Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 06/2/2023 12:28

As we head into the 20 pence range it surely must be a buy?

[bootycall] 06/2/2023 12:25

hTTps://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/mtns-ghana-tax-headache-is-gone-d80a1e55-fbfb-4bc4-8299-af2573ee155e

Signs that the GRA “shakedown” is being kicked into touch. Trying it on with a “branch profits” tax has been a national preoccupation in Ghana ..for many years.
As far as I am aware, it has never had any validity and is no doubt being used as a strategic card in the gas pricing negotiations. Call me cynical, but this particular scam is going nowhere. MTNs share price barely budged as the tax was dropped…according to the article above …so why is ours getting so depressed over it ? Might bounce with a vengeance when investors work out that this tax raid will not be tolerated under stabilisation clauses in the PSC. At least that is my opinion. DYOR.

[dealy] 06/2/2023 11:42

New 52 week low despite robust markets this year

[xxnjr] 04/2/2023 13:48

Hi folks, just stumbled across Palliser's site 'Reform Capricorn'

hTTps://www.reformcapricorn.com/

Whilst its academic now, there are some interesting perspectives on Tullow from the Palliser point of view, for example this letter makes interesting reading.

hTTps://www.reformcapricorn.com/assets/filemanager/documents/20220809-letter-to-the-board-of-directors-of-capricorn-energy.pdf

Some extracts ".....Rather than the touted “merger of equals”, the Proposed Merger appears to us to be a poorly disguised nil-premium takeover of Capricorn by Tullow through which Capricorn’s substantial net cash balance, available after years of arbitration, would be applied towards repaying Tullow’s junk-rated creditors.....

Capricorn shareholders are faced with a discounted exchange of their existing exposure to a low-risk portfolio of highly predictable assets into a speculative investment in one of the worst performing and riskiest companies in the EMEA oil & gas sector;

We regard the Proposed Merger as a transaction structured exclusively for the benefit of Tullow and its creditors. Tullow is highly indebted, has no distributable reserves, has a portfolio of riskier, longer-dated assets and is facing acute funding challenges, including a need to refinance high yield debt carrying an onerous 10.25% coupon.

the Proposed Merger constitutes a one-sided deal in favour of Tullow, allowing it to de-lever its stressed balance sheet via what we see as a backdoor rights issue, incredibly at a premium to its current share price;

From a Total Shareholder Return (“TSR”) perspective, Tullow has been amongst the worst performing investments in the EMEA oil & gas sector over the past five years, with TSR of –72% versus Capricorn at +19%, Brent at +85% and an E&P Peers Average of +154%.

Critically, Tullow is a company that only last year was still warning its shareholders of a significant risk that it may not survive as a going concern, following chronic underperformance of its flagship deepwater fields in Ghana, the abrupt departure of its senior management team and a subsequent fire sale of assets to avoid insolvency.

By providing access to Capricorn’s cash on a deeply discounted basis, the Proposed Merger would represent a lifeline for Tullow, potentially allowing it to (i) satisfy its creditors with a meaningful repayment of its outstanding junk rated high-yield debt; (ii) deliver on ambitious investment targets in Ghana; (iii) address scepticism from rumoured farm-in partners on its capacity to fund future capex for its stranded oil project in Kenya; and (iv) finally resume paying dividends to its shareholders.

[yellowstoneadvisory] 03/2/2023 12:50

Sign up for the Tullow webinar for investors on 20th March at 12pm.

Rahul Dhir, Chief Executive Officer and Richard Miller, Chief Financial Officer will provide an introduction to Tullow Oil and update on company performance following the full year results which will be published in early March

Register

Https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/5216736304499/WN_ABQwbOs5RK6v3OH38KhIAA

[valuehurts] 03/2/2023 12:26

Lots of accumulation happening. Maybe Azvalor but probably more likely to be Samuel Dossou. He now owns nearly 18 percent. Smart operator although he is getting on a bit. Wonder if he is looking for a takeover or will just ride the shares up?

[alfiex] 03/2/2023 11:54

Hitting the big time now hTTps://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/tullow-earned-sh498m-from-early-oil-exports--4109232

[dealy] 02/2/2023 17:53

Money leaving energy and going into tech

[alfiex] 02/2/2023 17:47

Ftse 250 up over 700 and tullow down with more buys than sells.Something wrong here for sure

[badger36] 02/2/2023 15:07

Fair to say if share price linked to salary the dole would pay better for this pathetic bunch

[adrian j boris] 02/2/2023 09:20

yes i was a bit puzzled crazi

you could have edited

perhaps it was an omen and your view into the future

[crazi] 02/2/2023 09:07

Sorry that should say 34.98

[crazi] 02/2/2023 09:06

I bought back in yesterday through the UT auction. Took £10k at 49.98This really is undervalued imho.The recent update was more positive so someone is manipulating the price. It will rise in due course...

[adrian j boris] 02/2/2023 07:32

THE WORLD ACCORDING TO STOXLINE

Targets Six months: 49.49 One year: 55.34

Supports Support1: 34.28 Support2: 28.52

Resistances Resistance1: 42.37 Resistance2: 47.38

[adrian j boris] 02/2/2023 07:24

Https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TULLOW-OIL-PLC-9590152/

Apparently strong support at 34.96p compared with yesterdays close of 34.98p

As you say deal,due for a bounce soon

perhaps before results

Upcoming events on TULLOW OIL PLC


March/08/2023 FY 2022 Earnings Release

[dealy] 02/2/2023 07:06

The share price hit a 52 week low yesterday. Almost every other stock is up 30% from its 52 week low. The company even had a strong update last week. Has to be a bounce here soon

[grupo guitarlumber] 27/1/2023 22:07

graphic.com.gh

Tullow to invest $300 million in Ghana operations
Date: Jan - 27 - 2023 , 19:41
BY: Charles Benoni Okine

Independent oil and gas, exploration and production group, Tullow, has projected to invest $300 million in its operations in Ghana.

