Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 22/4/2023 06:22

Not able to open XX re posted

[xxnjr] 21/4/2023 21:44

hmmmm! Looks like the company wish to keep the AGM resolutions under the radar. Why else would they release the AGM RNS on a Friday at 17.56hrs after everyone has left the office. Very odd! Poor optics. What are they scared of? Anyway the AGM.pdf is here

[mcsean2164] 21/4/2023 21:20

Sadly, there's no activist investors...

[subsurface] 21/4/2023 15:22

Could the AGM be a defining moment?

Activist shareholders may use an AGM as an opportunity to express their concerns.

Additional Topics Covered at an Annual General Meeting (AGM)
If the company has not been performing well, the AGM is also when shareholders can question the board of directors and management as to why performance has been poor. The shareholders can demand satisfactory answers as well as to inquire about the strategies that management plans to implement to turn the company around.

form an orderly queue!

[badger36] 21/4/2023 11:03

It's happening with all the small Biotechs as well. Executives milking it and then reverse split after split and all the time nothing but options and salaries plus expenses. Listed companies work got insiders only now

[xxnjr] 21/4/2023 10:11

Dhir has already been given option shares

3m at Nil
3m at 25.7p
3m at 51.3p; all 9m to 'compensate' for his Delonex options ceasing as no longer employed there but Delonex was wound up anyway, so the options would have been worthless? Not a good look.

TIP shares 2.8m

Cash £3.6m

The Q is; is Dhir here to sort out the company, or just enrich himself for 5 yrs before retiring, or moving on. Not clear yet.

And getting back to the 9m shares. If your previous employer was wound up, would you expect your next employer to compensate you for the failure of your previous company? Very odd.

[badger36] 21/4/2023 09:35

How low does it need to go to cause the lenders and debt holders to wind it up? It can't be far off. Dhir and his cronies will get a cut

[alfiex] 20/4/2023 16:08

"Once debts are reduced" is the critical line in that report, but for the last 12 months TLW have said they have a few options to reduce the debt but are doing nothing and the share price has halved. Hence the negativity.

[dros1] 20/4/2023 15:35

Tullow will reduced debt before paying dividend in 2026 - ft. article with a nice chart what not to like ? why are you so negative?

[alfiex] 20/4/2023 15:10

This dog is down 49.5% in last 12 months.I think we need new management before the lights go out.

[blackhorse23] 20/4/2023 08:45

Best value oil stock is ENQ

[xxnjr] 19/4/2023 20:08

Indeed it doesn't zingaro. Don't take my numbers as gospel. But it does illustrate that the No.1 priority should have been reducing the debt. Without meaningful debt reduction there can be no value here.

[badger36] 19/4/2023 16:07

Given their appalling performance the longer they stay away the better

[zingaro] 19/4/2023 15:50

xxnjr: that doesn't cover the debt that TLW are carrying.

[xxnjr] 19/4/2023 14:10

Just had a scary thought. How much is TLW Ghana Worth? Which is 38.9% of JUB and 54.8% of TEN. Well KOS bought 18% and 11% of these fields for $550m (later reduced after pre-empt).



18% of 80K bopd = 14.4K, or 85% is Jubilee production.
11% of 20K bopd = 2.2K, or 15% TEN production.


At above guesstimate ratios KOS Jubilee cost was $468m, TEN $82m

Applying that to TLW's w/int

38.9/18.0 x $468m = $1011m

54.8/11.0 x $82m = $408m

Basically $1.5bn for TLW Ghana. Or let's say somewhere between $1bn and $1.5bn given subsequent TEN downgrade.

[xxnjr] 19/4/2023 12:16

New TIP (Incentive Plan) up for vote at the next AGM. Comparator companies change

Out go (company/M Cap):

Aker BP $15.9bn
APA $11.2bn
DNO $940m
Genel Energy $385m
Santos $15.4bn

In are:

BW Energy $650m
Diversified Energy $1.1bn
Maurem et Prom $735m

You can see the direction of aspirational travel! What have we in common with

DE which is a US shale company operating 1000's, or even 10,000's of stripper wells churning out about 5, 10, or whatever bopd per well?

BW Energy will have exceptionally high CAPEX going forwards as developing new FPSO led fields in Brazil and Namibia.

M et P. French outfit with late life mature assets about 20Kbopd.

What a motley selection of incoming comparator companies! Presumably to make it easier for execs to receive bonuses.

These core companies thankfully remain in the comparator group.

Africa Oil
Capricorn
Energean
Enquest
Harbour Energy
Kosmos Energy
Pharos Energy
Seplat Energy

The rules governing the TIP are changing too. Can't say I understand them yet. But at least we can vote yes/no once the relevant pre-agm doc gets published.

I will probably vote against as I believe Rahul is paid far too much for below average performance given share price lower than when he started. tbh I don't think Rahul should be entitled to any bonus at all but we seem to live in a world where execs get rewarded for value destruction.

[xxnjr] 19/4/2023 10:06

May 9th KOS 1st qtr results announced.

(would anticipate some pretty weak production numbers out of Ghana)

[mcsean2164] 18/4/2023 22:12

You may need to ask advfn, I can't understand it anyway....



This week, SPR inventory dropped for the third week in a row losing another 1.6 million barrels for the week to reach 368 million barrels—the lowest amount of crude oil in the SPR since October 1983.

The price of WTI was trading down on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release, but still hovering above $80 per barrel due to OPEC+’s surprise announcement that it plans to cut even more crude oil production—1.6 million bpd—starting in May. Brent crude was also trading down on the day.

It seems OPEC moving away from the US?

[xxnjr] 18/4/2023 09:30

Can some genius explain why ADVFN show net debt as 4,094m in their financials tab which is here



is that £, or $?

and what are the liabilities that more than double reported net debt which is about $1.9bn?

According to ADVFN their "Net Debt, is defined as total liabilities minus cash & equivalents. The formula is the following and the figures are expressed in millions:

= total liabilities - cash & equivalents"

[xxnjr] 17/4/2023 22:08

Ah! sorry mis-read your earlier post mcs. Getting back to 64p would require a miracle on TEN (unlikely), the new JSE wells to average >9k a well for a year (who knows?) and the oil price to be closer to $100 (who knows).

Whatever happens, debt will increase this 1st half which is a bit of a worry.

[mcsean2164] 17/4/2023 21:03

Dorothy took over in December 2019.



Share price was 64p then.... Amazing only a couple of months before it was £2.05. The company has been destroyed.

[bones698] 17/4/2023 17:48

Debt is and still remains the biggest risk here and they have failed to being it down enough while oil prices were high .
Simple calculation is what would the assets sell for now . I doubt it would cover the debts be a use of the fall off and constant costs to keep production at reasonable levels .

They wrongly riled the dice on lifting production wasting hundreds of millions that could have gone towards debts .

Picked the wrong plays and exited the ones that they should have kept . Can't see any positive news from what they have left really .
If and when oil prices start to drift lower the shareprice will fall with them and then the real trouble starts here as servicing debt becomes a much bigger issue .