Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 25/1/2023 10:49

Tullow Oil expects revenue rise in 2022 on higher oil price

Wed, 25th Jan 2023 09:53

(Alliance News) - Tullow Oil PLC on Wednesday said it expected its revenue in 2022 to grow from 2021 on the back of higher oil prices.

The Africa and South America-focused oil and gas exploration company said it anticipates 2022 revenue of USD1.7 billion, up 34% from USD1.27 billion in 2021. Tullow expects an average post-hedging realised oil price of USD87 per barrel, up from around USD75 in 2021.

The company guides a 2023 production of 58,000 to 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 61,100 in 2022. It expects year-end debt to narrow to USD1.9 billion from USD2.1 billion a year prior. Tullow Oil expects an underlying operating cash flow of around USD900 million, up 27% from USD711 million in 2021.

Tullow Oil highlighted that in December, it signed a letter of intent for a nature-based carbon offset project in Ghana, which it anticipates to support output growth. It anticipates a final investment decision for the project with the Ghana Forestry Commissionin 2023.

The company will release its 2022 results on March 8.

Tullow Oil shares were 3.5% higher at 37.64 pence each on Wednesday morning in London.

By Tom Budszus, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to [e-mail]

[xxnjr] 25/1/2023 10:43

Hi mcs I can sympathise

To be fair Rahul saved Tullow from immediate bankruptcy. He signed a brilliant 4y or 5yr contract for the Ghana rig at what is now a ridiculously cheap rate. He brought the right guy (forgotten his name, he's Asian) into Ghana to sort out the FPSO breakdowns and downtime. That has been super successful. And Rahul has refocussed the business on producing assets and not wasting $bns on fruitless exploration. The real damage was done by previous management. It's just that it's taken a while for us to realise what a bad state the company was/is in. I guess Tullow need an M&A deal of some sort to fix the balance sheet (a bit like the CNE deal) but so far nothing further proposed. Who knows if there is a potential deal to be done and if so will it benefit shareholders, or debt holders?

[mcsean2164] 25/1/2023 10:03

I guess the only hope is Kenya

"Kenya

Tullow continues to focus on the process to secure a strategic partner for the development project in Kenya.

In parallel, Tullow and its JV Partners are working with the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Commission Authority (EPRA) and the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum to finalise the FDP."

and exploration.

Hard to see many being attracted into Tullow with its production and debt. It's a pity they don't try and buy their discounted debt. Hard to see what Rahul bringing to the table. Should have sold before the pandemic! £2 wasn't enough for me. I should have listened to my daughter!

[hojjat] 25/1/2023 08:58

Good results. Great 2023 onward.
An update before March will make it fly

[xxnjr] 25/1/2023 08:38

Hi thommie

well spotted on the gas. they are giving it away for about 1/16th the quantum ENI get for their Sankofa gas.

Net Debt was $2131m end 2021 and "$1900m" (somewhere between $1851m and $1949m) end 2022. It has come down which is good. But debt continues to dominate here and the Q should be asked; are the assets good enough to pay the debt down before production tails off again in 3 or 4 yrs time?

Also now having to make $30m/yr DECOM provision into escrow going forwards.

Tullow really need oil to stay above $100 otherwise they become a bit of a zombie.

There are probably better investment opportunities elsewhere.

I'll ask TullowIR what rate the new TEN well is producing at.

[xxnjr] 25/1/2023 08:22

Morning folks

Last year Tullow drilled 3 "producers" on TEN.
2 of those were actually more like exploration wells and failed to come in.
The 3rd well EN-16 encountered "better than expected reservoir" but we've never been told how much production it actually added. Not usually a good sign!
They also connected a previously drilled but uncompleted w/inj to support EN-16.

So 4 wells. Despite these, TEN gross production fell from 32.8K (2021) to 23.6K (2022).

In 2023 they will drill 0 TEN wells.

And yet we are expected to believe gross production will still average 20K bopd in 2023 which is not far south of where it appears to be now. I'm not really convinced but wish them the best with that guidance.

[hojjat] 25/1/2023 07:44

Better than expected 2022, and good forward looking 3 years ahead.
Interim gas sales agreement is good news, and the 7k boepd not included in Jubilee production. Also Kenya upside to come.
Great start for 2023 👏 👍 👌

[waldron] 25/1/2023 07:15

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/tullow-oil-TLW/share-news/Tullow-Oil-PLC-JANUARY-TRADING-STATEMENT-OPERATI/90051281

[kulvinder] 24/1/2023 16:48

It would appear that way, as it has drifted and drifted, wish I had sold out the last time it hit 58p...

[alfiex] 24/1/2023 14:59

Market obviously not expecting anything good tomorrow.Tullow zzzzzzz

[subsurface] 24/1/2023 01:54

Guyana: CGX JV spuds Wei-1 well offshore Guyana

hTTps://www.energy-pedia.com/news/guyana/cgx-jv-spuds-wei-1-well-offshore-guyana-190308

Uganda

Uganda to hold third oil licensing round in May in an effort to further develop a sector on track to produce its first oil in 2025.

