Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[florenceorbis] 13/2/2023 14:24

EV is 4 times approx current share price it seems

blue, tend to agree with your view

Most analyst too believe it is substantially undervalued

[blueclyde] 13/2/2023 12:54

You may be right... But the assets are trading at such a huge discount that a 60p bid would be a huge win for the buyer and the sellers at this price. That makes it a no brainier at this price.

[badger36] 13/2/2023 11:08

People with sharper minds than us are stupid or or perhaps the stupid ones are the ones we see in the mirror Paying these clowns for presiding over a collapse in an era of booming oil prices and the chaos of the Capricorn fiasco

[blueclyde] 12/2/2023 13:46

I love how negative sentiment is here and how battered down the share price is. Couple of observations hedges are rolling off in May means they can capture upside of price increases. Commercialisation of gas seems huge opportunity and the new wells coming online also. Sentiment is so negative it over looks it is a 60k a day producer away from all this windfall tax nonsense and has some really interesting average that is I for free.

[subsurface] 09/2/2023 07:05

Thanks for posting XX good news

[xxnjr] 07/2/2023 20:30

This is potentially good news as it underpins future gas demand from TLW Ghana fields



Can't copy and paste so you'll have to read it! (Tullow sales gas already gets processed at Atuabo GPP1). Building Atuabo GPP2 can only be a good thing.

[xxnjr] 07/2/2023 14:49

Unless something else dramatic happens, TLW seems more like a bet on the oil price.

If OP goes <$80/bbl, FCF (and debt reduction) starts to evaporate.
If OP goes >$100/bbl, FCF (and debt reduction) becomes useful.

Layered on top of that we have execution risk on Jubilee South East wells coming on stream in good order. Current management has a good record on Jubilee.

Also worth noting 48K of 61K bopd 2023 Guidance, or 77% is now Ghana.
And 37K of that 61K bopd, or 60% goes through 1 FPSO (Jubilee).

We'll get more insights when results come out.

[mcsean2164] 07/2/2023 14:33

Just when you think it can't get any worse...

[alfiex] 07/2/2023 11:04

We wish, but as always its being kept in its place

[michelle74] 07/2/2023 10:28

Come on 36

[mcsean2164] 07/2/2023 09:07

There goes 35p😢

[valuehurts] 06/2/2023 20:12

This is like buying a 1m rental property for 50k that you can rent out for 200k a year. Mortgage and property maintenance costs you a lot but next year your rent after all the costs will be 80k and the same the year after if all goes well. Very asymmetrical trade...

[valuehurts] 06/2/2023 19:54

Yeah I think so. But size appropriately. Hold for a couple of years. In the meantime go and play golf.

[kulvinder] 06/2/2023 16:13

Not heard much from Fizz these days. What a mistake here, should even have sold out at 52p when they announced the merger with CNE, seems no bottom, bit of a free fall happening as debt not seen to going down quick enough as the market would like to see.

[cool hand kev] 06/2/2023 12:51

Where’s the support?

[badger36] 06/2/2023 12:28

As we head into the 20 pence range it surely must be a buy?

[bootycall] 06/2/2023 12:25

Signs that the GRA “shakedown&rdquo; is being kicked into touch. Trying it on with a “branch profits” tax has been a national preoccupation in Ghana ..for many years.
As far as I am aware, it has never had any validity and is no doubt being used as a strategic card in the gas pricing negotiations. Call me cynical, but this particular scam is going nowhere. MTNs share price barely budged as the tax was dropped…according to the article above …so why is ours getting so depressed over it ? Might bounce with a vengeance when investors work out that this tax raid will not be tolerated under stabilisation clauses in the PSC. At least that is my opinion. DYOR.

[dealy] 06/2/2023 11:42

New 52 week low despite robust markets this year

[xxnjr] 04/2/2023 13:48

Hi folks, just stumbled across Palliser's site 'Reform Capricorn'



Whilst its academic now, there are some interesting perspectives on Tullow from the Palliser point of view, for example this letter makes interesting reading.



Some extracts ".....Rather than the touted “merger of equals”, the Proposed Merger appears to us to be a poorly disguised nil-premium takeover of Capricorn by Tullow through which Capricorn’s substantial net cash balance, available after years of arbitration, would be applied towards repaying Tullow’s junk-rated creditors.....

Capricorn shareholders are faced with a discounted exchange of their existing exposure to a low-risk portfolio of highly predictable assets into a speculative investment in one of the worst performing and riskiest companies in the EMEA oil & gas sector;

We regard the Proposed Merger as a transaction structured exclusively for the benefit of Tullow and its creditors. Tullow is highly indebted, has no distributable reserves, has a portfolio of riskier, longer-dated assets and is facing acute funding challenges, including a need to refinance high yield debt carrying an onerous 10.25% coupon.

the Proposed Merger constitutes a one-sided deal in favour of Tullow, allowing it to de-lever its stressed balance sheet via what we see as a backdoor rights issue, incredibly at a premium to its current share price;

From a Total Shareholder Return (“TSR”) perspective, Tullow has been amongst the worst performing investments in the EMEA oil & gas sector over the past five years, with TSR of –72% versus Capricorn at +19%, Brent at +85% and an E&P Peers Average of +154%.

Critically, Tullow is a company that only last year was still warning its shareholders of a significant risk that it may not survive as a going concern, following chronic underperformance of its flagship deepwater fields in Ghana, the abrupt departure of its senior management team and a subsequent fire sale of assets to avoid insolvency.

By providing access to Capricorn’s cash on a deeply discounted basis, the Proposed Merger would represent a lifeline for Tullow, potentially allowing it to (i) satisfy its creditors with a meaningful repayment of its outstanding junk rated high-yield debt; (ii) deliver on ambitious investment targets in Ghana; (iii) address scepticism from rumoured farm-in partners on its capacity to fund future capex for its stranded oil project in Kenya; and (iv) finally resume paying dividends to its shareholders.

[yellowstoneadvisory] 03/2/2023 12:50

Sign up for the Tullow webinar for investors on 20th March at 12pm.

Rahul Dhir, Chief Executive Officer and Richard Miller, Chief Financial Officer will provide an introduction to Tullow Oil and update on company performance following the full year results which will be published in early March

Register

[valuehurts] 03/2/2023 12:26

Lots of accumulation happening. Maybe Azvalor but probably more likely to be Samuel Dossou. He now owns nearly 18 percent. Smart operator although he is getting on a bit. Wonder if he is looking for a takeover or will just ride the shares up?

[alfiex] 03/2/2023 11:54

Hitting the big time now hTTps://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/tullow-earned-sh498m-from-early-oil-exports--4109232

[dealy] 02/2/2023 17:53

Money leaving energy and going into tech