Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 02/5/2023 16:15

Any idea if tullow is going bust? I find it hard to believe we're back at 26p...

[xxnjr] 02/5/2023 10:45

Wouldn't get too excited by my post above. It's important to appreciate that "JSE" is a number of different accumulations and by and large separate to Jubilee main field. Revisiting an old 2010 capital markets presentation on Ghana

Four wells have been drilled into JSE

"M-3, M-4, MD-2 & M-5

• Hydrocarbons in at least seven zones
• Seismic data, well results and pressure
data used to delineate reservoirs

Greater development challenge than Jubilee Unit Area

• Appraisal programme complete (M-3, M-4, MD-2 & M5)
• Net sand thicknesses reduced
• Reservoir quality and fluids broadly similar to Unit Area
• Multiple thin intervals and smaller compartments
• Likely higher well count than Unit Area
• Producer to injector pairings likely (e.g. re-use M4 and M5 wells?)"

So there's less Net Pay, thinner Intervals and smaller compartments (oil pools) than Jubilee main field.

Given above which suggests "JSE" wells may be less productive and seemingly weak 2023 1H production, averaging 95K bopd as per 2023Yr forecast on Jubilee would be impressive but at the same time challenging.

[ariane] 02/5/2023 07:36

Tullow signs asset swap deal with Perenco to optimise assets in Gabon

Oil & GasUpstreamConventional

By NS Energy Staff Writer 01 May 2023

Tullow Gabon will assign and transfer certain of its existing participating stakes in Limande, Turnix, Moba, Oba and Simba assets to Perenco, in exchange for the latter’s existing participating stakes in the Kowe and DE8 assets
maria-lupan-hy97yy3e03A-unsplash(2)

Tullow enters asset swap deal with Perenco. (Credit: Maria Lupan on Unsplash)

UK-based oil and gas company Tullow Oil, through its subsidiary Tullow Oil Gabon, has signed an asset swap agreement with Perenco Oil and Gas Gabon, a unit of Anglo-French oil and gas company Perenco.

The agreement involves the cashless exchange of certain Gabonese licences between the two parties and is expected to optimise Tullow’s asset portfolio.

Tullow Gabon will assign and transfer certain of its existing participating stakes in Limande, Turnix, Moba, Oba and Simba assets to Perenco.

In exchange, Perenco will assign and transfer certain of its existing participating stakes in the Kowe and DE8 assets to Tullow.

The transaction is expected to complete by the end of this year, subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, including customary governmental and regulatory approvals.

Tullow Oil chief executive officer Rahul Dhir said: “This deal is an example of Tullow’s strategy in action as we continue to take proactive steps to optimise our portfolio to focus on high return producing assets and growth opportunities around existing infrastructure.

“Our Gabon assets are a valuable and important part of our asset base, and this transaction enhances our exposure to preferred fields. We look forward to working closely with our Partner to maximise their full potential.”

Tullow said that the transaction is in line with its strategy of expanding the important producing assets, low-risk exploration, and appraisal, around existing infrastructure.

The asset swap agreement will improve the balance between discovered resources, appraisal, and exploration assets in its Gabon portfolio.

It will strengthen Tullow’s position in the Kowe licence that contains the Tchatamba infrastructure, which will support potential developments in the future.

The Tchatamba complex includes three fields, Tchatamba Marin, Tchatamba South and Tchatamba West, located about 30kms offshore Gabon within water depths of around 50m.

In addition, the transaction will strengthen Tullow’s position in the Simba licence where several low-risk assets are located adjacent to infrastructure for near-term drilling programmes.

The Simba field is located about 25km west of the Tchatamba fields. It was discovered in 2003 by Simba-1 and is produced using Simba-2 well, a single crestal oil producer drilled and completed in December 2018.

[xxnjr] 28/4/2023 10:48

The 3 JSE construction vessels are still fully engaged offshore Ghana. According to the 2023 plan

3 JSE oil wells on-line
1 main field oil well on-line
1 main field w/inj on-line
1 JSE w/inj on-line

Quite a lot of wells. Hopefully sooner than later!

[xxnjr] 28/4/2023 07:54

From todays rns

"This deal is an example of Tullow's strategy in action....."

"Tullow's 2023 Group production guidance of 58,000 to 64,000 bopd and cash flow guidance of c.$200 million at $100/bbl remains unchanged."

[xxnjr] 28/4/2023 07:41

Don't wanna make a bones about it but debt was $1.86bn at 31/12/2022!

[bones698] 28/4/2023 07:40

A little impact RNs ,no increase in output even after the swap . So they gave spent months working on this yet it provides little additional value if any . They have far higher priorities than this . Management are clueless . Glad I don't hold

[bones698] 28/4/2023 06:25

Simple info is debts are 1.6bn and they spent a fortune trying to increase production but failed miserably when that money could have gone to paying off debt . Now the fields are struggling to maintain production levels which will make servicing the debt more difficult never mind paying it off .

