Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[dodge meister] 09/12/2019 15:48

This feels like the Glencoe sell off a couple of years ago...a refocus and the share price rocketed

[spawny100] 09/12/2019 15:47

Falling knife today indeed. Watch it sink into close now. Probably finish at 35 at this rate.

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 15:45

all hail 30's all hail 30's

[whites123] 09/12/2019 15:45

American Idiot9 Dec '19 - 15:42 - 36273 of 36274
0 0 0
The equity is as good as worthless here Whites123.

Debt mountain of $2.9B

Whilst they can currently service their debts there leaves very little to pay down the debt and no room whatsoever for any further decline in production.

2020 Group production is forecast to average between 70,000 and 80,000 bopd. Group production for the following three years is expected to average around 70,000 bopd.

OUCH ! No growth for the next 3 years ahead. It's had it.

WOW.....

No asset sales, no discoveries, Carapa and Joe worthless, non TLW operated ventures also worthless? POO at what price?

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 15:44

See the money wanna stay, for your meal
Get another piece of pie, for your wife
Everybody wanna know, how it feel
Everybody wanna see, what it's like

Me and Missy is so very busy busy making money
Alright...

All step back, I'm 'bout to dance
The greenback boogie

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 15:44

we taking it down down down, down down down

[theapplefreak] 09/12/2019 15:44

If you could see the future. You'd have bought in ;)

[newbytothis] 09/12/2019 15:43

Feel sorry for the peeps holding from The heady heights of Friday just gone

[whites123] 09/12/2019 15:43

Hawkind9 Dec '19 - 15:40 - 36269 of 36271
0 1 0
3billion debt, heavy oil probably commercially unviable. Management gone. Is that enough, what the focks to explain it is black and white. Get out now or you will lose it all.


Probably not commercially viable.... Nice work there... Is that the company take on it?

Asset value?
Increasing production in non TLW operated fields.
Carapa?
Licenses?

Not sure you have really covered everything in your What the focks to explain" post

[american idiot] 09/12/2019 15:42

The equity is as good as worthless here Whites123.

Debt mountain of $2.9B

Whilst they can currently service their debts there leaves very little to pay down the debt and no room whatsoever for any further decline in production.

2020 Group production is forecast to average between 70,000 and 80,000 bopd. Group production for the following three years is expected to average around 70,000 bopd.

OUCH ! No growth for the next 3 years ahead. It's had it.

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 15:42

TheAppleFreak, your feed is delayed, i c da future, you are 60mins behind...

[whites123] 09/12/2019 15:41

Hawkind9 Dec '19 - 15:36 - 36262 of 36267
0 2 0
Alan Sugar. Would he buy the company for 1bn with 3bn debt. Some crazy fockers buying in. Unbelievable really.


Quite a statement to make..
What value the assets please hawkwind?
What of production and value to bidders.
What of FCF at just $60

Look forward to reading your analysis as opposed to 2 figures plucked from forums.

Thanks in advance.

[iamgreat1] 09/12/2019 15:40

40p by close then it's on its way to 30p

[hawkind] 09/12/2019 15:40

3billion debt, heavy oil probably commercially unviable. Management gone. Is that enough, what the focks to explain it is black and white. Get out now or you will lose it all.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 15:39

American Idiot9 Dec '19 - 15:35 - 36261 of 36263
0 1 0
Just think...$150m FCF each year all paying debt down/ TEN years time they will still be $1.4B in debt...and the oil will sure be running dry.

Based on what?
POO staying where it is.
No sale of assets.
No further discoveries.

Please explain your rational... I look forward to reading your analysis which has lead you to make this 10 year forecast.

Thanks in advance.

[theapplefreak] 09/12/2019 15:39

Last I checked it's still in the 40s

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 15:37

debt covenants!!! go figure

[rumobejo] 09/12/2019 15:37

50p RIP
40p RIP
30p
20p
10p
etc

[whites123] 09/12/2019 15:37

ohdearohdearohdear9 Dec '19 - 15:31 - 36257 of 36258
0 0 0
Rights Issue will be below 30p imo. Best to wait until then before buying for the medium term.

Hawkind9 Dec '19 - 15:33 - 36258 of 36258
0 0 0
Debt is crippling. Anyone buying in, kiss goodbye to your money. This will soon go bust. Debt is insurmountable.

Please explain why? Either of you your explanations will be greatly appreciated.
Because at $60 debt is serviceable.
We know TLW has a lot of production hedged at > $65
TLW has valuable assets for sale.
TLW is still forecasting Free Cash flow.
TLW has some great licenses.
TLW has > $1 Billion headroom.

So, please explain why you made you comments?

Thanks in advance.

[hawkind] 09/12/2019 15:36

Alan Sugar. Would he buy the company for 1bn with 3bn debt. Some crazy fockers buying in. Unbelievable really.

[american idiot] 09/12/2019 15:35

Just think...$150m FCF each year all paying debt down...TEN years time they will still be $1.4B in debt...and the oil will sure be running dry.

[theapplefreak] 09/12/2019 15:34

Seems to have been stead for some time now. People will come to their senses and stop listen to the deramping crews. Money to be made here. Recovery to at least 60p in short term.

[stupmy] 09/12/2019 15:34

Well it looks like no bounce coming tomorrow. I suspect there's no rush to buy now. There'll be lots more positions to be rationalised at the best available price. That could dampen any rises for a while.

[hawkind] 09/12/2019 15:33

Debt is crippling. Anyone buying in, kiss goodbye to your money. This will soon go bust. Debt is insurmountable.