Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 21/3/2023 09:21

None of this matters. Sp will be 30p plus for no reason this month

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 22:10

Bond market not convinced as the 2025 $800m 7%'s seem to have today closed at a 33 month low of 59.4% i.e now lower than when Rahul assumed control.

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 21:33

"Management must take the pain too; pay rises share options perks should be frozen and all costs cut to the bone. This is the reality and the price of failure, I feel we must only reward in good times."

Well said SS.

I guess that is why I sent my q's in. It was the fact that Rahul is hoovering up $m's in basic salary + 2X, or 3X more on top, without actually having solved many of the issues. Not to mention he's also made some serious errors of judgement on the way. Sure pay Rahul basic salary. But the 2X on top simply isn't merited. If we get out of this mess and the company survives and the share price gets back to £2.00 then OK let's give Rahul a massive bonus.

[subsurface] 20/3/2023 20:28

In my own little way did try to tell Rahul.
12th September 2020
Dear Mr Dhir,
First let me welcome you to Tullow Oil . you have taken up the position at a very difficult time and unprecedented market conditions ,so let me wish you every success in your new post.
The paradigm has changed for Tullow, we are no longer in an expansion mode but in a survival mode Previous management failure and poor risk management have brought us to the situation we face today. Though we can give credit for the hedge policy.
A good company has been brought to its knees along with its reputation.
We have before us a double headed monster debt and the fact that our Ghana gas export flow can be curtailed at a whim with devastating effect on our cash flow with little we can do about it.
I feel these are the problems that we need to address. Name plate capacity for our two FPSO,s targeted and associated gas export assured ,at full production a gas contract .or take or pay ?
We cannot run a business begging the government to take Gas, how can we invest with confidence?
Previous management failed to look at full cycle and thought they could give the gas free and put the problem on to Ghana Gas that has proved a failed Strategy.
Raising Cash
Being able to sell or not sell assets if we don’t get what we want is a luxury, but one we cannot afford attitude needs to change this is the price we pay for failure. We should be happy with what we can get in these difficult times until the debt reaches manageable levels and the company survival is assured.
Management must take the pain too pay rises share options perks should be frozen and all costs cut to the bone. This is the reality and the price of failure, I feel we must only reward in good times.
Aiden used to say Tullow is for the long term! The long term shareholders have been decimated over many years.
These are my thoughts on how to start to restore confidence and save Tullow before it is too late.
.I sincerely hope the next time I write it will be to congratulate you on a job well done.
Yours Sincerely

[badger36] 20/3/2023 15:19

What of the Geologists. Those clowns have nothing but water and sulphur. Have they been ousted ?

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 14:37

Suspect Rahul underestimated how bad things were here before he took the job. Rahul has proven he's very good at running an operating company. But he doesn't seem to have a plan for escaping the debt other than hoping the OP will be $100/bbl for eternity.

Much of todays talk was just waffle about future catalysts that may not happen.

Kenya no one believes it, including the partners (Total and Africa Oil).

$40m contingent payments on asset sales unlikely to be received in my view as some well results disappointing and production likely to remain below thresholds.

TEN Plan of Development if it happens will be smaller than envisioned (whatever the vision is).

If OP remains low EBITDAX ratios will shoot back up again and debt may not reduce.

At least he's finally admitted they aren't going to spend any money on Guyana.

Rahul has lost credibility for previously projecting TEN could produce at 50K. The CNE debacle. etc etc. Felt he was a bit detached from reality today

Whilst he has purchased a small number of shares, the 9m deferred on appointment + 2m TIP shares since, are mainly coming out of our pockets. Agree with the line of questioning on the call. "Why don't the directors buy shares in the company?".....Guess they don't believe in their own projections and future maybe catalysts.

[mcsean2164] 20/3/2023 14:05

It's disappointing that no institutional investors have tried to oust Rahul. I honestly don't know if we're better of with or without him but the fact that there are no activist investors is really disappointing. Surely he's at least somewhat engaged with all his shares. The mind boggles.

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 11:43

SS - don't see how they can simply repeat the results presentation as oil price assumptions in that are pure fantasy now.

[subsurface] 20/3/2023 11:16

Thanks for that XX,very interesting to see what they say.
Not sure what urgent action they can take thus far, little interest has been shown in our assets.
Investor confidence is at an all time low,Risk management should be at the heart of every management decision.

[jugears] 20/3/2023 11:06

xxnjr, The only question you need to ask is when the entire board are going to resign, absolute shambles all of them!

[xxnjr] 20/3/2023 10:58

Here are my hastily written Q's. Rahul will understand them but I doubt if they will get an airing today.

1. Why didn't the company take advantage of recent very high oil prices to hedge more of 2024 production with a view to protecting our capacity to repay debt and avoid bankruptcy?

[11,305 bopd of 2024 is hedged at $55 and no hedges have been added since Q4/2021]

2. Uniquely for a highly indebted E&P, the company has employed a contrarian strategy of prioritising production growth over reducing debt. When our CEO assumed control Jubilee was producing 90,830 bopd and TEN 48,854 bopd. Currently production is c.72,500 bopd on Jubilee and c.22,000 bopd on TEN. Has the production growth strategy failed so far? And what confidence can we have that new JSE wells "will produce at 10K to 15K" as per CMD Pres material?

