Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 28/2/2023 13:33

Ghana: Lukoil reported to be in talks to sell stake in Ghana's Pecan field

hTTps://www.energy-pedia.com/news/ghana/lukoil-looks-to-sell-stake-in-ghanas-pecan-field-190693

[xxnjr] 28/2/2023 10:43

Another day. Another impairment. This time Africa Oil

"Kenya

In 2021, the Company and its partners initiated a farmout process for Project Oil Kenya. A successful farmout is viewed by the Company as a critical step towards the FID for Project Oil Kenya being achieved and is viewed as a condition to FID. Discussions with the interested parties have taken longer than expected and there is no guarantee that the Company can successfully conclude a farmout to new strategic partner(s) on favorable terms. As a result of this delay the Company has recognized an impairment to its carrying value for Project Oil Kenya.

Africa Oil recognized a non-cash impairment to its Kenyan intangible exploration assets of $170.6 million (2021: nil) due to continuing delays and uncertainties to the farm out process and the path to the final investment decision ("FID") for Project Oil Kenya."

[xxnjr] 28/2/2023 10:40

Interesting story SS. In terms of volumes the sanctions thing isn't really working. Russian crude exports have been quite strong since invasion and may have even increased. And some of the petrol or diesel in your tank, even in UK/Europe, was refined out of Russian crude that was diverted to refineries in India/China and carried there by Russia's huge shadow fleet of sanction busting tankers.

[badger36] 28/2/2023 08:32

Anyone helping Russia deserves pariah status. You think those tankers are humanitarian ?

[subsurface] 28/2/2023 06:36

We dont want Ghanas oil sanctioned.

A cargo of Russian oil is heading for storage tanks in Ghana, a nation that exports crude itself and is on the doorstep of two regional supply powerhouses.

The development suggests that traders could be scouring the market for new buyers of Russian barrels after the European Union stopped almost all seaborne imports from the country in December. The bloc’s measures made Moscow hugely reliant on Chinese and Indian purchases.

The tanker Theseus arrived in Ghana’s territorial waters on Friday carrying about 600,000 barrels of Russian oil from a port in the Black Sea, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Its cargo was due to be pumped into storage tanks in Tema, people with knowledge of the matter said. The last signal from the vessel was on Sunday evening, by which time unloading had not begun.

Russia is under pressure to sustain its oil revenue after the Group of Seven and the European Union imposed punishing sanctions on the country’s energy industry.

Almost all European Union companies are prohibited from buying Russian crude and petroleum products, or providing important services such as insurance to nations that buy such exports above a capped price. In December, Russia’s petroleum revenues dropped nearly 20 percent from the previous month after the price cap triggered big discounts on the nation’s crude, according to the International Energy Agency.

The crude will be stored at tanks at the Tema Oil Refinery, the people said. The firm didn’t respond to requests for comment.

When the tanker was en route to the country, the CEO of Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority CEO said the shipment would be blocked if it was bound for the country. The NPA didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment after it reached the west African nation’s territorial waters.

The shipment to Tema would be the first time Russian oil has been delivered to a West African country since at least October 2018, tracking data show.

Ghana itself is small oil exporter, shipping an average of about 140,000 barrels a day over the past six months, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also next to Nigeria and Angola, the two biggest suppliers in sub-Saharan Africa.

After sanctions were imposed on Russia, the nation directed crude exports toward China and India, upending global oil flows and the maritime industry.

With Europe previously having been by far the largest market for Russian oil, that narrowed the nation’s pool of buyers dramatically. It also meant the barrels had to be discounted at the point of export to compensate for relatively high delivery costs.

[kulvinder] 27/2/2023 17:43

Up three days in a row...must be some sort of record....

[hudson64] 27/2/2023 16:25

Finally it looks like the buyers are returning.

[crazi] 27/2/2023 12:32

I'm out at 34.73 Reasonable little profit. Was expecting more but it's been weak so will watch on the sidelines...

