ,long term this has got wings i may be wrong but its my money .As you know was in SKP and in the end paid off big time.
Chers A

[polaris] 16/10/2018 10:06

Why might we 'be looking at sub 50p'? You want to knock another £130M off the market cap. because a revenue line that is already being withheld and is under patent infringement litigation continues to be withheld at the end of the process? That with all and sundry just assuming that GSK will win the cases in the EU and the US, so it is already discounted...

Bear in mind that the SKP part of the business was £470M. Nothing about that side of the business has changed since the merger, as the impending Exparel patent lives were well-flagged. At the current share price then the whole of the old VEC company is valued at £0. How you are suggesting its value is -£150M.

Why does anyone think a board care about long suffering shareholders? They are trying to do the best they can for the business but any shareholder should also have their investment case and requirements to hold. You are responsible for your investment decisions.

[best1467] 16/10/2018 07:49

On that basis they are delivering on almost everything yet the share price keeps hitting multi year lows let’s hope we don’t get any bad news .
From the above comments regarding GSK litigation let’s hope that the likelihood of failure is already priced in or we may be looking at sub 50p ,but I’m sure the next update would still have a positive spin.
I don’t like to be negative to this management but it’s just frustrating that they always make out everything is rosy never any mention of an apology to long suffering shareholders yet we continue to drift ever lower from a charting point of view if we can’t hold 70p we are in uncharted territory.

[polaris] 15/10/2018 22:18

But 17A-F were added post the original court paperwork, probably as clarification by GSK. If the naming of the API is GSK specific then it will certainly make things interesting, as would appear to be targeting GSK. They are looking for commercial clarity as they put it for future sales of the Ellipta series to avoid infringing patents which are yet to be issued or are under review (the 'arrow'). If GSK fail to persuade the judges then they are looking at having to license the patent family potentially up until Dec 2029 looking at the submitted paperwork, depending on the exact ruling. If they win the case then it upholds their decision not to have to license the patent families beyond 2016 (the original agreement). It will cost VEC in royalties from this point...money already withheld by GSK, plus the litigation costs of course. It is a subject matter that the current court cannot rule upon and so must be passed on to the relevant court. There must be parallels with the US case, but the specific issues there are unclear looking at the background documents here.

As far as i can see, this bears no relation to the other VEC-GSK agreements from the legacy SKP IP (the ones GSK continue to pay for the three chemical identity formulations for up to £9M p.a.). I might need to contact IR to see whether they can clarify that one.

[popper joe] 15/10/2018 21:55

Paul, in the UK case, GSK are the plaintiff and are attempting to stop VEC from gaining new patents that would seem to have been written and submitted specifically with GSK's products in mind. (See 17F in the transcript). In the US, VEC are the plaintiff and I believe they are claiming that GSK are using a process covered by one of VEC's existing patents. So different issues really.

[polaris] 15/10/2018 20:39

Hi Popper Joe,

Thanks for that - it was a transcript i was unaware of. I now have a decent idea of what the case in the UK(EU) will cover. The Appeal court judges are just passing it down the line to the patent judges, over-ruling the initial judgement by the high court judge, which is well within their remit. However, they also state that the formulation of the PPD by GSK needs clarification on what basis they are claiming the processes are obvious. I assume this is also the basis for the case in the US.

regards,

Paul

[popper joe] 15/10/2018 19:30

I'm sure the timescale regarding GSK litigation will be met, but I fear the outcome will not be what VEC shareholders will be hoping for. As a VEC shareholder, I was hoping that VEC might emerge from this argument as the downtrodden, small company who had stood up to the big, bullying giant GSK. But if you read this court transcript from June 12th this year, you might conclude that VEC have not covered themselves in glory.



The June 12th court case was an appeal brought by GSK, following a High Court ruling that had thrown out an application by GSK for an "Arrow" declaration regarding pending patents that have been applied for by VEC. An Arrow declaration allows a company to, in effect, declare that something that one company is attempting to patent is not new or is common knowledge.

Within this transcript are the full details of GSK's argument, followed by VEC's response, which I have to say does not read particularly well. There is then the summing up by the two sitting Judges. The purpose of this hearing was not to grant an Arrow declaration, but to decide whether the High court had been correct to deny GSK the declaration that they sought. The Appeal court decided that the High court was wrong and that the case should go to trial, which will be the November 2018 date that Polaris mentioned above. If you read the Appeal court Judges' summing up, it is hard to believe that VEC will win in November.

[polaris] 15/10/2018 17:44

Nothing to move the share price in the right direction? Delays to expected newsflow? Positive spin?

Delivered since FY results
Ph II results VR647 - delivered successfully in Q3 (as expected) and discussing how to proceed into Ph III
VR632 (generic Symbicort) approved in the EU (as expected) and due for launch in 2019
K-haler launch in EU (as expected) in September 2018

flagged
VR475 Phase III Q4 top line results
VR465 Ph II results Q4 (via partner Ablynx)
GSK Ellipta portfolio litigation Q4 2018 - Q1 2019 (EU and US cases)
VR315 repeat clinical study and CRL response 2019 - resubmission expected in 2019 with potential launch in 2020.
QVM149 Ph III results 2019 with expected submission to FDA for approval.
Potential multi generics portfolio licessing deal - included in 2018 with no timeline and also incldues the word 'potential'.
VR410 Ph I feasibility and commercial opportunity review (generic Spiriva) in H2 2018.
VR2081 ongoing development (Symbicort in the US) - no timeline given
New opportunities in nebulised programmes.

