Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 20:01

Small oilies cant hedge the market like this. Whipping a dead horse

i know thats all by-the-by as far as buy side trading goes knocking out 10/20%Rs

But a longterm hold? nah

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 19:53

Well energy was the worst performing global sector in 2019.

Many will punt it as "a bad cycle".

Others will see it as a pointer to the longer term

Of course bulls didnt have Climate agreements, Alternatives or indeed ESG investing coming to the fore, in the past

Saudi is basically willing to sell crude in the 30's WTI. Better to get something, than just be dead assets in the ground later. 100 bucks a barrel, will only make the alternative costs seem attractive, and accelerate them.

Impressive investing from them into alternatives and other industries. Its like the horse's mouth telling ya - the outlook.

Crude has a role to play. But good profit means reduced life expectancy of the industry really

What do they do?

[littlepuppi7] 06/1/2020 19:40

He is pretty stupid. I would not bet against it!

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 19:40

Screw it anyway. If im wrong its not an issue

i do same mometary risk no matter what i am in - at these Mcaps.

Just another digit. Wins or loses. Next

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 19:35

Risk side:

if something made retail rally? It will be value shorting of the highest order by funds. Imo

Simply because no buy side to fight

So rns etc not really a concern

Even if they come out with something great - the funds would flip retail from being the low buyers, to being the high

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 19:33

I get that. Why now and not 210p zone etc

well, it wasnt in my watchlist prior. Answers that bit

As for shorting the low - im not seeing the risk. Seeing no reason to buy so the low isnt as bad a short value as you may think. Still being distributed

Was a lot of buying 10-13th of december. But the money never matched the accumulations ie not fund buying. Retail.

That matches the bigger picture ie pure distribution from 9th Dec and no stealth accumulations.

And list goes on but just my own analysis.

Crude is up 4.92% at the moment from Dec 9th, so it does explain retail buying via commodity .

There are lots of bits and pieces but it boils down to: high risk is buy side at the mo. Even a 5-10% bounce would just be retail induced on current analysis. No problem there

[auson1] 06/1/2020 19:06

SentimentRules,

I don't believe you would be short here at this price.

[auson1] 06/1/2020 19:06

SentimentRules,

I don't believe you would be short here at this price.

[waldron] 06/1/2020 18:37

luvin it

cheers and take care

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 18:35

Live in a beautiful place, not that you need telling lol

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 18:34

Waldron = here is part of an article titled: Why Tullow Oil is trading 5% lower despite oil discovery
02 January 2020, 10:08

Gives all the negative stuff - and this is the brightside stuff:

LOOKING ON THE BRIGHT SIDE

Irish broker Davy believes that the well result should be welcomed since it confirms an extension of the Cretaceous play into the Kanuku licence, while the oil quality (API and sulphur content) is also very acceptable.

Yet the important point is that ‘at the current location, the reservoir thickness is sub-optimal and not commercial.’

‘Our preliminary analysis points to a couple of things. The overall Guyana play is still very much a viable target but for now is likely to be focused on the Cretaceous – both in the Kanuku and Orinduik blocks.

'However, the current year is likely to be largely one of study of the 2019 three-well programme with further drilling confined to the end of the year, if at all, and more likely to be part of a 2021 programme,’ the broker said.
...........

Its an ok magazine for somebody like me who is layman in a particular sector. Gives a simple and concise understanding each time. But maybe not for those who are 'deeply involved' in a particular sector

But either way - i think consensus prices the best - for me, not targets. But great for Acc/Dis

[waldron] 06/1/2020 18:27

SentimentRules
6 Jan '20 - 18:00 - 39276 of 39278
0 0 0
@ waldron

I put in a few consensus overlays . Example from broker houses etc. And back tested to find which consensus was getting the most action in the last 6 years

Sharesmagazine actually seems to be the most reliable consensus. Would you agree?

In terms of market action. ie not a bad number to assess Acc/Dis

I DO THE SAME REGARDING CONSENSUS TARGETS
A LIDDLE BIT OF DIS AND A LIDDLE BIT OF DAT

MUST ADMIT, NOT FAMILIAR WITH Sharesmagazine

WILL TAKE A PEEK IF POSSIBLE


MY PORTFOLIOS COVER EUROPEAN BLUE CHIPS

IN MAIN FRENCH AND SWISS, ALTHOUGH OIL MAJORS AND MINERS THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE


I live in france in the greater geneva area

[sbb1x] 06/1/2020 18:08

Totally agree.

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 18:06

Such a variance between the major consensus baskets. You could literally just pick one to suit a point re bull or bear. So i like SM for overall balance

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 18:00

@ waldron

I put in a few consensus overlays . Example from broker houses etc. And back tested to find which consensus was getting the most action in the last 6 years

Sharesmagazine actually seems to be the most reliable consensus. Would you agree?

In terms of market action. ie not a bad number to assess Acc/Dis

[leoneobull] 06/1/2020 17:59

I feel like I've been kicked in the Cretaceous. OIl price up, share price of most in sector down

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 17:51

And of course what people use within the windows will vary too .

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 17:51

Its all an 'operation within windows' SBB

Of course, it will still cause debate because many people use different boxes/windows

Mine is around 81p to 21p

A bit wide, but thats down to Tullow in December. Not normally like that but still is the box.

[waldron] 06/1/2020 17:27

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 68.87 +0.39%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.75 +0.26%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.12 +0.52%
(WTI) 63.18 USD -0.97%


FTSE 100
7,575.34 -0.62%
Dow Jones
28,571.51 -0.22%
CAC 40
6,013.59 -0.51%
SBF 120
4,727.88 -0.52%
Euro STOXX 50
3,752.52 -0.46%
DAX
13,126.99 -0.70%
Ftse Mib
23,581.29 -0.51%

Eni
14.316 +1.49%

Total
50.44 +0.12%

Engie
14.705 +0.10%



Bp
504.1 +2.03%

Vodafone
147.08 -0.58%

Royal Dutch Shell A
2,309 +0.46%

Royal Dutch Shell B
2,313.5 +0.30%

Tullow
Price (GBX) 59.48 -0.87% (Down -0.52)

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 16:57

WTI 5702 is the average price paid by end of 2019.

New year level at 62.81.. a lot of high buyers so the lower mark makes sense re 2019 for funds involved.

So they will have the calcs out now percentage cracking and weighing up, profit risk to more from trump lol

Can understand 59.75 as a bigger players book out but as always - an element like US?IRAN where both parties are unpredictable - toughy

[waldron] 06/1/2020 16:55

Price (GBX) 59.48 Var % (+/-) -0.87% (Down -0.52)

High 61.20 Low 59.40

Volume 14,004,228 Last close 59.48 on 06-Jan-2020

Bid 59.52 Offer 59.68

Trading status Closing Price Crossing Special conditions NONE




FINISHED THE DAY BY SLIPPING INTO THE 40 to 60p BOX

to be confirmed thursday morning

[orkneyarab] 06/1/2020 16:52

SR ruining this board with his self obsessed rubbish, best ignored or do the opposite

[sentimentrules] 06/1/2020 16:43

WTI crude current 63.30 / 59.75 is likely over the next few days - without further iran/US issues of course

hard to gauge that one for sure