Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 01/8/2019 14:18

Maybe time to buy

[subsurface] 01/8/2019 09:44

Thanks for posts!

[ifthecapfits] 01/8/2019 08:16

you mean this:

Price target
GBp 110
Current price
GBp 72

More success at Hammerhead
● More success at Hammerhead: Hess, one of the partners in the Stabroek block offshore
Guyana, announced successful results for two appraisal wells on the Hammerhead
discovery, pointing to a potential resource upside. Hammerhead straddles the border and
extends to the Orinduik block, where Tullow Oil and Eco Atlantic hold 60% and 15%
respectively. Hess has not updated its resource estimate for Hammerhead and we expect
more colour from Exxon, the operator of the Stabroek block.
● Hammerhead underpins valuations: Hammerhead could be worth c9% and c46% of Tullow
Oil’s and Eco Atlantic’s respective market caps on a fully unrisked basis, assuming a 500mb
discovery and a 15% extension into the Orinduik block, we estimate. The companies’ valuations
would rise to c13% and c69% of their respective market caps assuming a 750mb discovery.
● More details on the Hammerhead appraisal wells: The original Hammerhead discovery
well was followed by two back-to-back appraisal wells. Hess noted that both wells
encountered high-quality sandstone reservoirs. It also highlighted good connectivity across
all three wells and positive mobility on the drill-stem test on the third well.
● All eyes on Jethro-Lobe: Results for the first exploration well on the Orinduik block, the
260mb Jethro-Lobe prospect, are expected imminently. This a Tertiary prospect, similar to
the Hammerhead discovery, with a geological chance of success of 44% as defined by
Gustavson Associates. The partners are planning three back-to-back wells on Orinduik this
year, with Joe scheduled to be the second well in the programme.
● We rate Eco Atlantic a Buy and Tullow Oil a Hold. We value Eco Atlantic and Tullow Oil
using risked NAV methodologies.

[alfiex] 01/8/2019 08:02

Good post on eco board re hammerhead

[xxnjr] 01/8/2019 07:58

Which would require a well on TLW's side to confirm in pressure communication, and maybe more wells to get the resource sizing. It looks like most of H is in XOM's block. If thats the case another possibility could be XOM simply buy the bit of H that is in TLW's block (if it is).

[robizm] 01/8/2019 07:33

It is called unitisation and will share the resource and costs based on how much of the resource is in each block

[subsurface] 01/8/2019 07:19

Hess say very good connectivity between Hammerhead 1,2 and 3 they are in pressure communication ,
If hammerhead does extend into Orinduik block how will they sort it out? any thoughts?

[xxnjr] 31/7/2019 14:17

Hess Results.....

"Exploration and appraisal activity on the Stabroek Block in the second quarter of 2019 was as follows:
Yellowtail: The Yellowtail-1 well encountered approximately 292 feet of high-quality oil-bearing sandstone reservoir and is located approximately 6 miles northwest of the Tilapia discovery. As the fifth discovery in the greater Turbot area, it underpins another potential major development hub.
Hammerhead: The Hammerhead-2 appraisal well, located approximately 0.9 miles from the Hammerhead-1 discovery well, and the Hammerhead-3 appraisal well, located approximately 1.9 miles from Hammerhead-1, were both successfully drilled and encountered high quality, oil bearing sandstone reservoir. A successful drill stem test was also performed on Hammerhead-3. The appraisal results will be evaluated for potential future development."

Discovered Resource upgraded to 6bn now.

meanwhile the TLW drill bit continues it's journey.

Will Angus be elevated to an elated captains table.
Or will he be walking the plank?

[billy_buffin] 31/7/2019 09:32

Guyana: In the announcement on Monday, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, was quoted as thanking the government of Guyana for its collaboration in the farm-in.

[jimarilo] 31/7/2019 00:07

"Eco continues to monitor developments in Namibia, specifically the recent entries by Exxon Mobil and Kosmos Energy"

GBP just announced....

"Initial contacts with counterparties took place in relation to a potential farm-out of PEL 0094 and PEL 0029."

[xxnjr] 30/7/2019 14:03

KOS/RDSB joined at hip in SWA, although Shell have legacy positions from before.

"In October 2018, Kosmos entered into a strategic exploration alliance with Shell Exploration Company to jointly explore in Southern West Africa. Initially the alliance is focusing on Namibia, where Kosmos has acquired interest in Shell-operated block PEL 39. As part of the alliance, the two companies will also jointly evaluate opportunities in adjacent geographies. This alliance is consistent with Kosmos’ strategy of partnering with supermajors to leverage complimentary skill sets. Shell has deep expertise in carbonate plays, while Kosmos brings significant knowledge of the Cretaceous in West Africa. Furthermore by working with Shell, Kosmos has a partner with the expertise to move exploration successes through the development stage efficiently."