So far they have delivered in the flagged timescales...

[polaris] 15/10/2018 13:24

There are never promises at AGMs - that is your interpretation. There are statements where board members state things like 'expect' and 'hope' but the disclaimers always state that this is the case anyway. A deal is not delivered until it is signed and announced. Honestly, did you expect to get a different reply from IR? They can only reiterate what is in the public domain.

[a1ord53] 15/10/2018 11:20

Its what I received after I asked CEO of Vectura about his promises at AGM:


Thank you for your email addressed to our CEO, James Ward-Lilley. We completely understand your frustrations and have been very open about the headwinds we experienced in 2017, including de-stocking with flutiform and the challenges with our generic Advair programme, which were highlighted at both the full-year results in March and again at our half year in September. We are committed to generating substantial long term value for shareholders and our focus is on executing the agreed strategy endorsed by the Board.

As a Company we are regaining momentum, as reported at our Interim results om 11th September. We have consistently communicated our clear strategy for growth and continue to make progress on delivering against our goals. We announced positive Phase II VR647 data in August and we have a number of news flow items during the remainder of 2018 and 2019 which have the potential to be significant catalysts for the stock.

Recently, in line with the overall equity market, there has been pressure on stocks; particularly in the smaller mid-cap space.

Again, we do understand your frustrations and we will report news flow via public announcements as we are able to.

Best wishes,

Julia

Julia Wilson
Interim Director - Investor Relations
Vectura Limited, a member of the Vectura Group of companies

[polaris] 13/10/2018 09:59

The March-April rise looked like a trading algo, smelled like a trading algo and was accompanied by baseless rumours right up to the point that VEC announced the FD leaving. Sosei immediately officially denied any interest when they were mentioned in one rumour. GSK was all around the protection of Advair revenues...hogwash. I believe that someone(s) knew the impending news about the FD and played the company. The volumes peaked around 20M, the day before the VEC announcement and right at the height of the BS rumours. share price gave it all back within 5 trading sessions, a classic squeeze play. Someone made a killing and i think the trading patterns were reported to the FCA as highly unusual/possibly illegal. Nothing has made it to the public domain regarding whether there was anything to answer for.

VEC v GSK. The latter has size and an effectively unlimited budget to fight IP battles. GSK does have a history of screwing us over - SKP and Paxil CR anyone? If the generic device development from VEC has any merit then bogging the company down in litigation on other details is a great way to destroy shareholder value for the smaller company and wear IIs down to agree to a low-ball offer. However, that is pure speculation on my part. We are talking about up to £15M in royalties for VEC p.a. from the patent family (from 2016...) and possible early end to the up to £9M p.a. royalties from the SKP IP agreement. I'm not sure how long the latter patent families even have to run, but i read somewhere that the lapse dates start in 2019. This is absolute peanuts to GSK but could be crippling to a small pharma and all for what? Is it the temerity VEC have publicly stated that they are developing a generic device for the premier portfolio in the respiratory division of a tier I pharma, which is expected to bring in $5Bn+ p.a. in global sales by 2023?

An AB-rated substitutable device for the Ellipta series and the formulation know-how of VEC (who do this for some of the Ellipta series already and possibly all from the two agreements!) has the potential to materially impact a tier I pharma on that timescale. What is the probability of VEC succeeding? What is the opportunity cost? what are the mitigation strategies? I am wondering whether part of this case is to allow GSK to understand where VEC are in the development cycle, test out their legal department, links and appetite for a drawn out IP battle. It might also allow them to gather information on the device development and frame the risk.

On the base VEC valuation then Flutiform, Breelib, Seebri, Ultibro, Utibron and the generics (e.g. approved Symbicort in EU/development on-going in US, Advair, Spiriva) are not going away. Then you have the nebulised therapies and the other partner developments (e.g. QVM149, Ablynx, moves into China, pediatric possibilities in far East/China for Flutiform where it does have reasonable market share). I already fully discount the oral portfolio, as it will disappear over time. However, the vast bulk of revenues and growth prospects are from a young portfolio of products and relatively near-term (3-5 year) potential assets. The cash pile is large enough to support the transition and development strategy.

I remain here based on those prospects and the timescales. However, that does not mean that sentiment and the short term voting aspect of the stock market will not see the share price plumb new depths. I have a valuation model, based on prospects, that i think has a high probability of playing out over a certain timescale. So far, nothing has materially changed there for me to need to re-evaluate. There are several flagged news-flow items in the coming months that will require me to re-evaluate.

I added a few on the way down once we got below 76p, but do not intend to add more to core holding. Anything i add or trim now will be non-core and based entirely on the chart, with well defined entry an exit points.

regards,

Paul