Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 12/8/2019 00:23

Looks like a swap.
One un-identified (maybe Pacific Leader?) left rig bound for T&T(?)
Pacific Harrier left T&T bound for Guy Offshore ETA 05:00 on the 13th.

[xxnjr] 09/8/2019 18:07

Yes I remember that BCall. Shell not immune from mistakes either, like exiting Rajasthan before Cairn found a lot of oil on that block. Shell's biggest mistake.... Exiting Stabroek block in Guyana, which they used to share with Exxon. That left Exxon with 100%, before farm down to Hess/CNOOC. Total ended up with 100% of French Guyane after Tullow/Shell left after Zaedyus. Total drilled a well there recently, and I think now Total have left. I guess the oil just wasn't there in commercial quantities.

[bootycall] 09/8/2019 17:34

Fair point xxnjr... Just remember it was Shell who ultimately chose the exploration targets in French Guyana... not Tullow who preferred different prospects. I was told this before drilling in case you think I am making it up .

[xxnjr] 09/8/2019 16:32

If we are successful in Guyana with current well thank ExxonMobil. The Tertiary wasn't even on TLW's radar until Exxon unlocked the code with Hammerhead. Had it not been for that, Tullow would have be drilling in the Upper Cretaceous.

[xxnjr] 09/8/2019 16:05

Bizarre thing is pondering and lethargic Shell are in great shape today. Reduced their head count massively. Reduced their cost base. Tens of billions of dollars of divestments. Upgraded their E&P assets to higher netback production. Fighting fit and throwing off cash, whilst simultaneously paying out a massive dividend stream. I think Shell make more money at $60/bbl than they used to at $100/bbl. One could say much the same of Total, Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ENI even. If only Tullow could emulate a tiny fraction of that success.

[billy_buffin] 09/8/2019 13:36

Sounds like a case for someone from Elliott Management Corp on the board!

[subsurface] 09/8/2019 11:36

Hi Navan I think Kenya and Uganda act as an insurance policy to prevent a take over,Who would want them?
like you I have often wondered why the big share holders don,t shake the tree.

Tullow management reward themselves for failure,and many investors seem to have lost confidence in them.

In North Kenya they still have water problems did not get enough rain fall for the farmers and Tullow need water too.

The low Price of Oil is going to feed through to Tullow,s FCF so we do need some good news.

I suggested to them in January that they ditch the dead wood, shrink the company and then move forwards, they have good cash flow from Ghana and the None operated
assets and good prospects to drill to grow the business.

[navan99x] 09/8/2019 10:58

Been wondering for years why not been a hostile takeover launched, are there no activist shareholders who could shake the tree?? or at least get them to ditch the dead wood....

[xxnjr] 09/8/2019 08:22

If you click on ADVFN's 'financials' link above, shows

M Cap: £2487m
Net Debt: £5930m

Says it all.

[hsfinch] 09/8/2019 07:46

One of the worst run companies in the patch. Heavey was utterly clueless and ran the head count up to mad levels. Literally hundreds on the payroll in Ghana. And hundreds of duffers in London. They've still got 3 HQs...Dublin, London and Capetown with lots of travelling in between. Unforgivable in this day and age. If they come up trumps in Guyana, staff will breathe a sigh of relief and carry on sponging up shareholder funds. Best thing that could happen here is a takeover to put long suffering PIs out of their misery.

[xxnjr] 09/8/2019 00:22

Ok thanks itsyou. That makes sense.

Yep - there's no hope for Tullow, unless they have a total clear out.
1000+ employees (or so) doing what? So many mistakes and costly missteps.
The CEO lives in cloud cuckoo land. Should be sacked.

43% COS seems high for TLW. Hammerhead helps, but if I remember Jethro is in a different canyon/fan system to Lisa (Essequibo, not Berbice).... I stopped looking about 2 yrs ago ;-) Basically Tullow haven't drilled a successful high impact off shore well for about 7 or 8 or more years!

Still.... a reversion to mean may work in their favour.

[subsurface] 09/8/2019 00:13

Itsyou.
They did get 60% of a very good Position very early on in Guyana,But you are right on attitude and past failure.there is some discussion as to how they might come up with the numbers on the ECO site.
An Elephant discovery will get us back on track!.

[itsyou] 08/8/2019 19:31

So does the drilling one of Tripletail and Ranger-2 that's underway






Someone's re-using the same template?

As usual, peeps trying to read too much into things as is expected.


The most important thing for me is who is right? Will ECO(Kinley technical people) with 43% cos and 250m bbl, or the old smug guys at TLW(that need to go imo, with their failure on numerous fronts) that still persist with 20-25% cos for these drills and >100m bbl?

TLW appear to not be able to do anything right!

EDIT : apart from their hedging facility

[xxnjr] 08/8/2019 16:24

But that notice is kind of conflicting.
The http link says "drilling" whereas
the text in notice has "45Km2 survey".

[itsyou] 08/8/2019 15:56

xxnjr,

Yes, a crew boat it seems.

Plenty of other Supply Vessels needed at the drilling ship, which needs food, water, general supplies, spares, drilling fluid, etc

The start date of these notices have always been a couple of weeks early than actually happens, with the end dates mentioned always overshooting the actual planned end, so should be ignored.

[xxnjr] 08/8/2019 15:42

what do you make of this one itsyou?


given that Kacey refers to Crew Boat


must be another vessel at some point.

[itsyou] 08/8/2019 15:03

It's not doing a node survey. If it was doing one it would say in the notice on the Marad site, like is the case for every survey Exxon do and give notice on the Marad site.

[diversification] 08/8/2019 14:14

Is that common activity or can more be read into that? The price hardly moved?

[xxnjr] 08/8/2019 14:10

7 x 1,155,586 trades at 179.2p 12:30 to 13:00 hrs

[bullionbabymobile] 08/8/2019 14:08

So we are thinking it’s just a supply vessel rather than doing and node survey.

If it walks like a duck...

[xxnjr] 08/8/2019 13:16

yeah, I know bullionb. Maybe thats a stock photo, taken at another time and place.
P Harrier still looks like an OSV in Marine Traffic photos, and is behaving like an OSV - it's just done a supply trip TT - RIG - Now going back to TT, and is referred to as an OSV by Guyana.Gov.Harbourmaster

OTOH. Evidence to support your argument here

was converted in 2007



So clearly Harrier Explorer not the vessel referenced in that 2017 Onward article as you've pointed out.

I've just done a google search image for Pacific Harrier. All show an unconverted OSV. Have not seen an image of Pacific Harrier in the converted state. Odd. Would be good to see an up to date photo!

Edit: This Swire pdf appears to have been revised in 2019


(Rev 17.0 02/08/2019)

[bullionbaby] 08/8/2019 11:57

Ok maybe I am missing something but here's your two links:

"Pacific Harrier" a normal offshore supply vessel, as per





and then the link to the article talking about adding node survey capabilities to the vessel.



The pictures of the vessels match.

[xxnjr] 08/8/2019 11:36

Ok - its you then itsyou! Good source of information!

bbaby - no reckon PH is a normal "OSV" offshore supply vessel, as opposed to "SV" survey vessel. But as ever, DYOR!