Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 12/5/2023 09:55

Iunderstand Badger,I am so far under water I am in the Creatacious
very long term,over 20years.and looking for over 4 pounds.
Tullow gave me two chances
to sell at 15 pounds or to buy at 7p so i don,t moan too much..
remember you only lose if you sell.

[badger36] 12/5/2023 09:21

Well I've lost so much holding it I'm loathe to buy as it seems an never ending slide to oblivion

[subsurface] 12/5/2023 08:59

Can it hit the 3 year low of 9.75?
Do you want it to Badger?

[badger36] 12/5/2023 08:12

April 2020 was similar price Can it hit the 3 year low of 9.75?Seems Fizz was correct. Executives have screwed ever effort to right the ship and the scandal of excessive pay and bonuses only confirm the thesis that most listed entities are for the benefit of executives rather than shareholders

[hsfinch] 11/5/2023 19:44

Quo got this one nailed. Down down deeper and down.

[mccracken227] 11/5/2023 19:44

Yet another years low price, yawwwn!

[blueclyde] 11/5/2023 19:07

Is there anything in the debt details that would force an emergency equity raise here?

[bones698] 11/5/2023 14:43

Debts still the problem though either they need to sell another field or two depending on what that would raise or pray oil prices remain high,even higher than they are now .
If debt rises due to work undertaken and it's not paid out of cash and revenue this is a bad sign .
I noted someone saying there y may focus on that later this year ,debt repayment , but this opens up a lot more risks if there is any issue with the wells and output ..

The window is closing fast and debt needs to be reduced drastically otherwise there are simply to many risks and that's why the shareprice continues to fall . They also need to increase profit margins something I haven't seen them mention at all .

1.8bn debt and 350m mkt cap I can see why it's falling pretty fast .

[xxnjr] 11/5/2023 13:47

Yes, that's it mcs. A clause in the 2026 $1.8bn 10.25% Bonds stipulates that the amount owing reduces by $100m on 1st anniversary, and subsequent anniversaries of issue date, which was 17th May 2021, with the repayments to be made on the 15th May.

"Interest on the Notes will be paid semi-annually in arrears on May 15 and November 15 of each year, beginning on November 15, 2021. The Notes will mature on May 15, 2026. The Company may redeem the Notes in whole or in part at any time on or after May 15, 2023 at the redemption prices specified herein. Prior to May 15, 2023, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount thereof, plus accrued and unpaid interest and additional amounts, if any, plus the applicable “make whole” premium, as described herein. Prior to May 15, 2023, the Company may redeem up to 35% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes with the net proceeds from certain equity offerings at the redemption price set forth herein. Additionally, the Company may redeem all, but not less than all, of the Notes upon the occurrence of certain changes in applicable tax law.
Upon certain events defined as constituting a change of control, the Company may be required to make an offer to purchase each series of the Notes at 101% of their principal amount, plus accrued and unpaid interest and additional amounts, if any.
The Notes will be the Company’s senior secured obligations and will be guaranteed (the “Note Guarantees” and, each, a “Note Guarantee”) on a senior secured basis by certain of its material subsidiaries (together, the “Guarantors221;). On May 15 of each of the Company’s fiscal years beginning with the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the Company shall prepay $100.0 million of the outstanding principal amount of the Notes (plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, in respect of the Notes prepaid) at a prepayment price equal to 100% of the aggregate principal amount of Notes redeemed. See “Description of Notes—Mandatory prepayments; No sinking fund.”

[mcsean2164] 11/5/2023 13:00

Looks like paying back $100 million. Thereby saving 10.25% in interest and reducing overall burden. They must be obliged to pay back 100% otherwise why not buy at market?

Seems like a bit of good news?

[alfiex] 11/5/2023 12:52

Good question dros

[dros1] 11/5/2023 12:39

xx can you please explain what this article as about ?
hxxps://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TULLOW-OIL-PLC-9590152/news/Tullow-Oil-Inside-Information-Ad-Hoc-Information-43806403/

[subsurface] 11/5/2023 10:10

Thanks XX sent you a reply.

[farrugia] 11/5/2023 08:13

thanks xxnjr

[xxnjr] 11/5/2023 07:55

Several catalysts.

Previous CEO got fired as had mismanaged the company.