The money will be spent mainly on its Jubilee operations and will include over $100 million in infrastructure.

The company’s planned investment in Ghana is part of a $400 million amount the company intends to spend this year on its operations in Africa.

Breakdown

An amount of $40 million will be spent in Gabon; $20 million in Côte d’Ivoire; $10 million in Kenya and $30 million on exploration and appraisal activities.

The company’s annual expenditure is an increase of $50 million compared to 2022 as a consequence of deferrals from that year, increased equity in Ghana for the full year, and ongoing infrastructure investment in Jubilee South East, which will account for 40 per cent of Ghana capital spend in 2023.

Other expenses

The company said its decommissioning expenditure is expected to be $90 million in the United Kingdom (UK) and Mauritania, including deferrals from 2022, with less than $30 million of decommissioning liabilities in the UK and Mauritania remaining at the end of 2023.

“Additionally, starting in 2023, $30 million is expected to be paid annually into escrow for future decommissioning of currently producing assets in Ghana and parts of the non-operated portfolio,” it said.

It said, cash taxes are expected to be in excess of $300 million in in the year under review (at $80/bbl) as historical capital allowances in Ghana will have been fully utilised in the first quarter of 2023.

Cash flow

“Tullow said free cash flow for the full year 2023, post hedging, is expected to be $200 million at an average oil price of $100/bbl ($100 million at $80/bbl); this assumes revenue receipts for 15 cargos lifted from the Jubilee field and four cargos lifted from the TEN fields in Ghana during the year.

Capital investment in 2023, particularly in Ghana, is expected to support production growth through to 2025 and free cash flow generation of $700-800 million at 80/bbl for the two years 2024 and 2025 based on 2P reserves only, which will further reduce net debt and strengthen Tullow’s balance sheet,” it said.

It said Tullow’s commodity hedge portfolio provides oil price downside protection at $55/bbl for 64 per cent of forecast sales volumes to May 2023 and 40 per cent of forecast sales volumes from June 2023 through to May 2024.

The company added that with the majority of hedges executed as part of the 2021 debt refinancing rolling off, Tullow will have increased exposure to higher oil prices from May 2023 onwards.

“Tullow plans to build out its commodity hedge portfolio for the second half of 2023 and into 2024, looking to maintain material upside exposure whilst securing protection against a severe oil price downturn,” it added.

[waldron] 27/1/2023 16:24

Https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/01/27/after-the-tullow-oil-share-price-crunch-should-i-buy-again/

[xxnjr] 27/1/2023 14:09

looking at TEN guidance (20K average for 2023)

From petrocom data we can work out 2022 monthly production.

1 25,541
2 23,929
3 25,296
4 24,062
5 23,747
6 23,004
7 21,507
8 21,120
9 23,697
10 25,699
11 22,693

And we can work out Dec by subtracting 11 months Petrocom data from Tullow TEN annual production. If we do that

12 = 22,900.

Historic Annual Decline* rate on TEN was
(* =Dec previous yr vs Dec yr after, expressed as % for this calculation)

2018 9.2%
2019 15.3%
2020 24.8%
2021 34.8%
2022 13.8% Notice the Rahul effect in this line!

But no new wells in 2023.

So DEC we think was 22900. As a rough guide if we assume Jan 2023 is 23K and we exit the year at 17K then ave production would be 20K.

And perhaps more realistically

If we start with Jan at 22500 and assume monthly decline of 2.5% that results in an average of 19650 for the year. An exit rate of 17031. And annualised decline of 24%.

In conclusion guidance looks doable at this stage assuming everything goes right.

All back of envelope stuff not to be taken too seriously or used to make investment decisions!

[zingaro] 27/1/2023 11:50

subsurface: thx, hope ahead - "Barclays has an ‘overweight217; rating for Tullow Oil and has a 62p per share price target, suggesting more than 60% upside to the current market price of around 34p."
Of course, for an oiler with a lower cost of debt (or even a cash balance) tlw would be a tasty morsel, esp if Kenya gains traction.

[subsurface] 27/1/2023 09:39

Positive report from analysts at Barclays.

hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1004451/is-tullow-oil-set-to-deliver-upside-in-2023-1004451.html

[kulvinder] 27/1/2023 07:51

I know how you feel, sometimes you just have to give up the ghost and move on with funds that you have left after selling.

[phillis] 26/1/2023 12:00

After a long long downward journey ( when for sure my heart ruled my head) I am all out this morning

[thommie] 25/1/2023 12:34

Rahul is the main reason your investment is worth more than 0 today. He has done a fantastic job since he joined the team under the circunstances that were possible! If he really gets kenya sorted in the end, which is still possible I would call it a superb job. If they could fully offload kenya for a cash consideration of around 700-1000m$ that alone would fix their balance sheet...Im currently not invested in tullow, as I needed the funds elsewhere, but it could be possible that I miss out on that spike it would cause!

[mcsean2164] 25/1/2023 11:56

Thanks xxjnr,

I didn't realise Rahul had such a positive impact. Well, maybe all is not lost yet. Hopefully he learned from CNE disaster.