[subsurface] 27/2/2023 11:34

From ECO Atlantic report

Both Guyana and Namibia continue to yield sizeable discoveries, and we are seeing unprecedented levels of interest for exploration assets in these regions. As such, we continue to progress our highly strategic acreage positions in both Guyana and Namibia and we look forward to updating the market on our farm out program in Namibia and our plans for a drilling campaign in Guyana as soon as practically possible.

[subsurface] 27/2/2023 11:11

Thanks for posting XX seems positive

Kosmos Energy Earnings Conference Call. Feb 27, 2023 at 11:00 AM EST.


New director

perhaps his first job is to sort out Kenya

He has proven skills as a business builder in Africa, with valuable practical experience in country on matters such as financing, trading, and resolving complex commercial issues.

[crazi] 27/2/2023 08:29

I wouldn't be surprised if the new Director replaces Rahul shortly.

He's also a large investor so has a personal stake to improve.

[xxnjr] 27/2/2023 08:14

KOS Results

At year-end 2022, we booked an impairment of $450 million against the TEN fields in Ghana. While 2P reserves were only reduced by approximately 3.5%, a more conservative future activity set is currently expected for the fields, prioritizing de-risked well locations within the TEN area. Therefore, the impairment was largely impacted by the expected pace of potential future development activity, which has been deferred given the near-term focus on maximizing rate from the Jubilee field, as well as reserve mix between oil and gas.

OPERATIONAL UPDATE

Production

Total net production(2) in the fourth quarter of 2022 averaged approximately 58,700 boepd, in line with company guidance. Total net production(2) for the full year 2022 averaged approximately 63,600 boepd, also in line with company guidance, representing a 17% increase over full year 2021. The Company exited the quarter in a slight net overlift position.

Ghana

Production in Ghana averaged approximately 34,300 barrels of oil per day (bopd) net in the fourth quarter of 2022. Kosmos lifted four cargos from Ghana during the quarter, in line with guidance.

At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 80,800 bopd gross during the quarter. At TEN, production averaged approximately 23,800 bopd gross for the fourth quarter.

Following the handover of the operations and maintenance ("O&M") of the Jubilee FPSO, results to date have been positive with uptime maintained at high levels. Jubilee FPSO O&M costs were 30% lower in the second half of the year compared to the first, with further cost savings identified for 2023, helping to offset the impact of inflation.

At the Jubilee Southeast development, two of the three wells were drilled during the fourth quarter 2022 and the third was drilled in early January 2023. The results of all three wells came in above expectations with additional reservoirs penetrated, and the primary horizons indicating connectivity to the main Jubilee field, which should support higher recovery from the field in the future.

The project remains on time and on budget, with initial production expected in mid-2023. The partnership expects the new wells to increase gross production in the field to approximately 100,000 bopd.

At TEN, a water injection well (En16) was brought online in December 2022 and is expected to provide pressure support for production from Enyenra in 2023. No new wells are planned at TEN in 2023 and the partnership is working to high-grade the future activity set to maximize value from the assets.

In 2022, the partnership exported approximately 109 million standard cubic feet per day (gross) on average from the Jubilee & TEN fields, fulfilling the remaining committed volumes to be provided to the Government of Ghana in connection with the approval of the Jubilee Phase 1 plan of development. From 2018 through 2022, approximately 19 Bcf of the first 200 Bcf of natural gas was substituted from the TEN fields in order to maintain consistent gas volumes for Ghana domestic power purposes. In December 2022, an interim gas sales agreement for 19 Bcf (gross) was executed with the Government of Ghana, which allowed for gas to be sold at $0.50 per mmbtu, in line with the agreed TEN gas sales agreement terms. The 19 Bcf is expected to be exported by the middle of 2023. The partnership is currently in discussions with the Government of Ghana regarding a future long-term gas sales agreement covering both the Jubilee and TEN fields.

