Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 22/11/2023 15:49

That alone deserves the door

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 14:25

According to Upstream today

"Chevron is preparing the ground to drill up to 10 exploration and appraisal wells in a highly promising block in Namibia’s exciting Orange basin, directly north of TotalEnergies’ multibillion-barrel Venus discovery.

The US supermajor farmed in to Block 2813AB last year, shortly after Tullow Oil exited and Venus was discovered, eventually acquiring all of the interest held by Australian junior Harmattan Energy and part of the stake held by local player Trago Energy."

Remember it well. Total Energies were drilling the worlds largest oil exploration prospect to be drilled that year. Well spud on 1/12/2021 and a massive discovery, thought to be the largest single offshore oil discovery this century, was announced 85 days after spud. Mid-way through the drilling of that well, Tullow inexplicably exited the highly promising block immediately to the north of Total's block. Chevron jumped in, have shot and processed 3D seismic and are now permitting up to 10 wells. Not one of Rahul's most sensible decisions! TLW gave up 56% for nothing. I assume the 56% reverted back to our former minnow partners who quickly concluded a sale with Chevron.

In the meantime the company have been unable to farm out stuff they didn't voluntarily give up like Guyana, Kenya, Argentina etc.

More here

"The gossip suggests Chevron paid $100 million for a stake.

Before the deal, Harmattan Energy had a 37.06% stake in the Orange Basin licence, while Trago Energy had 52.94% and Namcor 10%. Harmattan is the operator.

Harmattan increased its stake in the block from 14% to 37.06% in February this year."

That was after Tullow as operator exited for zero $$$.

We could have/should have sold our 56% to Chevron for c.$50m but didn't. Despite that our CEO received a bonus award of £717K last year.

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 12:37

PFC chart looks terrible!

[blackhorse23] 22/11/2023 12:24

Money moving to PFC

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 11:04

ok ctc1, I agree thats the plan, lets see what 2024 looks like

if you assume; non-op is 13.5K net, TEN is 18K gross and JUB 102K gross you get

63.1K w/int

All else being equal

JUB 105K gross = 64.3K w/int gross production for the company

JUB 110K gross = 66.2K w/int

JUB 115K gross = 68.2K w/int

I'd be pleasantly surprised if they get anywhere near 115K Jub next year.

None of the above includes gas.

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 10:42

Yes ctc1 I believe those 2 TEN wells were rather optimistically characterised as "development" wells and the company purchased all the production hardware in advance. I did query that characterisation with the company before they were drilled

Q: With regard to the two "strategic" wells on N'tomme. Are these basically more like exploration wells, the objective being to prove up potential resource we think has been identified on seismic and if successful TLW will then be in a position to FID? Or is this area already fully appraised?

and received the following response

A: The “strategicR21; wells in the riser base area will help to prove up the significant resource potential. They are producer wells though and will be drilled this year, with a view to completing them in 2023. Hence no immediate production benefit from these wells this year.

which didn't really address my central point! Sorry on rereading their answer did address my central point.

[ctc1] 22/11/2023 10:28

still overall I think astonishing progress on the whole. now moving to much higher output going forward, agreed? jse will ramp up output big 100k+ and with another 2 wells water injection this year, and 15 more possibly later the production levels can only increase even further. Not all forward guidance is likely to be realised but overall things looking up.

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 10:22

Just checked, FY gross w/int prod was

2014 75.2K bopd
2015 73.4
2016 67.1
2017 87.3
2018 81.4
2019 86.8
2020 74.9
2021 59.2
2022 61.1
2023 somewhere between 57K and 58K

[ctc1] 22/11/2023 10:21

I think a couple of newly drilled wells failed on Ten and forced them to rethink Ten forward direction, now being reviewed by Ghana.

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 09:47

If you go back to slide 7 of his Dec 2020 CMD Pres; 10 yr forward annual gross production was supposed to be somewhere between an absolute min/max of 60K/80K bopd, and a more likely range of 64K/78K bopd. So far Rahul's production forecasts have not been met. Apparently there are some water injection issues at the moment. Not much detail has been given other than "delays". I did send them a Q on this but received no response. OTOH 12 month forward FCF guidance tends to be conservative.

[pacsltd] 22/11/2023 09:42

@ctc1 - totally agree with you.

[ctc1] 22/11/2023 09:09

I'd like to get back to Tlw. So is Rahul "over promising"?

[xxnjr] 22/11/2023 07:11

It's interesting how just having an opinion on a subject elicits a response prefaced with "Not sure where you come". One is allowed to have independent thought!

[xxnjr] 21/11/2023 22:45

Not sure I understand this argument about "democracy". Actions are more important than concepts. If the democracy concerned illegally steals land and builds settlements on stolen land and displaces the rightful owners of that land; then what is so good about "democracy"? Having said that one must also be critical of Hamas's recent actions. Just wish exhaustion would set in and everybody could live in peace in that part of the world.

[pacsltd] 21/11/2023 22:05

I am not defending Israel or Hamas or Iran as I hate all wars.

However, I respectfully request that you look at the map of the middle east and identify from a long list of countries how many of those are democracies. I think there is one.

The world is not perfect but I think democracy is the worst form of government apart from all the others.

[mcsean2164] 21/11/2023 21:58

Exactly, Hezbollah's recent speeches were against escalation and in favour of ceasefire. There seems no appetite for war against Israel.

Israel is an apartheid state that has oppressed Palestinians for around 75 years.



Helpful tweet with excerpts from Jewish documentary filmmaker here on the first nakba.



Israel is a rogue state currently engaged in ethnic cleansing. Despite that Iran is not looking to get involved. Iran has a very different culture to the West. I've had Iranian friends and dined with them, it's not a monoculture. I don't understand the animosity to Iran, I guess the USA hate them so everyone else should too.

When I grew up we would often meet people of different cultures but respect their right to those beliefs and cultures especially when in their country and try to learn more of them. That respect seems to have expired in the 21sr century.

[pacsltd] 21/11/2023 19:49

@controlledmadness
Thank you, I thought it was just me.

[controlledmadness] 21/11/2023 19:12

mcseam
I do not know who you listen to but Iran supports 3 groups firing rockets at Israel.
Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. All three groups are supported financially and with arms from Iran.
You must be listening to the supporters of these groups to not know what is going on.
The palestinian main song supports killing 7 million Jews to destroy Israel.

[blackhorse23] 21/11/2023 12:38

Added PFC today

[xxnjr] 21/11/2023 09:55

All I know is the 1st casualty in any war is the truth.

[mcsean2164] 21/11/2023 09:50

Apologies, not trying to start a political discussion.

As regards poo, middle east war would likely send it higher. It's not something I'd personally like to see. The main risk as I see it is continued USA unconditional support of Israel in their bombing campaign and it seems obvious that Iran does not want war but if the bombings continue their allies might drag them into a wider war especially if they are blamed for the actions of militias.

I'm only repeating what commentators are saying I've no direct insight. Maybe above is wrong.

[pacsltd] 21/11/2023 09:19

That's right. Iran is peaceful and the U.S. are nasty warmongers.

I notice you failed to add that you hoped Hamas would stop butchering innocent Israeli citizens.

Mummy says your dinner is ready, now run along.

[mcsean2164] 21/11/2023 08:29

Iran seems to have no interest in war, see Hizbollah recent speeches. The USA continues to supply bombs to Israel to kill children. They block calls for a ceasefire.

Hopefully there will be no wider war and hopefully the Israeli's will stop bombing Gaza.

In the meantime, I find it shocking the share price is still below where it was look sst year.