Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[grupo guitarlumber] 10/1/2020 11:19

lol

now only needs to break thru 60p with a little luck from its friends and avatars

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 11:17

Indeed grupo balance in view is balance in account. Very true

[maturo] 10/1/2020 11:16

Master RSI
Your nickname tells a lot about you, your comments today were a Master Class of Charting and spot on. Cheers

[grupo guitarlumber] 10/1/2020 11:15

i get the impression that Master RSI and SentimentRules are working out of the same office
or even the same group of avatars

at least we have equal weighted viewpoints

shame its such much and repetitive




Cheers

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 11:08

Short order ready 59p add

[bootycall] 10/1/2020 11:08

Stumpmy. Leaving aside the general malaise of the sector... this stock will ultimately be valued on its cash flow yield. If the
market chooses to be churlish the company will just buy shares in or pay out large special divs... bottom line long term share appreciation regardless.
I did not quite appreciate how many stupid decisions have been made by the management of Tullow.. it appears that costs of the last few years have become bloated... which is a shame as Aidan Heavey correctly culled hard five years or so ago with the emergence of US shale production. Amazingly, despite taking on so many new personnel, the Company appears to have delayed essential procurement of key items required for Ghanaian field development, chosen lower risk, but less prospective shallower targets in Guyana for drilling and yet took massive risk drilling horizontals in channel sands in Enyenra.... not as if they didn’t learn from the original poor well completions at Jubilee... which had separate sand issues.
However, despite her lack of industry experience, I am starting to hear complimentary things about our new Chairwoman. Yes, she has put out absurd production targets which will almost certainly be revised upwards but she appears to be weeding our the weeds and determining a sensible path forward . We have just had an independent reserve report upgrading the field reserves (again) in virtually all areas other than a section of Enyenra. Judging by the hysteria on this board you would have been forgiven for thinking it was all terminal. Far from it. I think Repsol have downplayed Guyana aware they may have great prospects up dip and Apache have confirmed the potential of a stratigraphic play with their latest well 2 days ago. Indeed we should have a competent persons report being issued via Eco Atlantic to wash away stupid ideas that the blocks have no value. They have become hugely valuable as a result of recent events... but the market is only interested for the time being in next week. I can assure you the industry will not be thinking that way as the Total / Apache farm out demonstrates. The catalyst for a rerating is the restoration of previous production targets. To do that Tullow will have to boost gas processing facilities by 20% and obtain commitments on the gas allocation. The former is a doddle and can be done in about 3 months. The latter should be straightforward as Ghana is financially worse off were it not to do so. Despite this, I suspect the new management will only confess to throwing the baby with the bath water at the next Capital Markets Day to be held in February. Lastly I note that IG punters have moved from almost 100% long to 25% of the punters going short now.
Says it all !

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 11:05

It looks ready to break from earlier intraday high

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 10:46

Stupmy

There is a good possibility that she will carry on with the same format of this morning
Pause >>>> rise .... Pause >>>> rise.... now at pause >>>>>

The pauses are lasting around 40 minutes

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 10:40

Mick

nobody said it was a reversal
but you are very sure " it is a dead cat bounce "

For me the dead cat bounce was from 42 to 70p, now is just moving along around the 50% retracement from the early figures

[stupmy] 10/1/2020 10:32

If it closes out this 2 hour period above 56.75, I will re-enter.

[mick1909] 10/1/2020 10:22

Is it a dead cat bounce It's too early to say if a reversal is taking place

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 10:20

This year's average buy price by volume so far is 58.82

It's a case of "average down now please "

Sucker stock

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 10:17

She is going bananas again after the little pause
Is she saying catch me if you can?
Maybe is saying: buy me if you got any money

Some good size "0" buying trades are showing in the ticker

[maturo] 10/1/2020 10:01

The Grumpy Old Men
Ref. - Congo

You are going to bed too early, there was already a full post late last night

+++++++++++++++++
darmytom

F#ck off to your tracker after having a manure shower

[pro_s2009] 10/1/2020 10:01

JP Morgan - I think they are expecting some kitchen sink work to be done - throw all the bad news out asap and get the slate clean.



“On the other foot Tullow Oil’s outlook deteriorated with its most recent update, and we suggest avoiding the shares in early 2020"


.

[the grumpy old men] 10/1/2020 09:24

Congo covets Gertler's oil blocks on Ugandan border - Bloomberg
Jan. 9, 2020 1:18 PM ET|About: Tullow Oil plc (TUWLF)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The Democratic Republic of Congo government is forming a plan to take back two oil blocks from sanctioned Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler and sell them, and has talked to Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWLF) about purchasing a stake in licenses along the country's border with Uganda, Bloomberg reports.