[kulvinder] 24/2/2023 17:02

Up too days running...whipee, but still could not pass 34p...

[hudson64] 24/2/2023 16:30

Everything comes to he who waits.

[thommie] 24/2/2023 15:02

Rofl... You really have no clue. He is the only reason why your investment hasnt gone to 0 to date. Im with you, that many things are not perfect here, but he is just juggling with the bad heritage he got from the former management. The game changer would have been Kenia. Sadly there were elections just when they found a decent buyers to farm down. The new one now blocks everything again. If Kenia farm down had succeeded, the capricorn merger would have gone through as well and we would be in a completely different situation now. TEN drilling is just unlucky...

[lyreco1] 24/2/2023 10:09

This has happened many times over the last 2 years, Rahul simply turns a blinds eye. Sorry, he needs to go, the share price is less now than when he first rode into town.

Everything he has done has been toxic for the company and the share price.

[crazi] 23/2/2023 14:59

I'm still convinced the Corporate Brokers are "weighting" the order book sell side.

Oil on a rally and the share price still below 34p is pathetic.

Sack them and get new Brokers. That would be one good decision and action by Rahul. New blood who promote the companies shares and not constantly fiddling the order book for their own profits...

Look at the last hour of trading. 90% buying and yet the price fell... "weighted" order book...

[xxnjr] 23/2/2023 12:17

Really!
Finance costs on debt $356m in 2021 and probably about $300m in 2022.

$650m not going into shareholders pockets over last 24 months!

[lyreco1] 22/2/2023 16:42

Nothing to do with Debt, it's Rahul's incompetency.

[xxnjr] 22/2/2023 16:08

they are. my read is that is the combined total FCF over 2 yrs; 2024 & 2025. I'd like more meat on the bone though! let's see what they say on results day. I hope they succeed!

Maybe they can reduce debt by buying the 7% 2025's back at 74% now. Bonds may get cheaper if OP stays weak.

[dros1] 22/2/2023 15:58

but from 2024 they are guiding for $700-800 FCF

[xxnjr] 22/2/2023 15:38

Well yes, 2020 CMD was just numbers, but Net Debt reality at end of Yr was

2020 $2,374m
2021 $2,131m
2022 "$1.9bn", or somewhere between $1,851m and $1,949m
and in 2022 the OP averaged $102/bbl!

all I'm seeing in 2023 so far is kind of $83/bbl as an average OP.
and latest guidance said

"Free cash flow for the full year 2023, post hedging, is expected to be c.$200 million at an average oil price of $100/bbl (c.$100 million at $80/bbl)"

At $55/bbl OP, FCF would be zero. More than likely negative FCF = Net debt going up.

There's an element of denial in TLW HQ as they are in a straightjacket i.e

"We've ordered sub-sea equipment for N'tomme riser base development and will drill 2 development wells"
Actually more like exploration wells and results meant no feasible development.

"TEN will produce at 50K bopd". Does anyone really believe that now?

Despite massive hedge fund opposition "CNE deal will go through".

"Our business plan assumes an OP of >$80, preferably $100". I'm paraphrasing.

Just as a comparison I was listening to Patrick P of Total Energies on their last results call and he mentioned a new development in Angola they had just sanctioned with a break even price of $20/bbl.

[dros1] 22/2/2023 15:05

2020 Capital Markets Day
Assuming an oil price of $45 per barrel in 2021 and $55 per barrel flat nominal from 2022 onwards, and with over 90% of future capital expenditure focused on the Group's West African producing assets, Tullow forecasts it will generate c. $7 billion of operating cashflow over the next 10 years. After capital investment of c. $2.7 billion, there will be c.$4 billion cash flow available for debt service and shareholder returns which Tullow will initially apply towards reducing gearing to 1-2x net debt / EBITDAX while retaining appropriate liquidity.

$4B cash flow on $55 to pay downs debt , we are way higher than that and still market think we are doom.