The value of the assets has or will at some point get downgraded due to lower production .

The management have messed up that's why the shareprice is falling and with limited options to pay down the debt things look grim . Only a sale of some assets to pay down debt looks likely but at what price . I suspect that any sale would come in far below book value and reduce output which would mean the debts would kill the company with not enough revenue to pay it off .

End of the day this is in a mess because management didn't pay off the debts but instead tried to increase production wasting a lot of money . Now it's looking pretty dire and would expect to see a sale just to keep the company going unless oil prices rocket to over 120 a barrel this doesn't look likely .

I did say this was heading lower months ago and think there is worse to come.

[xxnjr] 27/4/2023 21:49

Thanks for posting that dros1.



"Following the roll out of the investment plan in 2021, daily average production in the jubilee field has risen from 74.9 kbopd to 83.6 kbopd as of the end of 2022"

Sounds good but that is the average bopd for the year. Not the exit rate.

What the PIAC report actually says is

"Total reconciled [Jubilee] oil and associated gas produced
from January to December 2022 stood at
30,523,813.00 bbl and 68,481.76 MMSCF at
average rates of 83,626.88 bbl/d and 187.62
MMSCF/D respectively"

[dros1] 27/4/2023 17:06

Oil production on the rise in the Jubilee field
hxxps://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Oil-production-on-the-rise-in-the-Jubilee-field-1756409

[hsfinch] 27/4/2023 09:05

Not that low. But this is a company run for the benefit of management and staff. Shareholders should demand a review of inflated salaries, bonuses, redundancy terms and more. Commensurate with the utterly woeful share price performance here. Probably won't happen though.

[xxnjr] 27/4/2023 08:05

It would be helpful to have more granularity on JSE. When exactly are the first well(s) coming on stream. May? June? July? August? Is it one well start up? 2 well start up? Or what? Haven't got a clue.

[xxnjr] 25/4/2023 23:24

Latest available Jubilee monthly production data from Petrocom:

2022 July through to Dec

90,787 July
88,679
87,265
83,912
83,052
75,571 Dec 2022 (the last month Petrocom have data for)

Subsequent tanker loadings suggest Jubilee could even be closer to 70K now. (Assumes cargoes approx 950K bbls which is slightly conservative but in the ball park)

[badger36] 25/4/2023 16:40

You should have held off This is like a dying declaration All hope of recovery has vanished

[xxnjr] 25/4/2023 14:52

You are anticipating about 20K bopd more than I am for the 1H Jubilee ave.
(unless I've misunderstood your post bootycall)

[bootycall] 25/4/2023 13:00

I have just purchased more shares today. I am concerned by the share price performance but the cash flow fundamentals are just too strong. I anticipate average Jubilee production rising from just under 95kbpd in the 1H to 110kbpd gross in the 2H, once Jubilee South East ties in.
We will have to wait on the development plan for the Ten field which is my biggest disappointment, however, production could easily exceed 30kbpd gross post a few infill wells by 2025.

I believe the spurious branch profits tax claim by the Government of Ghana will be rejected out of hand…as it flouts the stabilisation clauses in the PSC. In fact I would go so far as to say that the IMF will frown on refinancing countries that try to renege on such agreements as they are a disincentive to attracting inward investment.

AntonVB has posted some interesting links on the LSE thread regarding progress on the Kenya FDP…which I believe has every chance of gaining approval over the next 3 months …although I would question their choice of development partner.

Lastly, regarding a gas agreement in Ghana for non and associated gas,. Any gas sales will reduce the need for gas re injection and this will be a great help to Tullow. I am expecting the Company to come up with something better in terms of the pricing than the 50c per mscufs …but we will have to wait to ascertain how we should value this new potential income stream.

Lastly, all the action will probably occur, when the existing bonds have their debt maturities extended by two to three years.

In summary, the bears seem to have ground you all down, just as the worm is turning.
At least I can say I tried to warn you all. Booty


PLEASE DO NOT RELY ON THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THE ABOVE POST WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

[lyreco1] 25/4/2023 11:23

Always amazes me how being a CEO is the only job on the planet that pays millions for continuing mega failure.

Our CEO would win a world cup for appalling performance and laid back attitude counting his Wonga.

[xxnjr] 25/4/2023 07:33

Our former CFO is now an NED at IOG. IOG has a knack of drilling wells that don't pan out as planned. share price has collapsed there but I wish him well.

[alfiex] 24/4/2023 22:20

Give the bloke a chance he's not dead yet lol

[hsfinch] 24/4/2023 20:38

Aidan Heavy must be turning in his grave.

[badger36] 24/4/2023 14:11

We let the fox into the henhouse it seems. Drifting downwards to a point of capitulation. How is it that from Capricorn to drilling, decision making on offloading have all proven in hindsight to be adverse to the interests of shareholders and yet the executives remain in place ?