Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 02/2/2023 17:53

Money leaving energy and going into tech

[alfiex] 02/2/2023 17:47

Ftse 250 up over 700 and tullow down with more buys than sells.Something wrong here for sure

[badger36] 02/2/2023 15:07

Fair to say if share price linked to salary the dole would pay better for this pathetic bunch

[adrian j boris] 02/2/2023 09:20

yes i was a bit puzzled crazi

you could have edited

perhaps it was an omen and your view into the future

[crazi] 02/2/2023 09:07

Sorry that should say 34.98

[crazi] 02/2/2023 09:06

I bought back in yesterday through the UT auction. Took £10k at 49.98This really is undervalued imho.The recent update was more positive so someone is manipulating the price. It will rise in due course...

[adrian j boris] 02/2/2023 07:32

THE WORLD ACCORDING TO STOXLINE

Targets Six months: 49.49 One year: 55.34

Supports Support1: 34.28 Support2: 28.52

Resistances Resistance1: 42.37 Resistance2: 47.38

[adrian j boris] 02/2/2023 07:24

Apparently strong support at 34.96p compared with yesterdays close of 34.98p

As you say deal,due for a bounce soon

perhaps before results

Upcoming events on TULLOW OIL PLC


March/08/2023 FY 2022 Earnings Release

[dealy] 02/2/2023 07:06

The share price hit a 52 week low yesterday. Almost every other stock is up 30% from its 52 week low. The company even had a strong update last week. Has to be a bounce here soon

[grupo guitarlumber] 27/1/2023 22:07

graphic.com.gh

Tullow to invest $300 million in Ghana operations
Date: Jan - 27 - 2023 , 19:41
BY: Charles Benoni Okine

Independent oil and gas, exploration and production group, Tullow, has projected to invest $300 million in its operations in Ghana.

The money will be spent mainly on its Jubilee operations and will include over $100 million in infrastructure.

The company’s planned investment in Ghana is part of a $400 million amount the company intends to spend this year on its operations in Africa.

Breakdown

An amount of $40 million will be spent in Gabon; $20 million in Côte d’Ivoire; $10 million in Kenya and $30 million on exploration and appraisal activities.

The company’s annual expenditure is an increase of $50 million compared to 2022 as a consequence of deferrals from that year, increased equity in Ghana for the full year, and ongoing infrastructure investment in Jubilee South East, which will account for 40 per cent of Ghana capital spend in 2023.

Other expenses

The company said its decommissioning expenditure is expected to be $90 million in the United Kingdom (UK) and Mauritania, including deferrals from 2022, with less than $30 million of decommissioning liabilities in the UK and Mauritania remaining at the end of 2023.

“Additionally, starting in 2023, $30 million is expected to be paid annually into escrow for future decommissioning of currently producing assets in Ghana and parts of the non-operated portfolio,” it said.

It said, cash taxes are expected to be in excess of $300 million in in the year under review (at $80/bbl) as historical capital allowances in Ghana will have been fully utilised in the first quarter of 2023.

Cash flow

“Tullow said free cash flow for the full year 2023, post hedging, is expected to be $200 million at an average oil price of $100/bbl ($100 million at $80/bbl); this assumes revenue receipts for 15 cargos lifted from the Jubilee field and four cargos lifted from the TEN fields in Ghana during the year.

Capital investment in 2023, particularly in Ghana, is expected to support production growth through to 2025 and free cash flow generation of $700-800 million at 80/bbl for the two years 2024 and 2025 based on 2P reserves only, which will further reduce net debt and strengthen Tullow’s balance sheet,” it said.

It said Tullow’s commodity hedge portfolio provides oil price downside protection at $55/bbl for 64 per cent of forecast sales volumes to May 2023 and 40 per cent of forecast sales volumes from June 2023 through to May 2024.

The company added that with the majority of hedges executed as part of the 2021 debt refinancing rolling off, Tullow will have increased exposure to higher oil prices from May 2023 onwards.

“Tullow plans to build out its commodity hedge portfolio for the second half of 2023 and into 2024, looking to maintain material upside exposure whilst securing protection against a severe oil price downturn,” it added.

[xxnjr] 27/1/2023 14:09

looking at TEN guidance (20K average for 2023)

From petrocom data we can work out 2022 monthly production.

1 25,541
2 23,929
3 25,296
4 24,062
5 23,747
6 23,004
7 21,507
8 21,120
9 23,697
10 25,699
11 22,693

And we can work out Dec by subtracting 11 months Petrocom data from Tullow TEN annual production. If we do that

12 = 22,900.

Historic Annual Decline* rate on TEN was
(* =Dec previous yr vs Dec yr after, expressed as % for this calculation)

2018 9.2%
2019 15.3%
2020 24.8%
2021 34.8%
2022 13.8% Notice the Rahul effect in this line!

But no new wells in 2023.

So DEC we think was 22900. As a rough guide if we assume Jan 2023 is 23K and we exit the year at 17K then ave production would be 20K.

And perhaps more realistically

If we start with Jan at 22500 and assume monthly decline of 2.5% that results in an average of 19650 for the year. An exit rate of 17031. And annualised decline of 24%.

In conclusion guidance looks doable at this stage assuming everything goes right.

All back of envelope stuff not to be taken too seriously or used to make investment decisions!

