Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[grupo guitarlumber] 11/3/2023 09:09

Heres hoping for a melt up

[kulvinder] 11/3/2023 00:40

Well done, at least you took a profit out of this...need it to get over 62p for that to happen for me.

[crazi] 10/3/2023 15:56

That's me sold the lot just over 34.22 for a nice profit...

Good luck

I will be back at the next opportunity

[xxnjr] 10/3/2023 14:58

would imagine they meant Brent price zingaro. they did suggest on the call that if oil prices weakened further some of their spend could be walked down but I guess a lot of CAPEX is already baked in.

[zingaro] 10/3/2023 14:00

xxjnr: when TLW talk about revenue vs oil price (@$80 and $90) do they mean the Brent price as I seem to remember that they get a premium to that of a few dollars?

[alfiex] 10/3/2023 12:18

Yes what a turnaround this is. Someone has made a lot of money, sadly not me

[badger36] 10/3/2023 10:56

This type of blatant manipulation at the open each morning can only be done with the knowledge and actions of the market maker. Looks very much like an attempt to keep frustration of longs as possible in hope of taking it on the cheap

[alfiex] 10/3/2023 08:06

Tullow down 5%

[xxnjr] 10/3/2023 08:05

OP back to $80.

[hubshank] 09/3/2023 22:09

Technical trading

[jugears] 09/3/2023 14:52

Manipulation!

[crazi] 09/3/2023 14:18

"how could the share price be marginally higher than in the middle of covid and much lower oil prices"...

The results were also positive. Crazy this is below 45p never mind 40p never mind 35p!

[xxnjr] 09/3/2023 13:25

Fair point about NYSE having higher multiples than LSE. OTOH and as mentioned yesterday Kosmos is on a higher multiple simply because they have visibility on 50% production growth over next 24 months, to be followed by further growth; phase 2 of tortue LNG FID in 2024/5 and more LNG developments to follow from yakaar/terranga (20TCF) and another large gas discovery I've forgotten the name of.

Kosmos have discovered a lot of gas. 30TCF to 50TCF gross. So much gas I've lost count.

Kosmos have signalled cash returns; buybacks and/or dividends starting from 2024. Tullow are a long way from that.

Don't be surprised if Rahul buys some mid-life asset in Nigeria at some point.

[alfiex] 09/3/2023 12:38

Copied from Lse board but shows how manipulated tullow ishTTps://mobile.twitter.com/Riccardino999/status/1633585672761098240

[xxnjr] 09/3/2023 10:37

There was a big impairment on TEN as anticipated

TEN Impairment (Ghana) b $380.6m
b. Revision of value based on revisions to reserves

[maywillow] 09/3/2023 09:44

Jam Tomorrow

Tullow Oil struggles to convince on Ghana-reliant debt-reduction plans

By David Whitehouse

Posted on Thursday, 9 March 2023 09:40


Tullow Oil’s full-year earnings left analysts unconvinced that the company has turned the corner on reducing its debt.

After-tax profit came to $49m versus a year-earlier loss of $81m, the company said in its full-year earnings presentation. Net debt at the end of 2022 fell to $1.864bn from $2.131bn a year earlier.

[the grumpy old men] 09/3/2023 07:58

Tullow submits new plan for Turkana oil fields


Thursday, March 09, 2023


Tullow Oil and its joint venture partners Total Energies and Africa Oil last week submitted a revised field development plan (FDP) to the government for approval, as the venture steps up its search for a strategic investor.


By
Brian Ambani

Nation Media Group

Tullow Oil and its joint venture partners Total Energies and Africa Oil last week submitted a revised field development plan (FDP) to the government for approval, as the venture steps up its search for a strategic investor.

The approval of the FDP—which will need to be ratified by Parliament —will enable the venture to get a government license to commence commercial drilling of crude oil in the 10BB and 13T oil blocks in Turkana County.

“Since January 1, 2022, there have been ongoing discussions with the government of Kenya on approval of the FDP and securing government deliverables. An updated FDP was submitted on March 3, 2023, and is being reviewed by the government of Kenya before ratification by the Kenyan Parliament,” said Tullow.


The country first announced the discovery of oil in March 2012.

The venture had been issued with a 15-month license extension from September 2020 to December 2021 on the condition that they would submit to the government an FDP that is technically and commercially viable for approval.

While the initial FDP was submitted in December 2021, the revised plan follows the revelation that the commercially recoverable oil from the reserves is significantly larger than previously estimated.
Revise production capacity

An audit by British petroleum consulting firm Gaffney, Cline & Associates led the firms to revise the production capacity of the oilfields to 120,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), up from previous estimates of 70,000 bpd.

