Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 02/11/2023 20:44

Thanks r9505571,is that your student number?

[r9505571] 01/11/2023 09:10

Additionally, Ghanaian Energy Minister Matthew Opoku Prempeh was reported this week as saying Exxon was interested in a return to the offshore upstream.Exxon had an 80% stake in the Deepwater Cape Three Points. It relinquished the stake in 2021, the same year it relinquished two blocks in Equatorial Guinea. The company's exit from Ghana was seen as a major blow to the country's prospects.Ghana is offering acreage to investors, including Exxon's old licence. The company held a roadshow early this year, offering some blocks for direct negotiation.Exxon declined to comment on the Ghana speculation.

[subsurface] 31/10/2023 11:50

Hope so XX thanks for posting.

[xxnjr] 31/10/2023 09:04

TEN about to start an FPSO offload. Suggests performance may have recovered a bit to the 19K to 20K range. (Noting that infrequent offloads with 45 day to 60 day intervals makes judging things sketchy!)

[reubenblackgold] 30/10/2023 14:22

There should be some nice move.ent here on Thursday.

NSV Patel, second to none :)

[zingaro] 30/10/2023 13:05

r95..: you have to subscribe (even if the first month is for free). Can you not post an extract ?

[r9505571] 29/10/2023 08:50

https://apple.news/A-s3O9oqvTLe9NT9itVoT_A

[xxnjr] 29/10/2023 01:54

Looks like we may have a new identity; "Tullow" as we seem to have ditched "oil".

[xxnjr] 29/10/2023 01:23

Hi folks,

Latest petrocom data out for August

Jubilee 97,964 bopd, not bad.
TEN 18,524 bopd, not so good.

If you remember, original guidance for 2023FY was 95K Jub/20K TEN. To hit that now, Jub and TEN would need to ave for the period Sept through Dec; 129K bopd and 24K bopd respectively. Obviously this isn't going to happen.

Company guidance was reduced from 58K to 64K bopd to, 58K to 60K bopd at the recent interim results. Even hitting the lower end of that range could now be challenging (*if you assume Non-op is 14K net).

Having said that FCF will hopefully exceed guidance given the 4 cargoes we know about that TLW despatched in Jul/Aug probably went at an average of about $85/bbl judging by the OP at the time of the shipping dates.

*(we have no insights into non-op other than the annual 14K target.)

Recent tanker movements suggest JUB is kind of 97K to 98K for Sept/Oct

Obviously DYOR and don't rely on this post for making investment decisions!

[subsurface] 27/10/2023 11:31

Hi Alfiex,
Be interesting to see what happens Ghana are in a mess with Gas take or pay agreement with ENI
Tullow have been flaring excess gas for a long time.

August production numbers

[alfiex] 27/10/2023 09:45

subsurface, in a normal situation that would be good for us but it sounds like if we supplied more they possibly couldn't pay for it

[subsurface] 27/10/2023 09:07

Ghana power crisis: Limited gas supply triggers nationwide power outage


Most parts of Ghana have been plunged into darkness due to a lack of gas to power machinery used to generate electricity in the country.

Power distribution firm Ghana Grid Company Limited (GRIDCo) says the situation has caused "a supply gap of 550MW at peak time" at Tema power plant, near the capital, Accra.

The major outage started on Thursday evening.

Ghana is currently going through its worst economic crisis in a generation.

A June study said the country's current energy provision was "critically unhealthy and tottering towards a power crisis".

The power situation, which could worsen in the coming years, has been exacerbated by the country's financial distress, the Centre for Socioeconomic Studies (CSS) study showed.

In July, independent power producers in the country threatened to shut down operations over arrears owed to them by state-run Electricity Company of Ghana.

In a statement on Thursday, GRIDCo, the power operator, said electricity supply to consumers in some parts of Ghana would be curtailed as a result of "limited gas supply" to Tema power plant.

"The inconvenience caused is deeply regretted," the statement added.

The power utility firm did not say what had caused the problem with gas supplies, or say how long it would take for normal supplies to resume.

Ghana has for several years been experiencing power shortages popularly known as "dumsor", which means on and off in the Akan language.