Realisation that Ghana production was about to plummet as on Jubilee (1) the CEO hadn't maintained the FPSO (= high down time) nor (2) drilled enough w/inj or gas/inj wells to manage Gas Oil Ratios and reservoir pressure (= too much associated gas being produced which was > handling capacity of FPSO so had to reduce production and (3) hadn't drilled enough new oil wells either (= even lower production)

and (4) TEN wasn't as good as they thought so production there declined a lot (from about 50K gross to 20K now.

and (5) the oil they discovered in Guyana was potentially commercial except that it wasn't

and (6) had spent years drilling failed exploration wells so debt rose to unsustainable levels

for starters!

[farrugia] 11/5/2023 07:31

could someone with better knowledge than myself please fill me in: what caused the huge decline in stock price of Tullow Oil in 2019/2020 from 210p to present levels? Was there some catalyst?

Also, how much margin do Tullow Oil get per barrel of oil? At what oil price are they profitable?

I think they could really do with a merger with a cash-rich counterpart at these levels!

[alfiex] 11/5/2023 07:30

Correct xxnjr you have just said what we all think

[alfiex] 11/5/2023 07:04

Definitely looking good, lets hope they can get there and get the debt down. Funny that we get more info from KOS than we do from TLW

[xxnjr] 11/5/2023 06:58

And Q&A

Alex Smith

Yes. Hi guys. Thanks for the call today. Just a quick question on Ghana and in particular Jubilee, looks like a slight change of guidance to 110 gross production from I guess you and your operator. And kind of what's driving that? Have the wells drilled ahead of expectations or are you just more confident in the base Jubilee. And then just the Southeast moves on top of that? Just could hear your insight there, please?

Andrew Inglis

Yes. Thanks, Alex. I don't think there's not a big difference really. I think the – we're reaching 110 by the fourth quarter I think is consistent with the operator's guidance. So I think overall, we're on track to do what we said we would do. We've clearly got better knowledge now of the wells and their individual performance of those wells having cleaner drills and completed those wells. So it's now through the process of startup. We've got the first well in the main field starting up shortly. Then with the completion of the infrastructure on Jubilee Southeast, we've got one well starting up at the end of the second quarter, third in the third quarter, followed by a producer and injector in the main field. So I think, the build up to that 110,000 I think is clearly laid out. The activity set is on plan and the well rates that we are targeting are clearly consistent with our and slightly ahead of our pre-drill estimate.

Matthew Smith

Hi there. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a couple perhaps, I'll go one at a time. The first would be Jubilee just noting the reduced water pressure that you had there across January and February. Just wondering if you're able to [indiscernible] or a more recent production data point just to understand how we enter into 2Q, or all else equal before the new wells come onstream.

Andrew Inglis

Yes. Thanks, Matt. Yes I think that we clearly saw the drop between 4Q and 1Q, right, which was really around under injection while we completed the drilling on Jubilee Southeast. We now sort of played catch up, so we're sort of flat with that level that we achieved in the quarter. The production essentially flat around 70,000 barrels a day and then we start to build process with the new wells coming on. And I think, as we look at that, as I said on the prior question from Alex, I think we've got a clear activity set to complete in terms of the infrastructure build out that things are on track. The wells, we've had good results from those both in the main field and in Jubilee Southeast. So we're starting that steady buildup now.

And then, I think, as I said in my remarks, I think we – this is a big field that continues to get bigger. We've got a real target now to maintain the plateau level above a 100,000 barrels a day. We see plenty of opportunity in the infill program that we've got. So I think – now it's really about getting up to that plateau level and then maintaining it to a quality drilling program. And clearly, we've been very efficient on the drilling in this phase of the main field and Jubilee Southeast.

Charles Meade

Good morning, Andy, Neal and the whole Kosmos team there. I guess my first question would be on the Jubilee Southeast development. And just to pull on the thread that you guys kind of left us with last quarter when you talked about there were some additional pay zones that you guys encountered with your drilling there. And I'm curious what work have you guys done or how do those additional zones factor into the development and the plateau that you're referring to either in the short-term or the long-term?