This saw the revision of the FDP that has increased the size of the crude oil processing facility in Turkana and the size of the pipeline to evacuate the oil to Lamu, increasing the projected cost of the project from Sh319 billion to Sh377 billion.

The revised FDP also increased the diameter size of the planned Lokichar-Lamu crude oil pipeline from 18 inches to 20 inches to handle a higher product volume and drilling of additional exploration wells.

“The Group expects a production license to be granted once due government process has been completed,” said Tullow.

The Kenya oil project has faced long delays owing to uncertainty over access by the venture to land and water critical for oil drilling and laying of the oil pipeline. The firms have also been having cold feet over the project owing to uncertainties in the global crude oil market that could lead to low prices of the commodity, rendering it less commercially viable.

Media reports last year indicated that the Indian Oil Corporation is considering buying a stake in the venture, which would pump in significant cash that will give a new lease of life into the project.

The company is India’s largest oil refiner.

Tullow has previously attributed production delays to several factors, including unfavourable global oil prices, approval delays for land and water rights, a tax dispute and the Covid-19 pandemic.

[e-mail]

[ryad123] 09/3/2023 07:58

That would be a more sensible approach.

[cashandcard] 09/3/2023 07:39

I would suggest they need to sell what they can and clear some large chunks of that debt. There's value in the portfolio but it will never be realised, especially buried under all that debt. Hard to believe this was once worth Billions in marketcap. It's a shadow of itself and really offers prospective investors nothing for the future.Cash

[ryad123] 09/3/2023 06:09

The truth is there are far many better investments with less risks,gulf keystone delivered a lot of dividends in the past couple of years, if you can't make money at 85 dollars a barel then when? Why on earth would management make a 100 dollars a barel assumption for that will make many other oil companies even bigger profits, the debt level remains too high with no sign of going down, add to that the poor hedges, I mean between 55 and 75 dollars a barel, 55 dollars hedge give me a break, this dog of a company is run for the benefit of the bondholders and creditors not for equity holders, how could the share price be marginally higher than in the middle of covid and much lower oil prices, you have got to wonder if this is sheer incompetence by management or the company a zombie.

[xxnjr] 09/3/2023 01:19

Investors Chronicle. Tullow Oil (TLW) had a wild ride in 2022, finding a solution to its debt load through a merger with Capricorn Energy (CNE) that fell through after investor protest. Despite that drama, Tullow is back where it started, in debt terms, with borrowings down just 4 per cent from the end of 2021 to $2.47bn (£2.1bn).

Sales reflected the 40 per cent uptick in oil prices off the back of consistent production performance in the year, although a significant hedging programme has limited the exposure to prices above $75 a barrel. This year, over half of sales are hedged between $75 and $55 a barrel. This will drop to around a fifth of production in 2024.

Earnings remained subdued due to a higher tax bill and non-cash impairments of $381mn, although these were balanced out by a $197mn gain on the deal to take a greater stake in the Jubilee oil field. Free cash flow only saw a 9 per cent uptick on 2021, at $267mn. The company has forecast 2023 free cash of $100mn, with an average oil price of $80 a barrel.

Chief executive Rahul Dhir said 2023 would be the “year people stop worrying about the debt at Tullow”. Higher production will help this, although consensus forecasts see the company only making a dent in borrowings in 2024, as the bulk of it matures. The earnings outlook is flat as well, with Ebtida dropping from 2022 levels to $1.3bn in 2023 and 2024, as per the forecasts.

The heavy borrowings aside, Tullow is cheap for its production profile and assets. For investors keen on oil exposure and higher risk, this could be a good entry point. We are more circumspect given the sector’s volatility, however. Hold.

[crazi] 08/3/2023 18:57

The large "overdone" slice is the Corporate Brokers chunk of profit as they buy cheap now to sell higher later when they let the price rise back to reasonable levels...

[xxnjr] 08/3/2023 18:32

That one is easy to answer. KOS are forecasting 50% production growth over next 24 months mainly as a result of phase 1 Tortue FLNG coming on stream end of 2023. Plus a bit of extra from Jubilee and less exposure to TEN than Tullow. Then Tortue Phase 2, plus another 20 TCF after that or whatever in the development queue. Agree sell off here looks a bit overdone!

[bootycall] 08/3/2023 18:14

Oh the irony..from the second half of 2023 the company becomes massively cash flow positive …and everyone is starting to panic. Not sure what is go on in Kenya but Kosmos latest quarterly results were well received in the same acreage. Go figure ! Booty