Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 13/3/2023 15:36

No, as its factually correct. However whether investors believe a development has a realistic chance of actually happening is another matter!

[mccracken227] 13/3/2023 13:36

Could Tullow be misleading us here ref Kenya?Looking ahead, we have multiple catalysts to deliver further profitable growth. There is strong momentum across the portfolio with the commissioning of Jubilee South East on track for the second half of 2023, bringing undeveloped reserves online and Jubilee gross production to more than 100 kbopd before the end of the year. Engagements to secure a strategic partner for the Kenya development project continue and we are preparing a plan of development to monetise the remaining resources at TEN.

[badger36] 13/3/2023 12:09

Imagine these guys still drawing same pay and bonuses. As each day passes Capricorn must be in stitches

[zengas] 13/3/2023 12:01

Rest of article 13/3/23

"Africa Oil Corp deals blow to Tullow Oil's Kenya Turkana fields development plans

The Canadian firm Africa Oil Corp no longer believes it can find a partner willing to invest the considerable sums needed to extract crude in the northwest Turkana region and market it through the port of Lamu.

On 27 February, Africa Oil Corp dashed the Kenyan government's hopes of developing its crude in Turkana County, in the country's northwest. With no decision from Kenyan oil minister Davis Chirchir on the Field Development Plan on the horizon (AI, 22/02/23), the Canadian junior has decided to write off its entire 25% stake in blocks 10BB and 13T, where around 600 million barrels were discovered in 2012 by Tullow Oil. The British oil explorer is currently poring over a development plan for the deposits.

In its 2022 annual report, Africa Oil Corp reported a $170m non-cash loss due to the exceptional impairment of its Kenyan assets, which the company explained by the lack of certainty of a field development plan (FDP) being submitted for the project. Meanwhile, its operating partner Tullow released a contradictory statement in early March saying it had submitted an FDP on its own and was therefore still hopeful of going ahead.

Indian investors repelled

Led by Keith Hill, Africa Oil also backed its decision to declare impairment losses on its Kenyan assets by the length of time it took Indian firm ONGC to buy out Tullow Oil's shares. The company was planning to acquire 50% of the two licences in early 2022 with another Indian state-owned company, Oil of India. But both companies are said to have been put off by the cost of the project: an estimated $3bn to bring the fields into production and build a pipeline to the port of Lamu. The passivity of former president Uhuru Kenyatta's government and that of his successor William Ruto ended up putting them off them entirely.

The project cannot go ahead, however, without another investor on top of the project's current partners Tullow Oil, Africa Oil Corp and TotalEnergies. Tullow Oil and Africa Oil Corp do not possess sufficient resources, while TotalEnergies does not want to invest any further for now in this project, which it got involved in through its acquisition of Maersk Oil in 2017 but about which it was sceptical from the start.

The Ugandan oil from Tilenga that the French major is currently developing was initially supposed to transit through Kenya. But Total decided to go through the port of Tanga in Tanzania with the cooperation of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, after Kenyatta imposed high transit fees and the use of the port of Lamu close to the Somali border and the al Shabaab militia, raising security fears."

[mcsean2164] 13/3/2023 11:54

More seemingly bad new [I've no subscription so can't read full story]

htTps://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2023/03/13/africa-oil-corp-deals-blow-to-tullow-oil-s-kenya-turkana-fields-development-plans,109922601-art

Might explain the share price drop today. It just beggars belief that with oil $80 there's no interest in this project.

Kenya's population has increased significantly
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/kenya-population/

One might think they would be keen to have a source of energy. Maybe they've looked at the horrors of the oil industry in Nigeria and said no. Anyway, doesn't sound good from a tullow perspective. Wish I'd sold at 60p, there seems to be a never ending bad news cycle.

[kulvinder] 11/3/2023 15:10

Me and you both!!!!

[grupo guitarlumber] 11/3/2023 09:09

Heres hoping for a melt up

[grupo guitarlumber] 11/3/2023 09:08

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/tullow-oil-TLW/share-news/Tullow-Oil-PLC-TULLOW-OIL-PLC-2022-FULL-YEAR-RES/90444115

[kulvinder] 11/3/2023 00:40

Well done, at least you took a profit out of this...need it to get over 62p for that to happen for me.

[crazi] 10/3/2023 15:56

That's me sold the lot just over 34.22 for a nice profit...

Good luck

I will be back at the next opportunity

[xxnjr] 10/3/2023 14:58

would imagine they meant Brent price zingaro. they did suggest on the call that if oil prices weakened further some of their spend could be walked down but I guess a lot of CAPEX is already baked in.

[zingaro] 10/3/2023 14:00

xxjnr: when TLW talk about revenue vs oil price (@$80 and $90) do they mean the Brent price as I seem to remember that they get a premium to that of a few dollars?