[zingaro] 27/1/2023 11:50

subsurface: thx, hope ahead - "Barclays has an ‘overweight217; rating for Tullow Oil and has a 62p per share price target, suggesting more than 60% upside to the current market price of around 34p."
Of course, for an oiler with a lower cost of debt (or even a cash balance) tlw would be a tasty morsel, esp if Kenya gains traction.

[subsurface] 27/1/2023 09:39

Positive report from analysts at Barclays.

[kulvinder] 27/1/2023 07:51

I know how you feel, sometimes you just have to give up the ghost and move on with funds that you have left after selling.

[phillis] 26/1/2023 12:00

After a long long downward journey ( when for sure my heart ruled my head) I am all out this morning

[thommie] 25/1/2023 12:34

Rahul is the main reason your investment is worth more than 0 today. He has done a fantastic job since he joined the team under the circunstances that were possible! If he really gets kenya sorted in the end, which is still possible I would call it a superb job. If they could fully offload kenya for a cash consideration of around 700-1000m$ that alone would fix their balance sheet...Im currently not invested in tullow, as I needed the funds elsewhere, but it could be possible that I miss out on that spike it would cause!

[mcsean2164] 25/1/2023 11:56

Thanks xxjnr,

I didn't realise Rahul had such a positive impact. Well, maybe all is not lost yet. Hopefully he learned from CNE disaster.

[waldron] 25/1/2023 10:49

Tullow Oil expects revenue rise in 2022 on higher oil price

Wed, 25th Jan 2023 09:53

(Alliance News) - Tullow Oil PLC on Wednesday said it expected its revenue in 2022 to grow from 2021 on the back of higher oil prices.

The Africa and South America-focused oil and gas exploration company said it anticipates 2022 revenue of USD1.7 billion, up 34% from USD1.27 billion in 2021. Tullow expects an average post-hedging realised oil price of USD87 per barrel, up from around USD75 in 2021.

The company guides a 2023 production of 58,000 to 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 61,100 in 2022. It expects year-end debt to narrow to USD1.9 billion from USD2.1 billion a year prior. Tullow Oil expects an underlying operating cash flow of around USD900 million, up 27% from USD711 million in 2021.

Tullow Oil highlighted that in December, it signed a letter of intent for a nature-based carbon offset project in Ghana, which it anticipates to support output growth. It anticipates a final investment decision for the project with the Ghana Forestry Commissionin 2023.

The company will release its 2022 results on March 8.

Tullow Oil shares were 3.5% higher at 37.64 pence each on Wednesday morning in London.

By Tom Budszus, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to [e-mail]

[xxnjr] 25/1/2023 10:43

Hi mcs I can sympathise

To be fair Rahul saved Tullow from immediate bankruptcy. He signed a brilliant 4y or 5yr contract for the Ghana rig at what is now a ridiculously cheap rate. He brought the right guy (forgotten his name, he's Asian) into Ghana to sort out the FPSO breakdowns and downtime. That has been super successful. And Rahul has refocussed the business on producing assets and not wasting $bns on fruitless exploration. The real damage was done by previous management. It's just that it's taken a while for us to realise what a bad state the company was/is in. I guess Tullow need an M&A deal of some sort to fix the balance sheet (a bit like the CNE deal) but so far nothing further proposed. Who knows if there is a potential deal to be done and if so will it benefit shareholders, or debt holders?

[mcsean2164] 25/1/2023 10:03

I guess the only hope is Kenya

"Kenya

Tullow continues to focus on the process to secure a strategic partner for the development project in Kenya.

In parallel, Tullow and its JV Partners are working with the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Commission Authority (EPRA) and the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum to finalise the FDP."

and exploration.

Hard to see many being attracted into Tullow with its production and debt. It's a pity they don't try and buy their discounted debt. Hard to see what Rahul bringing to the table. Should have sold before the pandemic! £2 wasn't enough for me. I should have listened to my daughter!

[hojjat] 25/1/2023 08:58

Good results. Great 2023 onward.
An update before March will make it fly

[xxnjr] 25/1/2023 08:38

Hi thommie

well spotted on the gas. they are giving it away for about 1/16th the quantum ENI get for their Sankofa gas.

Net Debt was $2131m end 2021 and "$1900m" (somewhere between $1851m and $1949m) end 2022. It has come down which is good. But debt continues to dominate here and the Q should be asked; are the assets good enough to pay the debt down before production tails off again in 3 or 4 yrs time?

Also now having to make $30m/yr DECOM provision into escrow going forwards.

Tullow really need oil to stay above $100 otherwise they become a bit of a zombie.

There are probably better investment opportunities elsewhere.

I'll ask TullowIR what rate the new TEN well is producing at.

[xxnjr] 25/1/2023 08:22

Morning folks

Last year Tullow drilled 3 "producers" on TEN.
2 of those were actually more like exploration wells and failed to come in.
The 3rd well EN-16 encountered "better than expected reservoir" but we've never been told how much production it actually added. Not usually a good sign!
They also connected a previously drilled but uncompleted w/inj to support EN-16.

So 4 wells. Despite these, TEN gross production fell from 32.8K (2021) to 23.6K (2022).

In 2023 they will drill 0 TEN wells.

And yet we are expected to believe gross production will still average 20K bopd in 2023 which is not far south of where it appears to be now. I'm not really convinced but wish them the best with that guidance.