Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[dijon52] 09/12/2019 18:59

Might buy in at 10p

[amaretto1] 09/12/2019 18:56

How do they service the debt with only 70,000 bpd ?? If oil goes anywhere near 60 They are bust in current shapeFACT !!!

[whites123] 09/12/2019 18:56

hermanngoring9 Dec '19 - 18:53 - 36484 of 36485
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oil analyst on Bloomberg just stated "game over" for Tullow

He expects administration next spring


With in excess of a year headroom with no immediate serviceable debt requirements. With great assets and drills in action it sounds like rather a silly billy statement to be making.. Would love, I mean love to see this interview. Do you have a name for this Analyst?

[whites123] 09/12/2019 18:53

amaretto19 Dec '19 - 18:41 - 36479 of 36482
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Its foooooked.... it won’t survive all this.


Nice insightful well thought out and posted synopsis..
Thanks massively for that input...
There was I wondering if I had maybe read the report incorrectly and maybe the bond holders had also gotten it wrong and then thankfully along you come with this wonderful analysis.

[hermanngoring] 09/12/2019 18:53

oil analyst on Bloomberg just stated "game over" for Tullow

He expects administration next spring

[dealy] 09/12/2019 18:52

has lost 2.6 billion in market cap over the last 2 months. Very scary.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 18:51

bones6989 Dec '19 - 18:32 - 36478 of 36480
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Current mkt cap 560m
2.9bn debts looks horrific given lack of profits in high production
Not very profitable production from it's fields and poor fields performance

Has some value in assets but mkt cap looks very high and financing becomes an issue . That debt won't get paid and will be a diabolical rights issue wiping out share holders . Another afren I'm afraid . The debt will kill this now


WOW: Debt was known prior to the fall out of today, and was also known (In fact it was higher) last trading update..
Its not all about size (Although you clearly think so) but about can it be serviced. And the answer to that is.... YES.... with POO at $60 the debt can be serviced and obligations met... At $65 it becomes FCF so easier to service debt. With increased production it again becomes easier to service debt. With an asset sale or two then debt becomes reduced even quicker.
There is also > $1 Billion of headroom.
So forgive me if I laugh at your comments.. Its not laughing at you as I am certain you believed you were providing a decent insight for those that may read and digest your diatribe.

[thumper1] 09/12/2019 18:47

afren just read the tea leafs

[theblackbaron] 09/12/2019 18:46

Bounce soon

[amaretto1] 09/12/2019 18:41

Its foooooked.... it won't survive all this.

[bones698] 09/12/2019 18:32

Current mkt cap 560m
2.9bn debts looks horrific given lack of profits in high production
Not very profitable production from it's fields and poor fields performance

Has some value in assets but mkt cap looks very high and financing becomes an issue . That debt won't get paid and will be a diabolical rights issue wiping out share holders . Another afren I'm afraid . The debt will kill this now

[zen12] 09/12/2019 18:30

This 12 Feb review is immensely important and appointment of new CEO, will dictate if the market sees a turnaround."The Board has, however, been disappointed by the performance of Tullow's business and now needs time to complete its thorough review of operations. A full financial and operational update will be provided at Tullow's Full Year Results on 12 February 2020, with an update on progress to be given in the Group's Trading Statement on 15 January 2020.

[goblin99] 09/12/2019 18:27

3 main issues with Afren - 1) Nose dive of the POO. 2) Unable to refinance circa £100M is debt. 3) Backhanders and dodgy dealings from some senior management & Nigerian Co's. 1 is linked to 2, and ultimately 1 will dictate what happens here.

[minerve 2] 09/12/2019 18:24

Happy Christmas folks!

[zen12] 09/12/2019 18:24

Yes remember Afren...it has all the hallmarks of it. One of my worst!

[eodfire] 09/12/2019 18:23

Good post. Thanks.

[wodahsnoom] 09/12/2019 18:20

BoD did not « get out » they were kicked out. Probably two years late but better late than never.

[aimshares] 09/12/2019 18:18

Very brutal today ,some off my friends bought in the high 60s?,I feel for them ,lucky I did not dip my toe in ,I don't no how to call it,if it is going to go up or down in the next few days ,will be staying on the side lines ,but for my friends sake who invested quite a lot of money I hope the price goes up for them.

[hermanngoring] 09/12/2019 18:13

Afren mark 2

[whites123] 09/12/2019 18:12

So many experts, all predicting doom and gloom and mocking... yes mocking those that are down after todays bloodbath. (Strange folk, yet sadly indicative of how people would rather watch a car crash as opposed to helping some one who has fallen get back up).

The cessation of dividend... Absolutely 100% the right thing to do..
Debt was already known prior todays announcement, and based on production was easy to establish how the debt would be serviced.
Emphasis on POO falling, whilst TLW will have hedged much of the production.
Ongoing drills... Carapa results expected very soon.
The dismissal of 2 execs... Been called for since as far as I can remember, so people got what they wanted.
As mentioned drop in guidance of some 14% vs 70% drop in equity vs 12% drop on the bonds...
Asset sales. Lots of great licenses and should find buyer(s) relatively quickly, although there is no need for a fire sale as > $1 Billion headroom with no near term debt maturity.

I have not got the foggiest what happened today..
On paper it was certainly due a drop... The more recent 25% drop from November I thought was harsh.. I expected a drop maybe inline with the bonds, a 10% drop at close of play, but 70%... When we say something is afoot its normally 12 inches, but in this case, I am not suggesting conspiracy theories, nor insider information regards Carapa, but moreso a herd like mentality coupled with BOTS.
We now need a "250%" increase to restart the day from whence we fell..
Certainly it can and should and will reclaim this if we can secure some stability and start to receive news that isnt doom and gloom.

A heavyweight CEO for a start.
Director purchases.
Carapa hitting the sweet stuff.
Joe to be announced as commercially viable.
An stable (Increasing POO)
Downtime on rigs sorted.
Sale on some Assets.
Brexit / Election (Right party elected)

All of these or a combination could and should add the pence back on... But 250% just to get back to £1.40. I almost think not, one of the reasons I have taken to averaging down.
Predators, again I think not as any one of TLW assets could be bought for the right price.
I think today has happened in the main because of hysteria. People selling because others are, the fear it may fall further, all these add up to create the perfect storm and I believe that is what we have just witnessed.

My opinion is strong buy based purely on what we know which is endorsed and covered by RNS regulations.
Majority posting here is Strong sell based on the fact they have no financial interest in TLW but like to see people lose money and create discord.

[costax1654x] 09/12/2019 18:06

Carapa will release the pressure!If duster 25p If heavy oil 35p,light oil 70p!Let the fun begin

[filterwest] 09/12/2019 18:06

The fall is brutal.