[jimarilo] 30/7/2019 13:18

Taken from today's Eco RNS:-
"Eco continues to monitor developments in Namibia, specifically the recent entries by Exxon Mobil and Kosmos Energy, and the planned 2019/20 wells by Total S.A., Exxon, and Royal Dutch Shell plc".

I wonder what other developments they are expecting from Exxon and Kosmos specifically ?

All sorts of cross references with the above players, including Tullow. There is a bigger picture being played out, but as usual, time only will tell what that is

[hsfinch] 30/7/2019 07:47

Tx. Some good points here. But Uganda and Kenya are unlikely to see meaningful production for a decade (or ever in the case of Kenya). Jubilee turret was not the contractors fault else insurance wouldn't have paid Tullow and Kosmos / Anardarko would have sued the contractor. And what about the further development of Jubilee which has stalled for years? Compression problems? And more. I'm hoping for 3 pounds after good result in Guyana.

[subsurface] 30/7/2019 05:04

Divination may be required to answer that,and if I could answer that type of question I would not be sat here.

To make a fortune once is very good but to replicate it is very different!

Eco is a different company from Tullow There business model to get in early let others De Risk,and then farm down let others pay the costs, and make a good profit for its investors,
They only have a small team of people so I guess much would depend on how they invest going forward,they have another opportunity in Namibia but they won.t get it right every time. they will have a nice cash pile and they know how to do a deal they seem to have good judgement and a clear idea of what they want.

Keith Hill looks like a man who knows ,follow him.

[lgraham86] 30/7/2019 03:34

What you think will happen to ECO share price if they are sold?

[subsurface] 30/7/2019 02:41

Having spent some time mulling over events

The first thing that comes to mind is what do Total know that we don,t its a natural way to think however discussions must have been going on for some time, I would not be surprised if they have had talks with Tullow also.

Eventually ECO will sell out they have said that they don.t want to stay around long term, I think Tullow will have to farm down eventually.
So its very positive that we have QP on the job they also have a good credit line if things take off the way they have for Exxon.

Its very good Experience for QP getting into Exploration, if things go well Tullow don,t have the funds for fast track but have very strong partners on hand.

If Tullow are to turn around the company they have to take a chance somewhere along the line keeping hold of the 60% could be it!

[bootycall] 29/7/2019 19:23

hsfinch There have not been many problems with Jubilee as a resevoir(other than sand clogging)...hardly a year goes by without a reserve upgrade and there are still 3/4 of the recoverable reserves to be extracted. The problem with the turret mooring system lays with the contractor. Ten is a more complicated turbidite slope channel. I am struggling to understand why the geologists wanted to drill long horizontals in such an environment. To put some colour on the technical challenge of Enyenra, see right of page 16 :



Tullow has performed exceptionally well with its returns from non operated. If Uganda and Kenya come on stream it could produce over $1bn of gross cash flow yield. At £1 per share i would bank on an MBO in a flash. Not a chance...but i do smell some mischievous posts around exploiting the frustration of the stale bulls.
Mature, underperforming production companies, will be easy pickings for private equity...in my humble opinion of course !

[alfiex] 29/7/2019 16:40

Looking very vulnerable now, even if Guyana comes in i dont think it would go much over 2 if we are lucky.

[hsfinch] 29/7/2019 15:50

Hard to know or rather guess where this is going. A duster in Guyana, more problems with Jubilee and it's heading down to a pound. A gusher in Guyana, more wells in Ghana to sustain Jubilee and it's four pounds.

[mcsean2164] 29/7/2019 13:45

With all this activity, it's horrendous that we are still sub £2. Ah well....

[xxnjr] 29/7/2019 11:37

The drill bit will guide us!

[bootycall] 29/7/2019 11:20

I can understand why Quatar might diversify but I am puzzled as to why Total would structure something this way. I thought they would have wanted to build a more strategic partnership with Tullow considering their overlapping interests!
The majors are slowly returning to Africa but largely for operated interests.

[bootycall] 29/7/2019 11:20

I can understand why Quatar might diversify but I am puzzled as to why Total would structure something this way. I thought they would have wanted to build a more strategic partnership with Tullow considering their overlapping interests!
The majors are slowly returning to Africa but largely for operates interests.