Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 17:20

Somebody always knows something. I've based most positions on that fact for many many years

They know the unknown. .in the money

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 17:16

It's the unknowns we seek..not what we should forget. ..

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 17:15

I uses to always do that stumpy. So I changed a bit.

Run a 30 book. Only select new one when one is closed out. And just weed the garden a bit daily. Adjust.

[stupmy] 09/1/2020 17:13

SR and the experts on the bb's are often great at analysing known knowns, but weak at factoring in known unknowns (e.g. carapa until a few days ago) and simply ignore the possibility that there could be unknown unknowns.

[stupmy] 09/1/2020 17:12

At the end of the day it is SR, money management should underpin eveything. Don't get obsessed with a single share. Look for opportunities and exploit them. Also, most of the work in trading seems to be forcing yourself to do nothing. I'll bet that is the reason that so many use bb's. I have other things I also do that are designed for force myself to do nothing. For me, when I get bored I can give in to impulse. That's not a good thing.

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 17:10

I always say this..

I'm always right...because I know when I'm wrong

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 17:09

90% of my monthly or yearly return ain't down to winners . It's risk management. Easy manage profit side

[teamwork1] 09/1/2020 17:08

I can only hope and see if it recovers.only need 2 good statement from the board

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 17:08

All down to management stumpy isn't it. You could be the best or middle of the road at identifying positions. Middle of the road man wins if the best identifier has no management

[stupmy] 09/1/2020 17:03

As SR says, really the mistake was the stops and too much confidence in a single stock. In hindsight it's easy to say throwing 10 grand in at 40p would have solved it, but you have to do it before it happens and there's no guarantee it will work. It's much more difficult when you bogged down that's for sure. Never throw all of your allocated funds into the market at once (even if it's multiple shares). There are always surprises (well often). Best to have a fixed percent exposure and hold some back with some rules about how you will use it. i.e. don't leave the portion that isn't meant to be exposed to the market at risk overnight. Could be lots of other rules, but the biggest obstacle to making a profit on the markets is you. I don't mean that in a bad way, I'm just suggesting you learn about you to figure out what your particular weaknesses are, they will be different to mine. Since they will be different to mine, the methods that work for you, will differ from mine even if they are based on similar assumptions. I can. Never, ever believe that you can see into the future, you can't. Also don't believe the experts on the bb's, whatever they say, they can't see the future either. No matter how impressive their knowledge, how clever they tell you they are and how convincing their arguments are, most of them ae losing money. Many of them are losing a lot of money. Go read through the XEL bb's on iii (check out Flossofa; he lost millions while telling the world that he was right). You have to go your own way. You can learn a lot from others, but you need to work at it yourself. Would you buy insurance from the gypsy at your door (experts on bb's) or would you go searching for a reliable method of assessing the best insurance policies on the market. I hope you'd not go with the gypsies.

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 16:53

Forget averaging down. ..if you were wrong at first position . 2nd position is notvwhere you expected price to be. Starting to depend on luck

Some do build position in part lots. Which is OK too as long as u did what stumpy said... identify where the city investor class may operate

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 16:52

Use stops. Fixed risk every position. If your fixed risk is 5000 and one stop is 10% on one share and 5% on another.. the risk should be equal anyway

You buy at x price today because you think it's value. .what price do you think the other side have taken back control? Fixed risk ends there

[teamwork1] 09/1/2020 16:48

My mistake was I should have bought like 10k worth of shares in tlw at 40p my average would have been 67p. Then sold out without losing any.

[teamwork1] 09/1/2020 16:47

Thanks for advice, I don't think I can put anymore in.

[sentimentrules] 09/1/2020 16:35

Dead duck guys. Called all short alerts at the close

[wodahsnoom] 09/1/2020 16:33

Yes Les Wood has shown as much faith in TLW as the rest of the directors over the years - only prepared to increase their holdings via various options/share schemes i.e not putting their own cash where their mouths are.

Stupmy - I agree with most of what you say. Those that keep saying that TLW have failed to pay back loans or have broken covenants, as a means to frighten investors on this forum are idiots. The amount of debt is a worry if production drops as forecast but TLW HAS NOT DEFAULTED and will not for at least 12 months. But what nobody has put forward is that maybe TLW was overvalued before all this happened and the debacle before Christmas was an excuse to mark it down - admittedly completely overdone.

[teamwork1] 09/1/2020 16:25

I'm in at 2.50 but bought more after the drop and now my average is 1.60

[stupmy] 09/1/2020 16:17

teamwork, if you believe TLW is safe, then you've certainly got big opportunity cost, but could theoretically trade your way out of your loss, but you'll need more money and you'll need to pick your entries and exits wisely. If you don't know how to do that and just want to hub and hold, then you should read and learn or sit and wait. It's not impossible that the share price will come back up substantially, but it's also not out of the question that it drops. The annoucements in January and February have the markets on edge. We need to get those out of the way before we can start to see any light at the end of this tunnel if there is any.
The quick change in production forecast is I imagine related to the rapid exit of the CEO and Explorations officer, but we need to find out what that is all about.

[master rsi] 09/1/2020 16:14

Les Wood (CFO) of TLW
has managed to buy 751x2 shares total 1502 @ £0.6008 or the 1st lot but nil for the second for £451.20 on the 6th January 2020

[master rsi] 09/1/2020 16:05

Somw recovery in the Oil price after almost being a $1 down is on half of that.

I can not say the same for the TLW share price is staying at bottom 55p double bottom in the Intraday chart

[teamwork1] 09/1/2020 16:04

I'm down like 8k it might not be soo much for someone but its 8k. Its really painful to see this share go down so much.

[pro_s2009] 09/1/2020 16:01

teamwork1 - all about the debt.

Same with GKP in the past and many other oil companies. if you borrow loads of money and then fail to pay back in time or you break the covenants........then the only way out of it is massive massive dilution.

One reason I like PTAL very much - growing oil production - minimal debts makes it a cash generation machine - already paid a maiden interim dividend.

Big debts that they cannot service is the downfall of many smaller oil companies.

[teamwork1] 09/1/2020 16:01

I think the management needs to answer few questions, like how come in November statement production was 89k now 70k. How can they change in less then a month.