The blocks could be a natural fit for Tullow and Total (NYSE:TOT) - which reportedly has showed some interest - since the two companies already share rights to adjoining areas on the Ugandan side of Lake Albert, where more than 1B barrels of oil have been discovered.

The Congo licenses have long been viewed as potentially holding large discoveries, but proper exploration has been held up for years by legal and political disputes.

[yidarmytom] 10/1/2020 09:22

If anyone on here wants to make circa 20% p.a. over a long period invest in a U.S. tracker fund - I've made 289% in 10 years invested in Blackrock U.S. Equity Tracker, instead of MINUS 95% invested in this pile of manure

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 09:17

Lazarus time to wake UP, and up she goes like no tomorrow

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 09:10

Have we seen the bottom?

Not the bottom of "whites" mattress

But maybe the bottom of his losses

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 09:05

Is going to move up when less expected

[wodahsnoom] 10/1/2020 08:53

Ghana, Uganda, Kenya and DRC - the start of the "Pan African" oil company our latest investor thinks is the future for TLW???

[teamwork1] 10/1/2020 08:29

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-09/congo-wants-to-sell-gertler-s-oil-blocks-on-ugandan-border

[master rsi] 09/1/2020 23:36

Congo Wants to Sell Gertler’s Oil Blocks on Ugandan Border
Michael Kavanagh and William Clowes - Bloomberg - January 9, 2020
Sanctioned billionaire could receive as much as $150 million
Tullow discussed Lake Albert blocks with Congo’s government

The Democratic Republic of Congo is forming a plan to take back two oil blocks from sanctioned Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler and sell them to another company.

The Congolese government has talked to Tullow Oil Plc about purchasing a stake in the Lake Albert licenses along the country’s border with Uganda, said four people with knowledge of the discussions. Total SA and Eni SpA had also showed some interest, two of the people said.

The blocks could be a natural fit for Tullow and Total, which already share rights to adjoining areas on the Ugandan side of the lake where more than a billion barrels of oil have been discovered. The Congo licenses have long been regarded as having the potential for large discoveries, but proper exploration has been held up for years by legal and political wrangling.

Any deal would be difficult because Gertler is subject to U.S. sanctions, the people said. The American government accused the Israeli billionaire in 2017 of amassing a fortune through “opaque and corrupt mining and oil deals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo” and using “his close friendship with DRC President Joseph Kabila to act as a middleman for mining asset sales.” Gertler has repeatedly denied all accusations of wrongdoing.

Total didn’t respond to requests for comment. Tullow declined to comment. Eni said in an emailed statement that it isn’t interested in the blocks.

Complex Negotiations
Congo’s production sharing agreements for oil blocks 1 and 2 are with two of Gertler’s companies, Caprikat Ltd. and Foxwhelp Ltd. Both are sanctioned, as is the company that manages them, Oil of DRCongo. In May, Congo’s oil ministry extended the rights to the permits until June 2021.

To start the transfer process, state-owned oil company Sonahydroc would first take over the Congolese government’s 15% interest in each of the two blocks, according to two of the people and an August letter sent by former interim oil minister, John Kwet Mwan Kwet, to Congo’s president, Felix Tshisekedi, which was seen by Bloomberg News. Gertler’s companies would then fully relinquish their 85% stake in the blocks to Sonahydroc.

A new partner would then take those 85% holdings in the blocks, setting up a joint venture with Sonahydroc, according to the letter and the people. That arrangement with the state oil company could let Congo avoid an open tender process, which would be required if the permits fully reverted to the state, said one of the people. Congo has set up a monitoring committee to handle “the complexity of the negotiations,” according to the letter.

Sonahydroc declined to comment, while Congo’s Oil Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Compensation Payment
Gertler’s company Oil of DRCongo said by email that it has spent 150 million euros ($167 million) to explore and develop the blocks. The Oil Ministry letter gave a lower figure of $135 million, while an archived version of the website of Gertler’s Fleurette Group from 2017 said they’d spent only $100 million.

If the proposed transaction were completed, Gertler’s company could receive compensation of as much as $150 million, two of the people said.

“Oil of DRCongo is ready to listen positively to proposals from potential partners upon the condition that they have the capability, experience and intent to invest in the DRC without hesitation or question,” the company said by email. The blocks hold about 3 billion barrels of oil in place, according to the Fleurette Group’s 2017 web page.

Tullow has a long history in the Lake Albert region, starting to drill on the Ugandan side in 2006 and eventually discovering about 1.7 billion barrels of contingent oil resources. The London-based company signed a production sharing agreement for the two blocks in Congo in 2006, but never received the required authorization from Kabila. He gave the licenses to Caprikat and Foxwhelp in 2010, prompting Tullow to initiate legal action, which was later withdrawn.