The West African country gets its much of its electricity from hydro and thermal sources, but these are often poorly maintained

[subsurface] 26/10/2023 14:48

Mixed signals from kenya president

Ruto said the country would still be pressing ahead with its plans to develop its oil and gas reserves, just not as a priority.



chevron announces agreement to acquire Hess,they must see things differently!

[reubenblackgold] 25/10/2023 15:44

NSV Patel ,spot on again, easy money :)

[reubenblackgold] 24/10/2023 11:07

TLW have already stated that Jubilee is producing more than 100k bopd.
Expect a nice rise here tomorrow pm.

[ariane] 23/10/2023 17:13

Josh Lamb



Tullow Oil upgraded on growing production

Published: 15:39 23 Oct 2023

Tullow Oil PLC - Tullow Oil receives analyst upgrade

Tullow Oil PLC (LSE:TLW) has come into favour among Jefferies analysts on the back of high commodity prices and growing production prospects.

In a research note, Jefferies pointed to improving production at Tullow’s Jubilee field offshore Ghana as key in its decision to upgrade the firm’s rating from ‘underperform’ to ‘hold’.

Risks on some US$633 million worth of senior notes, which are due to mature in 2025, have largely been priced into Tullow’s shares meanwhile, the bank added.

It said lower-than-anticipated capital expenditure in the future also bodes well for Tullow, which has benefitted alongside peers from higher commodity prices in recent months.

Tullow received a hefty upgrade on its share price target as a result, from 25p to 35p - marking a prospective rise of 5% on Friday’s close.

“Tullow equity remains a play on debt refinancing risk versus operational improvement,” Jefferies added.

Tullow is due to provide a trading upgrade in early November, with Jefferies suggesting trends toward 100,000 barrel-per-day production at the Jubilee field would mark a positive sign.

Proactive

[kulvinder] 21/10/2023 09:48

Update on the 15 Nov, so we will know soon enough if the higher oil price has helped to create more free cash..

[reubenblackgold] 20/10/2023 10:58

Did someone call this pull back. NSV Patel, spot on again:)

[xxnjr] 19/10/2023 21:48

Maybe not. It's an advfn thing. It's the same for CNE and RDSB. And advfn does say "limited realtime streaming" or words to that effect. advfn would like you to upgrade to 'Realtime' which is £19.11 pcm special offer.....

[hubshank] 19/10/2023 20:38

I just randomly picked a few other shares and trades recorded all afternoon, so this is peculiar to TLW

[pacsltd] 19/10/2023 20:34

I hope you are right.
Interested in downright rude and offensive opinions for discussion

[alfiex] 19/10/2023 19:22

Someone on the other board said that there was an incident on stock exchange but I googled it and it was reported but got no defining answer

[hubshank] 19/10/2023 17:16

According to my screen, there weren't any trades after 3pm, or if there were they've been reported with cumulative end of day cross trades. Curious.... One would expect the price to fall if no buyers picking them up, after all, that's the role of the MMSo I wonder if now we are going to see something happen?Interested in non offensive opinions for discussion

[reubenblackgold] 18/10/2023 15:30

More easy money, will pull back from here.

[xxnjr] 18/10/2023 10:30

Doubt if it makes much difference either way SS? Only thing that matters here is maintaining Jubilee at 100K, TEN at 15K to 20K and Non-op at 14K if possible. A proper Gas Sales Agreement would be good as has immediate revenue impact on c. 130 mmscfd gross of gas. The TEN enhancement plan gas development, whatever that is, would be good but then again it could conceivably take another 2 yrs from sanction to build onshore Gas Processing Plant 2 before we get any benefit? Unless GNPC could upgrade the current plant to, I don't know what, let's say 180 mmscfd in relatively short order?

We've been attempting to farm out the rest of our acreage for years without results; so one presumes it's of little value.

In summary there's nothing much happening here. A GSA and that's it. Keep producing oil. Keep paying down the debt. And ofc refinance the debt.

Anything else would be a bonus. Would imagine Rahul would like to buy some offshore producing assets in Nigeria from an exiting major but do we have the financial capacity? also assets expensive at the moment.

also see