Uganda agrees oil exploration deals with two firms including Australia's DGR Global

[lyreco1] 19/1/2023 18:13

TLW is always the runt of the litter. What a Sunday League management team

[mcsean2164] 19/1/2023 16:01

I guess that could be good or bad. Hopefully the former. Disappointing to see share price capitulation today. I really hope they are buying back their bonds....

[xxnjr] 19/1/2023 00:32

Africa Oil have just issued a pre-results trading update. Just a bare basics update. Most everything one would have expected got a brief comment. Only exception was Kenya. No mention at all.

[redbaron10] 17/1/2023 13:47

Never made any money on this share over the years having been in and out a few times.Jumped into Shell and BP when the ESG investing lobby made investing in fossil fuels unpalatable to many and now it's time to diversify here a little.I think Brent is more likely to go near $100 than $70 going forward with big oil slashing capex in the years ESG was front and centre, so some potential upside here i feel.China demand increase v global recession fears are the competing factors to where the poo goes from here.I'm not blinkered to the risks of investing here with this company's track record of discoveries, and exposure to a region, but it's a calculated risk.Time will tell.

[crazi] 16/1/2023 10:52

Oil at $85 is I reckon +- at the top price for a while so I just sold out. Bought at 35.22 and out at 38.10 so happy with that as a short term trade.

Good luck...

[xxnjr] 14/1/2023 12:32

Day 82, JUB SE, Rig still drilling away at same location.
(could be drilling 2 wells from same location; i.e where the manifold will be)


And Marine Traffic voyage details for Noble Discoverer (formerly known as Maersk Discoverer)

TT POINT LISAS ANCH ATD: 2023-01-11 15:38 LT (UTC -4)
GY GEO GEORGETOWN ETA: 2023-01-18 05:15 LT (UTC -4)

[xxnjr] 14/1/2023 12:16

I'm not really a believer in TLW's Guyana acreage but you never know miracle's occasionally can happen. So one to keep an eye on.

"CGX set to drill new exploration well offshore Guyana
Noble rig is on route from Trinidad & Tobago to drill the Wei-1 wildcat in the Corentyne block.

(Upstream) 13 January 2023 16:00 GMT UPDATED 13 January 2023 16:11 GMT
By Fabio Palmigiani in Rio de Janeiro

CGX Energy is on the verge of drilling a second wildcat in the Corentyne block offshore Guyana, as the Canadian operator tries to unlock additional hydrocarbons on the prospective play following a major breakthrough discovery in the licence area a year ago.

Sources told Upstream that the Noble Corporation semi-submersible rig Noble Discoverer is on route from Trinidad & Tobago after finishing working for European supermajor Shell, and should arrive in Guyanese waters next week to be mobilised to drill the Wei-1 exploration well."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

afaics CGX's previous well Kawa-1 was let's say inconclusive. Slide 8 of their presentation speaks to "indications" of HC's. But it is quite an interesting presentation.

hTTps://cgxenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Corentyne-Presentation-2022-28Aug2022.pdf

I've lost count of the number of wells Total/Apache have drilled next door in Suriname. Approx 10. Huge spend. Majority discoveries. Still drilling. But apparently according to Total there is a mismatch between what they are seeing on seismic and what they are finding in the wells. A bit of head scratching there then and so far no firm development plans although a multi-field single FPSO development appears to be potentially on the horizon. Back to sleep on Guyana. zzzzzz.....

[xxnjr] 13/1/2023 13:01

The 4 billion is oil in place. Gross Reserves are more like 550m (or 650m?) from memory. I tend to follow the production data and ignore any spin emanating from Chiswick! Possibly because we've been waiting 18 yrs and counting for Uganda to produce oil.....

Edit---->
Just checked

February 2018
"Kenya resources assessment completed: 240 – 560 – 1,230 mmbo (1C–2C–3C) contingent recoverable resources."

hTTps://www.tullowoil.com/our-operations/africa/kenya/

[subsurface] 13/1/2023 11:33

Hi Mcsean

I wonder what's taking so long.

I dont expect much before March as the govenment have 60days to approve or regect
or send for amendment the field development plan.

[mcsean2164] 13/1/2023 10:21

Oil reserves in the Lokichar sub-basin are estimated at over 4 billion barrels with full production potential estimated at 100,000 barrels per day, by 2024.

That's still 25k barrels if they farm down another half of their stake to India. I wonder what's taking so long. Is it all political instability?

[subsurface] 12/1/2023 00:13

Kenya, Africa press update with error ,2,000 barrels being transported by oil tankers nowadays.

hTTps://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2023-01-11-lokichar-lamu-pipeline-plan-awaits-nema-approval/

[franky15] 10/1/2023 19:38

That maybe true at the moment but it still won t get voted through at 50p

[crazi] 10/1/2023 12:46

Definitely worth more than 36pps...

They do need a rally though to keep people interested. Corporate Brokers suck and they should be replaced - bring in new blood to show some support and motivation for the share price

I day trade this on occasion but even that has become slow.