[alfiex] 10/3/2023 12:18

Yes what a turnaround this is. Someone has made a lot of money, sadly not me

[badger36] 10/3/2023 10:56

This type of blatant manipulation at the open each morning can only be done with the knowledge and actions of the market maker. Looks very much like an attempt to keep frustration of longs as possible in hope of taking it on the cheap

[alfiex] 10/3/2023 08:06

Tullow down 5%

[xxnjr] 10/3/2023 08:05

OP back to $80.

[hubshank] 09/3/2023 22:09

Technical trading

[jugears] 09/3/2023 14:52

Manipulation!

[crazi] 09/3/2023 14:18

"how could the share price be marginally higher than in the middle of covid and much lower oil prices"...

The results were also positive. Crazy this is below 45p never mind 40p never mind 35p!

[xxnjr] 09/3/2023 13:25

Fair point about NYSE having higher multiples than LSE. OTOH and as mentioned yesterday Kosmos is on a higher multiple simply because they have visibility on 50% production growth over next 24 months, to be followed by further growth; phase 2 of tortue LNG FID in 2024/5 and more LNG developments to follow from yakaar/terranga (20TCF) and another large gas discovery I've forgotten the name of.

Kosmos have discovered a lot of gas. 30TCF to 50TCF gross. So much gas I've lost count.

Kosmos have signalled cash returns; buybacks and/or dividends starting from 2024. Tullow are a long way from that.

Don't be surprised if Rahul buys some mid-life asset in Nigeria at some point.

[alfiex] 09/3/2023 12:38

Copied from Lse board but shows how manipulated tullow ishTTps://mobile.twitter.com/Riccardino999/status/1633585672761098240

[xxnjr] 09/3/2023 10:37

There was a big impairment on TEN as anticipated

TEN Impairment (Ghana) b $380.6m
b. Revision of value based on revisions to reserves

[maywillow] 09/3/2023 09:44

Jam Tomorrow

Tullow Oil struggles to convince on Ghana-reliant debt-reduction plans

By David Whitehouse

Posted on Thursday, 9 March 2023 09:40


Tullow Oil’s full-year earnings left analysts unconvinced that the company has turned the corner on reducing its debt.

After-tax profit came to $49m versus a year-earlier loss of $81m, the company said in its full-year earnings presentation. Net debt at the end of 2022 fell to $1.864bn from $2.131bn a year earlier.

[the grumpy old men] 09/3/2023 07:58

Tullow submits new plan for Turkana oil fields


Thursday, March 09, 2023


Tullow Oil and its joint venture partners Total Energies and Africa Oil last week submitted a revised field development plan (FDP) to the government for approval, as the venture steps up its search for a strategic investor.


By
Brian Ambani

Nation Media Group

Tullow Oil and its joint venture partners Total Energies and Africa Oil last week submitted a revised field development plan (FDP) to the government for approval, as the venture steps up its search for a strategic investor.

The approval of the FDP—which will need to be ratified by Parliament —will enable the venture to get a government license to commence commercial drilling of crude oil in the 10BB and 13T oil blocks in Turkana County.

“Since January 1, 2022, there have been ongoing discussions with the government of Kenya on approval of the FDP and securing government deliverables. An updated FDP was submitted on March 3, 2023, and is being reviewed by the government of Kenya before ratification by the Kenyan Parliament,” said Tullow.


The country first announced the discovery of oil in March 2012.

The venture had been issued with a 15-month license extension from September 2020 to December 2021 on the condition that they would submit to the government an FDP that is technically and commercially viable for approval.

While the initial FDP was submitted in December 2021, the revised plan follows the revelation that the commercially recoverable oil from the reserves is significantly larger than previously estimated.
Revise production capacity

An audit by British petroleum consulting firm Gaffney, Cline & Associates led the firms to revise the production capacity of the oilfields to 120,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), up from previous estimates of 70,000 bpd.

This saw the revision of the FDP that has increased the size of the crude oil processing facility in Turkana and the size of the pipeline to evacuate the oil to Lamu, increasing the projected cost of the project from Sh319 billion to Sh377 billion.

The revised FDP also increased the diameter size of the planned Lokichar-Lamu crude oil pipeline from 18 inches to 20 inches to handle a higher product volume and drilling of additional exploration wells.

“The Group expects a production license to be granted once due government process has been completed,” said Tullow.

The Kenya oil project has faced long delays owing to uncertainty over access by the venture to land and water critical for oil drilling and laying of the oil pipeline. The firms have also been having cold feet over the project owing to uncertainties in the global crude oil market that could lead to low prices of the commodity, rendering it less commercially viable.

Media reports last year indicated that the Indian Oil Corporation is considering buying a stake in the venture, which would pump in significant cash that will give a new lease of life into the project.

The company is India’s largest oil refiner.

Tullow has previously attributed production delays to several factors, including unfavourable global oil prices, approval delays for land and water rights, a tax dispute and the Covid-19 pandemic.

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[ryad123] 09/3/2023 07:58

That would be a more sensible approach.