Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 25/5/2023 09:15

Thank goodness 19 was blocked.

19. To authorise the Company to purchase its own shares, pursuant to section 701 of the Companies Act 2006 (the Act) (within the meaning of section 693(4) of the Act) on such terms and in such manner as the Board of Directors of the Company may from time to time determine

Pity they didn't have something similar for bonds

[3windy] 24/5/2023 16:56

927,205 looks like a buy

[xxnjr] 24/5/2023 16:01

All resolutions passed with c.99% of votes cast, except for

re-elect Phuthuma Nhleko: 89% for.

re-elect Roald Goethe: 94% for.

and strangely; to authorise the Company to purchase its own shares: only 73% for.

[farrugia] 24/5/2023 14:27

this is interesting

Africa Oil, TotalEnergies walk away from Lokichar licence

[badger36] 24/5/2023 13:10

Must be awful for them to let such a buying opportunity pass them by. Seems this bunch are so smug that they can't even deign to give a credible response

[xxnjr] 24/5/2023 12:58

There was a Q about why Directors haven't been buying shares. Not entirely convinced by the answer "We couldn't as we've been in a closed period due to CNE Merger, etc, blah, blah....."

Rahul said "He was a shareholder too" but that's only because the company insisted he bought 1.3m shares which cost him about £365K as a prerequisite to being appointed. In exchange he received options over 9m shares, 3m of which are Nil(zero cost options).

If someone said to you "Buy 1.3m and we'll give you another 3m free" you'd jump at the opportunity. And "on top we'll pay you £1.2m to £1.5m a yr in cash + give you another £1.2m to £1.5m a yr in deferred shares".

Our CEO now has entitlement to 13.2m shares. Only purchased 10% of those, rest are either deferred pay or options exercisable at 0p, 25.6p and 51.2p if he's still with the company.

I have no info on the recent board appointment who owns shares. But the only board member, recently retired, who stumped up meaningful cash is now sitting on a loss of 90%, about £200K out of pocket.

[badger36] 24/5/2023 11:10

Guess any positive comments are welcome at this stage. Can't look a gift horse in the mouth I suppose whatever about the limp

[xxnjr] 24/5/2023 10:47

"We have refreshed our price target for the first time in six years."

6 yrs ago share price was £2+.
It then dropped to 7p, yet Davy didn't adjust their share price target?.......

[badger36] 24/5/2023 10:32

Well if we get fifty percent of the Davy PT we will be happy "Davy ViewTullow Oil has released a statement ahead of its AGM later today. The company has maintained full year guidance, with production and cashflows set to be stronger in the second half of the year – in line with expectations and the timing of capital investments. We have also refreshed our forecasts and price target.FY2023 production guidance maintainedIn the AGM statement, Tullow confirmed that net production in Q1 was 53,700 bopd. Full year guidance is maintained at 58,000-64,000 bopd (Davy: 61,000). Within this, the net production at Jubilee in Q1 was 28,100 and will ramp up from this level through the year from new wells drilled. We are optimistic on the potential exit rate at year-end. Performance at TEN and in the non-operated portfolio was in line with expectations. There is potential upside from gas sales in Ghana at TEN and from a possible farm-out of its increased exposure in Kenya. We view these as essentially free call options in the investment case. The company successfully executed a swap deal in Gabon that enhances Tullow's exposure to preferred fields. Meanwhile, it retains high confidence in its tax arbitration case in Ghana. The resolution of this will be closely watched by both debt and equity investors.Updated forecastsWe have updated our forecasts, which are now based on a Brent oil price of $75/bbl in 2023, $80/bbl in 2024 and $85/bbl in 2025. The net effect of the changes is movement of less than 5% in revenues, adjusted EBITDAX and net debt. We expect net debt:EBITDAX in 2023 of 1.4x. On our new forecasts, the stock trades on a P/E of 1.0x and EV/EBITDA of 1.7x.New price targetWe have refreshed our price target for the first time in six years. Our new target is 100p. This is based on a ten-year net present value (NPV) of $3.8bn less net debt at end-2022 of $1.9bn. This NPV is close to the level of $3.9bn that was reported by TRACS, which independently audited the company's assets at year-end. It also excludes any value for Tullow's significant 2C contingent resources. The market is applying a discount to the NPV as the company's listed bonds trade at discounts to par due to uncertainty regarding the repayment/refinancing of these bonds.

[dros1] 24/5/2023 09:38

2025 bond plunged today by 7%

[badger36] 24/5/2023 09:00

Guess it's like an expensive divorce. Cheaper in long run if one partner is a spendthrift

[xxnjr] 24/5/2023 08:46

As for today; It's a very cleverly worded statement.

The only news item; good initial flow rates on that Jubilee Main Field well. But could have and should have done much better if they had brought that on-line early in 1Q.

[xxnjr] 24/5/2023 08:45

Owning 0% of nothing increased Africa Oil shares by 8% yesterday.

[farrugia] 24/5/2023 08:29

do they get all that production net or do they have to split it up with a partner?

[999rp] 24/5/2023 07:57

and we go back up again

[thommie] 24/5/2023 07:46

That jubilee well at 17k bopd is really one of the seldom positives. Ofc thats flush production, so dont expect it to stay there, but at that initial rate it's highly likely it will produce at around 8000-10000 bopd for the rest of the year.I dont know why Total and Africa oil gave up their share of kenya, but it could turn out to be positive for tullow in the end. As tlw wont keep more than 25-30% of the project, getting 50% for free, means they can accept worse offers from strategic partners for a full carry than they were willing before and still keep their formerly planned stake in the project. If they would outfarm 75% for a full carry on the remaining 25% stake that would be quite phenomenal. That would give 30 000 bopd in 4-5 years for no capex costs.

[farrugia] 24/5/2023 07:35

do they get all that production net or do they have to split it up with a partner?

[subsurface] 24/5/2023 07:33

The first of five Jubilee wells to be brought onstream this year, came online in the past few days at initial rates of c.17,000 bopd, above expectations.

[subsurface] 23/5/2023 23:49

Well said mcsean you could look at it this way
we had 50% of nothing now we have 100% of nothing.

[boston 004] 23/5/2023 22:10

Peel Hunt Broker recommendation, BUY with new 80p target

[mcsean2164] 23/5/2023 20:02

It is funny, the first bit of potentially positive news is our partners abandoning our asset...