Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 06/4/2023 14:13

Problem is they unacceptable and are ruining it as a private slush fund Big notions from yesterday still permeate with concomitant pay rates as if it was the "giant" it once pretended to be on borrowed money

[xxnjr] 06/4/2023 13:28

Don't have one. Just a bit of common sense ;-)

[thommie] 06/4/2023 13:23

Mine as well. Btw whats your profession? :)

[mcsean2164] 06/4/2023 13:10

xxjnr, you have my vote for CEO.

[xxnjr] 06/4/2023 10:35

If I were running the company I would exit Cote d'Ivoire exploration and sell off our interest in the producing Espoir field there. Cancel the TEN FPSO in Ghana which costs $75m to $90m a yr to lease and either (1) produce whichever TEN wells produce meaningful amounts via the JUB FPSO, or (2) sell off all of our stake in TEN for a pittance. Exit S. America including Guyana completely. Sell off Kenya for a pittance. Reduce the headcount and get rid of the expensive luxury offices in Chiswick. No executive bonus's to be paid until EBITDAX ratio = 0.5X at $60 oil.

We would then be left with OK mature assets in Gabon and a highly profitable field in Jubilee. Hopefully enough profit to pay down bulk of the debt. At some point if cash permitted; buy some mature assets being divested by a major in a deal that would involve a meaningful initial carry from the major and the major retaining 95% of future DECOM liabilities.

[badger36] 06/4/2023 09:42

Utterly corrupt or incompetent. Which is worse. Bleeding it dry with wildcat drilling and incapable of evaluating results before or after. All we found in SA was sulphur and all the hype. McDaid and the rest jumped ship loaded with cashDhir and his cronies are bleeding it dry and the Capricorn deal was enough to have him kicked out the door but he still there together with a handful of toadies

[subsurface] 06/4/2023 09:31

Rahul once said it does not make sence to be in Argentina surrounded by supermajors,
I was expecting them to exit they can not cope with what they have.

Focus on Cote de ivoire is my bet they plan to drill in 2024.

Often wondered why they did not sell the Namibian asset rights.

[alfiex] 06/4/2023 09:21

Tullow has lost its way big time.Like you say xxnjr why not wait for drill results in namibia after being there for years. Just giving assets away for free. Kenya same as Uganda probably never happen. No wonder why share price is just drifting away with nothing else to look forward to. Heavey, Mcdade and co didn't always get it right but took a chance and thats what we need here

[badger36] 06/4/2023 08:49

These guys are simply clueless

[xxnjr] 06/4/2023 08:28

Tullow was expected to exit prospective South American blocks, but now it wants partners

Chief executive aims to attract partners for frontier acreage after failing to do just that on coveted Namibia block

5 April 2023 18:21 GMT UPDATED 6 April 2023 6:36 GMT
By Iain Esau in London

Tullow Oil remains committed to maintaining a presence in frontier exploration acreage offshore South America, but will reduce its exposure by bringing in partners, according to chief executive Rahul Dhir.

This exploration strategy calls into question why a similar approach was not taken last year for a promising offshore block in Namibia’s Orange basin that Tullow decided to exit just weeks before Shell and TotalEnergies announced their major Venus and Graff oil discoveries.

The Orange basin is now the world’s hottest exploration play and Tullow could have had its pick of potential partners drawn to the acreage’s adjacency to TotalEnergies’ licence and done so at little or no extra cost.
================================================================================

I sent TLW IR an email about this in August last year.

Q: "According to Upstream Chevron are about to farm in to the block immediately N of Total's Venus find. That seems to be the block we gave up.

Rahul had previously, in answer to an Analyst on a results call, suggested our exploration department regarded 2813B as non-prospective, as a different play type. The rest of the industry takes a different view; i.e the block is extremely high potential.

What is difficult to understand is the timing of the exit decision, given everybody knew Venus was a giant prospect. Total spud on 1/12/2021 and announced the find on 24/2/2022. We exited in Jan 2022. Why on earth didn't we wait to see the outcome of their well?"

A: Although the recent discoveries in the area are positive, they don’t significantly de-risk our previous acreage in Namibia. Venus is approximately c.50km from our old licence and we only had 2D seismic, so there would have very likely been plenty of work to be done before we had a drill decision.