3. Why is it that the targets in the TIP are set so low that CEO's routinely gain 2X awards for average company outcomes. And why are the production triggers in TIP materially below production projections mentioned in company presentations. Kindly return the comparator index to E&P as moving to FTSE could be considered as gaming the system to deliver higher awards to our CEO's.

And may I suggest the company takes urgent action to prioritise debt repayment otherwise company will go bankrupt!

[mcsean2164] 20/3/2023 10:33

If I recall correctly, there was a belief a while back that Rahul had steadied the ship. Was this just nonsense?

POO is pretty weird lately I guess due to the war?

OECD stocks seem to be significantly down.



hTtps://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-march-2023/

And yet crude is down considerably, this could be a bumpy year!
Should Rahul be out on his ear?

[badger36] 20/3/2023 10:15

Good man Rahul. Complete destruction of the company and paid for it

[subsurface] 19/3/2023 10:14

Drilling to stand still, perhaps to arrest decline in production on Jubilee and Ten.

Another example

Millions paid in bonuses to UK Silicon Valley Bank staff days after £1 rescue

[xxnjr] 19/3/2023 09:33

Yes stupid decision to prioritise production growth over debt repayment. There hasn't been any sustained production growth so far and debt is far too high and will go even higher in the first half. Can't possibly see why Rahul has seemingly been awarded a large bonus again this year.

[bones698] 19/3/2023 06:16

Oil tipped to hit $40 a Barrell due to recession . That will hurt tlw and they should have used the profits to pay down debt a lot more agressively when they had the chance .this will continue to fall with oil prices .debt pule has always been a massive burden and the management didn't use the high oil prices to pay it down quick enough when they had the chance

[xxnjr] 18/3/2023 23:13

JSE subsea construction in full swing now

BE 804 has been on location for a while now
hTTps://www.bourbonoffshore.com/sites/default/files/2021-07/bourbon_evolution_800.pdf

And Skandi Africa has just arrived
hTTp://www.dof.no/en-GB/DOF-Fleet/CSV/Skandi-Africa#:~:text=Skandi%20Africa%20is%20an%20environmentally,Basic%20and%20ICE%2D1B%20notations.

[kulvinder] 17/3/2023 11:59

The top brass are not bothered with the likes of the us small time share holders, unfortunately it is no longer a stock market like it use to be, as any news flow was slow in the past, these days with all the financial channels like Bloomberg and Twitter etc, it far too easy to cause panic and fear among small investors like us and for the market makers to manipulate the price up and down at will, coupled by all the algorithms.

[xxnjr] 17/3/2023 11:54

The Shell guy also gets bonus. That will probably bump his remuneration up to £5m for 2023. But that's ok as their profit last year was $42,874m! Yes. $43 billion.

TLW only made $49m, or 85/10000th of Shell.

Based on Shell, pro-rata Rahul should receive £5,800 per annum.
Obviously not enough. But clearly £1.5m to £3m is way too much for a business thats barely able to maintain output at the bottom of the Capital Markets Range; which was 60K to 80K bopd over 10 yrs. The targets in the Tullow Incentive Plan are set so low it means the CEO gets a 2X bonus for poor outcomes.

[badger36] 17/3/2023 11:51

They will screw shareholders with total impunity. Listed companies are now just an opportunity for the top brass to steal under the guise of executive and board decision making. When they have evaporated shareholder value they sell the remainder and join the board of the new entity and rinse and repeat

[spacedust] 17/3/2023 11:37

If me and my wife collectively work our entire lives say 45yrs we still won't earn what this chap is earning 1 yr

So his 1 yr is greater than 90yrs of salary

[crazi] 17/3/2023 10:43

He is definitely overpaid if he gets £3M...

Shell CEO is in all fairness underpaid. BP CEO is on something like £13M last year - crazy money

Oil edging up again...

[xxnjr] 17/3/2023 08:38

Same number of TIP share awards as last year. Kind of implies his remuneration will be similar to 2021 when Rahul's total remuneration was £1,860,806. Base pay was £580,000 + Bonus Cash £580,000 + Deferred Shares Approx £606,798 + Pensions £87,000 + Taxable Benefits £7,000. That was for a bad year of under achievement. In a 'good' year Rahul could receive over £3,000,000.

Plus we gave him 9,000,000 share options when he joined the company to compensate for loosing his options from a previous employer. But as his previous employer was Delonex which effectively failed under Rahul one presumes those options ought to have been worthless!

hTTps://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_corporate-strategy/2020/10/07/how-warburg-pincus--prized-delonex-energy-crumbled-under-new-tullow-ceo-s-rule,109611795-eve

How Warburg Pincus' prized Delonex Energy crumbled under new Tullow CEO's rule

".....things soon went from bad to worse for the junior oil firm Delonex Energy. Under Rahul Dhir, who left in July to take over the helm of Tullow Oil"

Ever wondered how much the CEO of Shell earns?

According to Shell's Annual Report

"Wael Sawan was appointed as CEO on January 1, 2023, on a salary of £1,400,000. No increases are anticipated during 2023."

If you think Rahul remuneration is too high, or bad value for money then consider sending in a Q to Mondays Webinair:-

hTTps://www.yellowstoneadvisory.com/events

[mcsean2164] 16/3/2023 16:51

I think we have Dorothy to thank for the interest rate. Goosed. Just looking forward to closing out my shares at some point. I think 60p would reflect a 50% loss, I don't see it as unachievable and will look to exit around them. That's some cheek from Rahul and likely to be worth a lot more. Some reward for sweet fa.