Andrew Inglis

Yes. Good question, Charles. I think that it's really about a couple of things I would say. In Jubilee, we have an opportunity set that we've identified through the 4D on the main field. We've had one cycle of it, yes, the initial second cycle. And then we've got another cycle coming up next year. So the main field, you are building that hopper of opportunity. The piece around Jubilee Southeast though is that it's Virgin Reservoir and therefore comes essentially at a lower GOR. And therefore the incremental production that you get from those wells, given we're really gas constrained on the facility, is important. So I think the ability to differentially pull forward the Jubilee Southeast wells, maybe ahead of some of those main fields is the part of maintaining the plateau and then actually extending it.

So I think it's that opportunity that Jubilee Southeast has sort of grown in relative scale versus I would say the opportunity set in the main field. But again, back to the commentary, overall, therefore there's a lot of opportunity as it were in the main field from unswept areas identified by 4D and in the undeveloped part of Jubilee Southeast with additional pay zones coming in, which gives us the confidence around that ultimate length of the plateau. So I think it's an interesting time in the development of Jubilee. We're going through a phase now of ramp up.

And then I think – then the real opportunity comes from being able to hydrate that activity set and therefore extend the plateau. So it's really that what I would ultimately say is that it's the longevity of the plateau, and it's because you are seeing unswept areas in the main field. But you're also seeing, as you rightly point out additional horizons in Jubilee Southeast. And again, they come with probably a slightly higher initial production rate because of the lower GOR.

[xxnjr] 11/5/2023 06:36

Extract from KOS call transcript

"Turning to Slide 5, which provides more detail on Jubilee, which is expected to drive our near-term production growth this year. At full-year results in late February, talked about the significant upside potential at Jubilee over the coming years. This is a big field that continues to get bigger with an estimated resource of over 2 billion barrels in place and over a 1 billion barrels equivalent expected to be recoverable. Less than 40% of these recoverable barrels have been produced since the field came online in late 2010, which creates the opportunity to extend the plateau of this high margin production.

Over the year, we expect to see production growth coming from both the main fields and through the new Jubilee Southeast infrastructure as additional wells are brought online. In the main field, the partnership is planning to add two producer wells and one water injection well this year with the first producer expected online shortly. The other producer and injector should be online during the third quarter.

On Jubilee Southeast, first production is expected to start up in June. Two producer wells and one injector well have been drilled with the producers anticipated online in late 2Q and early 3Q, respectively with the water injector coming online in early 2024. The chart on the right shows the expected impact of the new wells coming on screen with gross production expected to rise over 50% from the first quarter to more than 110,000 barrels of oil per day in the fourth quarter.

With over 30 identified development drilling opportunities, the partnership is aiming to maintain gross production above 100,000 barrels of oil per day through the end of the decade....."

Slide 5 here:

[bones698] 10/5/2023 16:13

Unfortunately as I predicted . The debts are killing the company and the management missed the chance to pay a big chunk of them off by trying to increase production which didn't exactly work . The decline in the fields on some of their assets is highly alarming and with a mkt cap of over 300m still I expect to see this head lower ,a lot lower if I'm honest .

Not sure I see a stretchy that will result in a business worth 300m once the debts are cleared ,selling off the assets won't bring in enough to cover them and why I expect to see this sub 15p maybe even 10p unless oil prices take off . Not likely given the looming recessions and even with OPEC cutting production to try and maintain this level .

Poor management

[hsfinch] 10/5/2023 11:36

Reminds me of the Status Quo song...down down deeper and down. Meanwhile, senior management and staff aint bothered. They're enjoying crazy pay n perks, bonuses and more.

[xxnjr] 09/5/2023 17:18

ref my 58671

"It only takes about 45 days and 63 days to drill and complete w/inj and oil producer respectively. And about 30 days of that happened last year. So in theory a new JSE producer ought to be coming on-line soon assuming the sub-sea infrastructure is ready. And if not ready then just drill a well into main field. I did ask about this but T HQ insisted the 1st new well would be JSE mid-year with the main field well after that. Let's hope they are bluffing as it doesn't make sense to not have a main field well come online now if JSE subsea not ready."

It now seems TLW have had a change of plan. According to Kosmos webcast just finished; 1 main field producer will come on line "shortly", followed by 2 JSE and 1 main field producers over 3Q. Makes a lot more sense and this is quite different to what TLW told us! Positive news though.