We have a well defined portfolio of profitable investment opportunities and a clear strategy to increase capital allocation towards producing assets. The exploration team is focused on maturing near-field and infrastructure-led exploration (ILX) opportunities around our existing producing fields, to unlock additional value from the Group’s asset base.

This is the most serious mistake Rahul has made and cost us Big Money as Chevron paid a lot to enter that block as it contains a huge Albian age super fan with similar characteristics to Venus. Despite this child like error he still received a massive bonus that year!

And maybe this apparent deviation in strategy now is the first admission that; in field/near field/ILX outcomes haven't matched the sales spiel trotted out to the bond investors when TLW refinanced? And why get bogged down in Argentina which is a governance nightmare and a 16hr flight from London. BA is a nice city though! And then it's another days travelling to get to Tierra del Fuego where the blocks are at the other end of the planet!

Incidentally TLW gave up the Falklands which we poured money into as it was "Too Far Away".

What's wrong with something closer to home like well governed Norway? Oh we gave that up years ago before Rahul entered the door.

[xxnjr] 06/4/2023 01:52

Rough guesstimate they have 42.5K hedged through to May and 28.5K for rest of 2023.

[subsurface] 05/4/2023 10:27

A change in the Hedge position from May.

At 31 December 2022, Tullow’s hedge portfolio provides downside protection for 64% of forecast production entitlements through to May
2023 and 40% for a further 12 months to May 2024 with $55/bbl floors and weighted average sold calls of $75/bbl.

[bones698] 05/4/2023 09:31

Oil prices rising helping lift this a bit but only a temporary reprieve . Perhaps if they use this second chance to severely pay down the debts unlike first time they might actually see light at the end of the tunnel but I'd they do like last time and try upping production and failing miserably and not paying off the debts as much as possible then this will get hammered when prices drop .

[xxnjr] 04/4/2023 10:04

If you say so :)

All I would suggest is that sentiment is poor, as driven by

Cash: There isn't any as Net Debt is -$1.9bn!
Profit: There isn't any as company has lost -$2.86bn over last 5 yrs!
Revenue: Dependent on Oil Price.
Oil Price: Currently at lower end of forecast range to generate free cash flow.

But I get what you are saying which is basically; after a short term crash you may get a short term bounce.

[spacedust] 04/4/2023 09:45

Opec news didn't to shttt all. Proves my points completely that the follw8ng don't make any differnce to the share price in short term

Cash
Profit
Revenue
Price of oil

Sentiment is all that requires. Sp is doing the talking for me

[badger36] 04/4/2023 08:42

When your Mgt is absolute "*hite" what can we expect. Parasites and greediness sums them up.

[franky15] 04/4/2023 07:41

All being well we should be around 34-34.5p today a finish over 35p for Easter looks promising

[spacedust] 03/4/2023 08:29

Well without opec the share price went from 26p to 32p.

With opec 32 ro 33.5p

Enough said

[subsurface] 03/4/2023 08:25

Good call Franky15,
Spacedust should try Methane suppressants.

[xxnjr] 03/4/2023 00:11

well to be fair you also said

"Like I said
Cash
Profit revenue
Assets
Price of oil

None of the above matters short term."

as well as

"Anyway keep watching. I know you find it hard to believe but the oil price is down yet tallow share price is up.

Proves my point completely"

You now seem to be un-proving your point!

Incidentally Tallow is a rendered form of beef or mutton fat, primarily made up of triglycerides.

Good news on Saudi/OPEC/Russian production cut though. Happy Monday :)

[spacedust] 02/4/2023 23:50

I did say 38p in April. Now 8 think 45p in April

[franky15] 02/4/2023 23:20

This will be 33-34p tomorrow with op

[hades1] 02/4/2023 21:43

Understand how that benefits TLW short term but that will also sink the world economy.
Saudi now the West/Free World’s biggest enemy and lining up behind Russia.
First undermine the banking system (their comments to Bloomberg undermined CS) and now this keeps rates higher for longer with further inflation.
A perilous move by Saudi and UAE - Will prove to be a very costly error.
Eventually we will all pay the price.

[subsurface] 02/4/2023 17:14

Saudi Arabia and UAE slash oil output until 2024



hope POO stays over $80